The chapter delves into the stock market fluctuations of May 1962, drawing parallels and contrasts to the infamous 1929 crash. It begins by highlighting the inherent volatility of the stock market, a characteristic famously captured by J.P. Morgan's dry remark that "it will fluctuate." The narrative then explores the sociological and behavioral patterns that have emerged since the establishment of the first stock exchange in Amsterdam in 1611, noting their surprising persistence despite technological advancements.
The chapter focuses on the dramatic events of May 28-31, 1962, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a significant drop followed by a remarkable recovery. On May 28th, the market suffered its second-largest single-day point decline, triggering a wave of anxiety. The next day, it rebounded with an impressive gain, accompanied by record-breaking trading volume. The crisis concluded on May 31st, with the market regaining its pre-crisis level.
The chapter analyzes the explanations and comparisons that followed these events. It was inevitable to draw parallels with the 1929 crash, fueled by similar price movements and trading volumes. However, the author emphasizes the crucial differences between the two periods, particularly the implementation of regulations and credit limitations that mitigated the potential for catastrophic losses.
The chapter also recounts the mood and reactions during the market turmoil. The Dow Jones News Service reflected the growing apprehension, while brokerage firms faced an overwhelming surge in sell orders. The author vividly describes the scenes in brokerage offices, where "walk-ins" flooded in to witness the unfolding drama. Radio and television broadcasts heightened public concern, further complicating the execution of trades due to tape delays and communication breakdowns.
As the market plummeted, brokers struggled to maintain order and advise their customers. Margin calls flooded in, demanding additional collateral from borrowers. The author highlights the potential danger posed by mutual funds, which had grown significantly since 1929. The fear was that mass redemptions of fund shares could trigger a cascading effect, leading to a devastating market collapse.
The chapter provides a detailed account of the market's turnaround on Tuesday, May 29th. The key moment occurred when American Telephone and Telegraph, a bellwether stock, reversed its downward trend, sparking a widespread rally. The actions of George M. L. Le Branch, Jr., the floor specialist in telephone, and John J. Cranley, who placed a large order for telephone shares, played crucial roles in this dramatic shift.
The chapter contrasts this event with Richard Whitney's attempt to halt the 1929 crash, emphasizing that the 1962 recovery was more genuine and less orchestrated. Plumlee's speech at the National Press Club became part of the narrative, due to its fortuitous timing and the fact that it was an attack on President Kennedy's handling of the economy at the time. The chapter also touches upon the problems that brokerages had untangling the mess of customer orders that occurred during the period.
The author concludes by examining the explanations and analyses that emerged after the crisis. The New York Stock Exchange conducted a thorough investigation, revealing that individual investors, particularly those with higher incomes, were the most active sellers, while mutual funds acted as a stabilizing force by purchasing shares during the downturn and selling them during the recovery. Ultimately, the chapter suggests that the 1962 crisis was a complex event with no single cause. It serves as a reminder of the inherent volatility of the stock market and the potential for similar events to occur in the future, despite safeguards. It also highlighted the idea that people are, by their very nature, greedy, and that at some point another crash is inevitable.