这篇内容是对 A16Z 加密货币团队发布的“2024 年加密货币状态报告”的总结，讨论了加密货币的采用情况、基础设施、应用以及它与国家对话的关系。讨论由 Robert Hackett 主持，Darren Motsuoka 和 Eddie Lazarin 参与。 该报告旨在提供对加密货币行业全面的视角，分析数据、趋势和专家意见。它被定位为在社交媒体时代信息洪流中暂停片刻，评估累积进展的一种方式。该报告试图通过图表、简单的解释来普及复杂的加密货币概念，避免使用过于专业的技术术语。 报告的核心是衡量市场规模，解决其规模的根本问题。跨区块链的活跃地址已达到 2.2 亿的历史新高，移动钱包用户也达到了 2700 万的峰值。然而，由于假名性和创建多个地址的容易性（女巫攻击），活跃地址可能是一个具有误导性的指标。报告详细说明了，在一个存在空投等经济激励措施的领域，存在通过创建大量地址来最大化奖励从而操纵系统的重大动机。这些奖励最容易从低成本的区块链中提取。 为了解决这个问题，报告试图使用链上分析和取证来过滤掉机器人和女巫账户。一种方法是过滤掉在一个时期的开始和结束时余额都接近于零的地址。这个标准意味着与机器人相关的瞬时性，而真正的用户通常会保留余额以供未来的费用使用。他们进行的另一项分析涉及交易频率，以确定该地址是低质量用户、机器人还是女巫账户。往好了说，他们是低质量的，往坏了说，他们是机器人。 通过评估潜在用户的数量上限，A16Z 转而通过查看链下数据，特别是钱包用户来估算下限。流行的钱包 MetaMask 报告称，2 月份的月活跃用户为 3000 万，其中约 30% 进行了交易，产生了 1000 万至 1500 万的交易用户。通过估算 MetaMask 的市场份额，该报告推断出加密货币用户的总数。根据他们的分析，他们估计今天有 3000 万到 6000 万实际月度交易加密货币用户，仅占活跃地址的相对较小比例（14-27%），以及仅占加密货币所有者总数的 5-10%，表明存在将现有所有者转化为活跃用户的潜力。 Solana 和 Base 等特定区块链，以及比特币，因其活跃性而受到关注。报告表明，更便宜的交易是一个巨大的驱动因素。比特币在基于机器人的生态系统中的相对不活跃，以及该生态系统中产品/应用程序的增加，使该团队有信心认为整个领域的真实活跃度正在上升。 该报告还引入了一个“开发者活力仪表板”，以跟踪创始人正在构建的领域，揭示了对 Solana、Base 和比特币生态系统的兴趣。以太坊仍然占据了大部分开发者的注意力。该报告还研究了在宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州等摇摆州对加密货币日益增长的兴趣，这可能会影响即将到来的美国大选。比特币和以太坊交易所交易产品 (ETP) 的批准标志着重要的一步，使加密货币作为一种资产类别合法化。 稳定币被强调为一项关键的加密货币应用，最初用于交易所之间的结算以及 DeFi 协议的抵押品。随着基础设施的改进，稳定币现在正被重新考虑用于支付，因为交易成本较低，这与 2022 年相比是一个重大变化。例子包括 Stripe 的“使用加密货币支付”功能和 Coinbase 的“用咖啡支付”日。报告强调 NFT 仍然存在，但正在朝着低成本的社交收藏体验发展。报告显示，NFT 市场已经从高度投机的交易演变为低成本的社交收藏体验。 最后，该报告触及了 AI 和加密货币的交叉点，观察到 AI 工具和加密货币网站的用户有很强的重叠。其他新兴应用包括去中心化物理基础设施网络 (D-pin)，以及去中心化社交网络，如 Farcaster，以及预测市场。

This is a summary of the A16Z crypto team's "State of Crypto Report 2024," discussing crypto adoption, infrastructure, applications, and its relationship to the national conversation. The discussion is led by Robert Hackett with Darren Motsuoka and Eddie Lazarin. The report aims to offer a holistic view of the crypto industry, analyzing data, trends, and expert opinions. It's positioned as a means to pause amidst the constant stream of information in the social media age and evaluate cumulative progress. The report seeks to mainstream complex crypto concepts through charts, simple explanations, and avoids overly technical jargon. The core of the report focuses on sizing the market, addressing the fundamental question of its scale. Active addresses across blockchains have reached an all-time high of 220 million, with mobile wallet users also at a peak of 27 million. However, active addresses can be a misleading metric due to pseudonymity and the ease of creating multiple addresses (Sybil). The report details how, in a space where financial incentives like airdrops exist, there is a significant incentive to game the system by creating a massive quantity of addresses to maximize rewards. These rewards are most easily extracted from lower-cost blockchains. To address this problem, the report seeks to filter out bots and Sybils using on-chain analytics and forensics. One method is to filter out addresses that have a near-zero balance at both the beginning and end of a period. This criterion implies a transient nature associated with bots, while real users usually retain a balance for future fees. Another analysis that they do involves the frequency of transactions, to determine if the address is a low quality user, bot, or Sybil. At best, they are low quality and, at worst, they are bots. By evaluating the ceiling of the number of potential users, A16Z turns to estimating the floor by looking at off-chain data, particularly wallet users. MetaMask, a popular wallet, reported 30 million monthly active users in February, and approximately 30% transact, yielding 10-15 million transacting users. By estimating MetaMask's market share, the report extrapolates the total number of crypto users. Based on their analysis, they estimate that there are 30 to 60 million real monthly transacting crypto users today, a relatively small percentage (14-27%) of active addresses and only 5-10% of total crypto owners, illustrating the potential to convert existing owners into active users. Specific blockchains like Solana and Base, along with Bitcoin, are noted for their activity. The report suggests cheaper transactions are a huge driver. Bitcoin's relative inactivity in bot-based ecosystems, along with the increase in products/applications in that ecosystem, gives the team confidence that the real activity across the space is rising. The report also introduces a "builder energy dashboard" to track where founders are building, revealing interest in Solana, Base, and Bitcoin ecosystems. Ethereum still captures the majority of builder mindshare. The report also studies the increased interest in crypto in swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, potentially impacting the upcoming US election. The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) marks a significant step, legitimizing crypto as an asset class. Stablecoins are highlighted as a key crypto application, initially used for settlement between exchanges and collateral for DeFi protocols. With infrastructure improvements, stablecoins are now being reconsidered for payments due to lower transaction costs, which is a substantial change from 2022. Examples include Stripe's Pay with Crypto feature and Coinbase's "pay with coffee" day. The report highlights NFTs as still alive but evolving towards low-cost social collecting experiences. The report shows that the NFT market has evolved from highly speculative transactions to low cost, social collecting experiences. Finally, the report touches upon the intersection of AI and crypto, observing that users of AI tools and crypto websites have strong overlap. Other emerging applications include decentralized physical infrastructure networks (D-pin), and decentralized social networks, like Farcaster, and prediction markets.