New Elon Interview - Fall Asleep w/ FSD / Tesla's Unbelievable Pricing / Never Seen This Before ⚡️
发布时间 2026-02-26 23:39:15 来源
以下是视频转录中所有新闻内容的摘要：
**1. AM Batteries（干电极技术）：**
* **背景：** 特斯拉于2019年以2.18亿美元收购了麦克斯韦科技公司，以获取其干电极技术（DBE）。麦克斯韦创始人弗朗茨·芬克（Franz Fink）和首席技术官（干电极技术的部分发明人）休·端（Hugh Duong）后来离开了特斯拉。
* **新创业公司：** 芬克和端创立了一家名为AM Batteries的新电池创业公司。
* **新方法：** AM Batteries正在开发一种新的干电极方法，他们声称该方法比特斯拉收购的麦克斯韦方法更容易操作且成本更低。
* **问题/解决方案：** 麦克斯韦的DBE工艺存在干粉结块问题；AM Batteries专注于将粉末喷涂到金属薄膜上以实现均匀涂层。
* **当前挑战：** AM目前的生产线速度（每分钟20米）过慢，无法实现商业化应用（商业化速度为50米/分钟，中国湿法工艺可达70-80米/分钟）。
* **未来潜力：** 芬克表示愿意授权或出售AM Batteries。如果AM能达到商业化速度（约50米/分钟），特斯拉可能会感兴趣，因为埃隆·马斯克曾深度参与麦克斯韦的收购案。
* **意义：** 许多专家认为干电极是大幅降低电池成本的关键技术，对电动汽车的普及以及特斯拉的Cybercab、Semi和Cybertruck至关重要。
**2. Bedrock Robotics（自动驾驶挖掘）：**
* **问题：** 熟练设备操作员短缺，尤其是挖掘机操作员。
* **解决方案：** 由前Waymo资深人士创立的Bedrock Robotics公司，正在为挖掘机配备无人驾驶技术。
* **部署：** 奥斯汀的Champion Site Prep公司已在使用原型机，商业化产品预计将于今年晚些时候推出。该公司首席执行官预计在六个月内，将在一个数据中心场地使用五台自动驾驶挖掘机。
* **技术：** 通过360度摄像头、激光雷达和蜂窝网络连接改造现有挖掘机。
* **背景：** 在固定场地搬运泥土被认为比在道路上实现完全自动驾驶（FSD）要容易得多。这将影响电动汽车供应链，包括特斯拉目前在奥斯汀的基础建设工作。
**3. 德州超级工厂北园区扩建：**
* **许可消息：** 一项新许可证暗示德州超级工厂将进行大规模扩建，被称为“北园区”。
* **未来计划：** 预计将容纳一个更大的擎天柱（Optimus）生产设施，目标是年产1000万台擎天柱，并可能设立一个用于培训和互动的“擎天柱学院”。
* **时间表：** 预计在2027年末甚至2028年才能投入运营。这表明特斯拉在规模化方面“雄心勃勃”。
**4. 锂市场与电网需求：**
* **锂价波动：** 锂价从2022年末的每公斤80美元跌至去年的8美元，目前回升至每公斤19美元（今年上涨20%）。
* **需求驱动因素：** 对电网电池和AI数据中心需求的增加正在推动价格回升；每公斤19美元对大多数矿山来说是有利可图的。
* **美国战略储备：** 特朗普政府拨款100亿美元建立新的战略关键矿产储备，包括锂和稀土。
* **全球努力：** 特朗普还寻求日本、墨西哥和欧盟的合作，以增加中国以外的关键金属产量。
* **电力成为“新黄金”：** Lithium Americas首席执行官和英伟达的黄仁勋都强调电力是新的关键资源，后者表示电力正在阻碍计算能力的发展。
* **固定储能增长：** 固定储能电池出货量增长三倍（从2023年的185 GWh增至去年的620 GWh），主要归因于数据中心。
* **特斯拉精炼厂的影响：** 锂价上涨使得特斯拉精炼厂的产出更有价值，其长期的锂辉石供应协议有助于平滑价格波动，并减少其4680电池生产对现货市场价格的依赖。
**5. 虚拟电厂（VPPs）与电池储能的重要性：**
* **州级倡议：** 新泽西州和伊利诺伊州州长已签署命令，要求公用事业公司利用虚拟电厂（VPPs），支付费用给客户，以便从他们的电池中获取能源供给电网。
* **日益增长的需求：** 能源需求（尤其来自AI数据中心）的快速增长超过了新产能建设，使得电池储能对于电网效率和弹性至关重要。
* **行业共识：** 电池（如特斯拉的Mega Block和Powerwall）正成为满足峰值需求的主要解决方案。一家电池分析公司的首席执行官表示，电池现在是“电网弹性的核心支柱”。
**6. 关税、国内生产与LG的作用：**
* **关税上调：** 对中国电池和储能产品的关税从38%上调至55%，提升了国内生产的价值。
* **国内供应链：** 《通胀削减法案》（IRA）和新关税正在推动更多的国内供应。电动汽车普及速度放缓释放了电池产能，这些产能正被改造用于储能。
* **客户偏好：** 由于确定性和避免未来关税变化，客户愿意为国内生产的电池储能支付更高价格。
* **LG-特斯拉合作：** LG将在其密歇根工厂（原通用汽车合资企业，现完全归LG所有）为特斯拉生产磷酸铁锂（LFP）储能电池。这个年产50 GWh的工厂是电动汽车电池生产线转产储能的例子，巩固了特斯拉在北美的供应基地。
* **时间表：** LG为特斯拉生产的磷酸铁锂电池预计将于明年下半年开始大规模生产。这些电池很可能在两者都增产后，被用于新的Mega Block产品。
**7. 特斯拉Mega Block部署与影响：**
* **首个项目：** Niohwin宣布在南澳大利亚建设一个866兆瓦的Goiter North电池储能项目，这将是首个采用特斯拉新型Mega Block技术的项目。
* **Mega Block特点：** 将四个MegaPack 3单元组合成一个预先设计的模块，提供20兆瓦的容量，安装速度提高23%，施工成本降低高达40%。
* **盈利能力：** 主持人强调Mega Block是弥补特斯拉利润差距的核心技术，其总目标市场在AI数据中心和电网需求的推动下“几乎无限”。
* **技术优势：** FlexGen的首席技术官强调，电池是*唯一*能够以“亚周期速度”响应的技术，以吸收来自AI训练集群的快速功率波动（每秒多次50-100%的负载），从而保护电网和数据中心的发电机。
**8. 埃隆·马斯克关于柏林超级工厂和FSD的采访：**
* **受监督FSD批准（荷兰）：** 特斯拉预计将于3月20日在荷兰获得受监督FSD的批准。埃隆认为欧洲人将会“大吃一惊”。
* **FSD技术（未来）：** 埃隆表示，从技术上讲，用户今年将能够边睡觉边到达目的地，法规需要迎头赶上。
* **柏林超级工厂生产扩张：** 如果成功，柏林超级工厂最终将生产Cybercab和擎天柱。特斯拉Semi卡车也预计明年在欧洲首次亮相。
* **4680电池生产：** 柏林超级工厂已开始生产4680电池，并将继续提高产量。
* **对传统汽车制造商的批评：** 埃隆认为，传统汽车制造商放弃电动汽车是犯了“战略性错误”，并预测他们将成为“恐龙”。他不担心他们窃取特斯拉的技术，因为“特斯拉甚至无法将一个好主意强塞给他们”。
* **柏林超级工厂的长期愿景：** 特斯拉计划在FSD获批后扩大Model Y的生产，其愿景是将柏林超级工厂打造成欧洲最大的综合性工厂，整合4680电池生产（锂精炼、正极材料）、Cybercab、擎天柱和Semi的制造。
**9. Cybertruck双电机全轮驱动等待时间：**
* **大幅延迟：** 最经济的双电机全轮驱动Cybertruck新订单目前面临长达2027年4月的等待期，比之前的6月估计跳涨了14个月。
* **解读：** 这表明需求远高于特斯拉的预期，尽管主持人也暗示除了需求之外“还有其他原因”，可能与生产扩张问题有关（产量一直徘徊在每季度约5000辆）。
**10. 电动汽车充电桩密度与EVGo扩张：**
* **全球比较：** 荷兰拥有最高的电动汽车充电桩密度（每5辆电动汽车对应一个公共充电桩，其中3%是功率大于22kW的快充桩）。美国最差（每31辆电动汽车对应一个充电桩），尽管大多数车主在家充电。中国（最大的电动汽车市场）每9辆电动汽车对应一个充电桩。
* **EVGo里程碑：** EVGo在美国的直流快充端口数量已突破5000个，成为继特斯拉和Electrify America之后第三家达到此规模的公司。他们在14个月内新增了1000多个端口（增长26%）。
* **NACS采纳：** 目前，EVGo的5000多个端口中只有98个是NACS（大部分是CCS）。他们计划今年将NACS充电桩数量扩大到500个以上。
* **未来增长：** EVGo目标是到2029年底将其网络扩大三倍，达到15000个充电桩，每年新增约2500个充电桩。
**11. 自动驾驶（英国与Waymo/Uber/Lyft）：**
* **英国法规：** 英国政府计划在今年下半年修改法规，以允许无人驾驶出租车运营。
* **公司计划：** Waymo希望在9月前在伦敦运营，Uber和Lyft也准备推出服务。关于英国计划的文章中没有提及特斯拉。
* **特斯拉在英国的状况：** 英国不属于荷兰车辆管理局（RDW）对特斯拉FSD的豁免流程，这意味着需要单独的审批流程，尽管RDW的批准将是一个“重大的积极信号”。
**12. 克里斯（Dirty Tesla）在奥斯汀的机器人出租车体验：**
* **最初的挫折：** 第一天，克里斯发现很难叫到机器人出租车，而且所有行程都有监督员。
* **后来的成功：** 第二天，他成功叫到了一辆无监督员的行程，并进行了多次乘车。
* **定价优势：** 特斯拉的机器人出租车定价“极其便宜”：0.5英里、5分钟的行程收费1.49美元；6.4英里、32分钟的无监督行程收费7.40美元。
* **与Waymo的比较：** 他发现Waymo的价格比特斯拉贵四倍多，举例称相同路线的Waymo行程收费21美元，而特斯拉机器人出租车仅收费4.57美元。
* **主持人预测：** 一旦实现规模化和提高可用性，特斯拉将“摧毁Waymo和Uber的市场份额”，因为Waymo以目前的价格无法盈利。
**13. CyberCab制造更新：**
* **“开箱式”制造：** 乔·特米尔（Joe Tetmire）证实，“开箱式”制造流程正在进行中，涉及五个主要部件（车头、车尾、结构性电池组、内饰和两侧车身）由机器人并行构建。
* **无控制装置：** 量产型CyberCab将没有方向盘或踏板（只有测试版本才有）。
* **车轮设计：** CyberCab前后车轮将不同：后轮为更大、更轻的合金轮毂（用于泪滴形车身较窄的后端），前轮为更便宜的钢制轮毂，两者都覆盖塑料空气动力学罩。
* **时间表：** 一切似乎都按计划在4月生产，奥斯汀的无监督机器人出租车部署最早可能在4月或5月。
**14. FSD安全与能力演示：**
* **主动避让：** 索耶（Sawyer）的视频片段显示FSD主动避开潜在碰撞，减速并驶入右车道，而人类驾驶员则向左转向。
* **“有感知行为”：** 皮特（Pete）的视频片段显示FSD安全地靠边停车让跟车过近的车辆通过，然后重新汇入车流，主持人将其描述为“有感知行为”。
**15. 国际FSD测试与公众认知：**
* **瑞典：** 特斯拉已申请在瑞典延雪平进行受监督的FSD测试，并对该地区目前的测试结果感到满意。
* **阿布扎比：** 阿布扎比交通部门正在监督特斯拉受监督的FSD道路测试，以评估其性能、安全性并收集数据，为未来扩张做准备。
* **公众认知：** 视频片段展示了公众对FSD能力的惊叹，质疑为何所有新车都不是特斯拉，并表示体验后他们将“再也不会开车了”。
**16. 加拿大租赁购买选项：**
* 特斯拉已调整了加拿大租赁购买选项的措辞。客户现在被要求查看他们的租赁协议以确定资格，如果未列出购买选项，则在租赁期结束前联系特斯拉，这表明与之前严格的限制相比，灵活性有所提高。
**17. 柏林超级工厂劳资纠纷解决：**
* 特斯拉和IG Metall已同意搁置关于劳工会议的争议，直到下周三工厂劳资委员会选举，以便集中精力解决问题。
**18. 特斯拉Powerwall在澳大利亚的分销：**
* Supply Partners Group获得了一项分销协议，将在澳大利亚供应特斯拉Powerwall及其配件，预计库存将于2月底前运抵仓库。这标志着“安装商的一个重要里程碑”。
**19. 特斯拉股票表现：**
* 收盘价为408.56美元，下跌2.12%，纳斯达克指数（NDX）下跌1.29%。
* 成交量低于平均水平10%，日均成交量约为5900万股，低于几个月前的9000万至1亿股，这表明市场对特斯拉股票处于“观望期”。
Here's a summary of all the news items from the video transcription:
**1. AM Batteries (Dry Electrode Technology):**
* **Background:** Tesla acquired Maxwell Technologies in 2019 for $218 million for its dry electrode technology (DBE). Franz Fink (Maxwell founder) and Hugh Duong (CTO, partial inventor of dry tech) later left Tesla.
* **New Startup:** Fink and Duong have founded a new battery startup called AM Batteries.
* **New Approach:** AM Batteries is developing a new dry electrode approach that they claim is easier to handle and cheaper than the Maxwell method Tesla acquired.
* **Problem/Solution:** Maxwell's DBE process had issues with dry powder clumping; AM Batteries is focused on spraying powder onto metal film for uniform coating.
* **Current Challenge:** AM's production lines are currently too slow (20 meters per minute) for commercial use (50 m/min is commercial, Chinese wet process hits 70-80 m/min).
* **Future Potential:** Fink is open to licensing or selling AM Batteries. Tesla might be interested if AM can reach commercial speeds (around 50 m/min), as Elon Musk was deeply involved in the Maxwell acquisition.
* **Significance:** Dry electrodes are considered by many experts as a key technology to sharply cut battery costs, crucial for EV adoption and Tesla's Cybercab, Semi, and Cybertruck.
**2. Bedrock Robotics (Autonomous Excavation):**
* **Problem:** Shortage of skilled equipment operators, particularly for excavators.
* **Solution:** Bedrock Robotics, founded by former Waymo veterans, is equipping excavators with driverless technology.
* **Deployment:** Champion Site Prep in Austin is already using prototypes, with commercial units expected later this year. The CEO envisions using five autonomous excavators on a single data center site within six months.
* **Technology:** Converts existing excavators with 360-degree cameras, LiDAR, and cellular connection.
* **Context:** Moving dirt in a fixed setting is considered much easier than full self-driving (FSD) on roads. This impacts the EV supply chain, including Tesla's current groundwork in Austin.
**3. Giga Texas North Campus Expansion:**
* **Permit News:** A new permit hints at a massive expansion at Giga Texas, referred to as the "North Campus."
* **Future Plans:** Expected to house a larger Optimus production facility, aiming for 10 million Optimus units per year, and potentially an "Optimus Academy" for training and interaction.
* **Timeline:** Not expected to be operational until late 2027, likely into 2028. This signals Tesla's "huge ambitions when it comes to scale."
**4. Lithium Market & Energy Grid Demand:**
* **Lithium Price Volatility:** Lithium prices swung from $80/kilo (late 2022) to $8 (last year), now staging a comeback at $19/kilo (up 20% this year).
* **Demand Drivers:** Increased demand for grid batteries and AI data centers are driving the price recovery; $19/kilo is profitable for most mines.
* **US Strategic Reserve:** Trump's administration allocated $10 billion to a new strategic critical minerals reserve, including lithium and rare earths.
* **Global Efforts:** Trump also seeks cooperation from Japan, Mexico, and the EU to increase critical metal production outside China.
* **Electricity as "New Gold":** The CEO of Lithium Americas and Nvidia's Jensen Huang both highlight electricity as the new critical resource, with the latter stating it's holding back computing.
* **Stationary Storage Growth:** A threefold rise in stationary storage battery shipments (185 GWh in 2023 to 620 GWh last year), largely due to data centers.
* **Tesla's Refinery Impact:** Higher lithium prices make Tesla's refinery output more valuable, and its long-term Spodumene supply deals help smooth out price swings and reduce reliance on spot market prices for its 4680 production.
**5. Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) & Battery Storage Importance:**
* **State Initiatives:** New Jersey and Illinois governors have signed orders for utilities to tap into VPPs, paying customers to draw energy from their batteries for the grid.
* **Growing Need:** Rapidly increasing energy demand (especially from AI data centers) outpaces new capacity construction, making battery storage essential for grid efficiency and resilience.
* **Industry Consensus:** Batteries (like Tesla's Mega Block and Powerwall) are becoming the primary solution for meeting peak demand. The CEO of a battery analytics company states batteries are now a "central pillar of grid resiliency."
**6. Tariffs, Domestic Production & LG's Role:**
* **Increased Tariffs:** Tariffs on Chinese batteries and storage increased from 38% to 55%, boosting the value of domestic production.
* **Domestic Supply Chain:** The IRA and new tariffs are driving more domestic supply. Slower EV uptake is freeing up battery cell capacity, which is being retooled for energy storage.
* **Customer Preference:** Customers are willing to pay more for domestically produced battery storage due to certainty and to avoid future tariff changes.
* **LG-Tesla Partnership:** LG will manufacture LFP energy storage batteries for Tesla at its Michigan plant (formerly a GM joint venture, now fully LG). This 50 GWh/year facility is an example of EV battery lines converting to storage, bolstering Tesla's North American supply base.
* **Timeline:** Mass production of LG's LFP batteries for Tesla is expected in the second half of next year. These batteries are likely destined for the new Mega Block once both ramp up.
**7. Tesla Mega Block Deployment & Impact:**
* **First Project:** Niohwin has announced the construction of an 866 MW Goiter North battery site in South Australia, which will be the first project to feature Tesla's new Mega Block technology.
* **Mega Block Features:** Combines four MegaPack 3 units into a single pre-engineered block, delivering 20 MW of capacity, with 23% faster installation and up to 40% lower construction costs.
* **Profitability:** The host highlights Mega Block as core technology bridging Tesla's profit gap, with an "almost unlimited" total addressable market driven by AI data centers and grid demands.
* **Technical Advantage:** The CTO of FlexGen emphasizes that batteries are the *only* technology capable of reacting at "sub-cycle speed" to absorb rapid power swings (50-100% of load several times per second) from AI training clusters, protecting both the grid and data center generators.
**8. Elon Musk Interview on Giga Berlin & FSD:**
* **Supervised FSD Approval (Netherlands):** Tesla expects approval in the Netherlands for supervised FSD on March 20th. Elon believes Europeans will be "blown away."
* **Technical FSD (Future):** Elon suggests that technically, users will be able to fall asleep and wake up at their destination this year, with regulations needing to catch up.
* **Giga Berlin Production Expansion:** If successful, Giga Berlin will eventually manufacture Cybercab and Optimus. The Tesla Semi is also expected to debut in Europe next year.
* **4680 Cell Production:** Giga Berlin has started making 4680 battery cells and will continue ramping production.
* **Legacy Auto Critique:** Elon believes legacy automakers are making a "strategic mistake" by pulling away from EVs, predicting they will become "dinosaurs." He's not worried about them stealing Tesla's tech as "Tesla can't even cram a great idea down their throats."
* **Long-Term Giga Berlin Vision:** Tesla plans to expand Model Y production post-FSD approval, with a vision for Giga Berlin to become Europe's largest factory complex, integrating 4680 cell production (lithium refining, cathodes), Cybercab, Optimus, and Semi manufacturing.
**9. Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD Wait Times:**
* **Massive Delay:** New orders for the most affordable dual motor all-wheel-drive Cybertruck trim now face a waiting period until April 2027, a 14-month jump from the previous June estimate.
* **Interpretation:** This indicates demand is much higher than Tesla anticipated, though the host also suggests "something is going on" beyond just demand, potentially related to production scaling issues (production has hovered around 5,000 units per quarter).
**10. EV Charger Density & EVGo Expansion:**
* **Global Comparison:** The Netherlands has the highest EV charger density (5 EVs per public charger, 3% fast chargers >22kW). The US has the worst (31 EVs per charger), though most charge at home. China (biggest EV market) has 9 EVs per charger.
* **EVGo Milestone:** EVGo has crossed 5,000 DC fast charging ports in the US, becoming the third company to do so after Tesla and Electrify America. They added over 1,000 ports in 14 months (26% increase).
* **NACS Adoption:** Currently, only 98 of EVGo's 5,000+ ports are NACS (mostly CCS). They plan to expand their NACS footprint to over 500 stalls this year.
* **Future Growth:** EVGo aims to triple its network to 15,000 stalls by the end of 2029, adding about 2,500 new stalls annually.
**11. Autonomous Driving (UK & Waymo/Uber/Lyft):**
* **UK Regulations:** The UK government plans to change regulations in the second half of this year to enable driverless taxis.
* **Company Plans:** Waymo hopes to operate in London by September, with Uber and Lyft also ready to launch. Tesla was not mentioned in the article about the UK's plans.
* **Tesla's UK Status:** The UK does not fall under the RDW (Dutch vehicle authorities) exemption process for Tesla's FSD, suggesting a separate approval process would be needed, though RDW approval would be a "major positive signal."
**12. Chris (Dirty Tesla) Robotaxi Experience in Austin:**
* **Initial Frustration:** On his first day, Chris found it difficult to get a robotaxi, and all rides were supervised.
* **Later Success:** The following day, he got an unsupervised ride and took multiple trips.
* **Pricing Advantage:** Tesla's robotaxi pricing was "insanely cheap": $1.49 for a 0.5-mile, 5-minute ride; $7.40 for a 6.4-mile, 32-minute unsupervised ride.
* **Comparison to Waymo:** He found Waymo to be over four times more expensive, citing a $21 Waymo trip for the same route as a $4.57 Tesla robotaxi ride.
* **Host's Prediction:** Tesla will "destroy Waymo and Uber's market share" once scale and improved availability are achieved, as Waymo cannot profit at its current pricing.
**13. CyberCab Manufacturing Update:**
* **Unboxed Manufacturing:** Joe Tetmire confirmed the "unboxed manufacturing" process is underway, involving five main parts (front, rear, structural battery pack, interior, two sides) constructed in parallel by robots.
* **No Controls:** Production CyberCabs will have no steering wheel or pedals (only testing versions do).
* **Wheel Design:** The CyberCab will have different wheels front-to-back: larger, lighter alloy rear wheels (for the narrower rear of the teardrop shape) and cheaper steel front wheels, both covered by plastic aero covers.
* **Timeline:** Everything appears on track for April production, with potential for unsupervised Robotaxi deployment in Austin as early as April or May.
**14. FSD Safety & Capability Demonstrations:**
* **Proactive Avoidance:** A clip from Sawyer showed FSD proactively avoiding a potential collision, slowing down and moving into the right lane while a human driver swerved left.
* **"Sentient Behavior":** A clip from Pete showed FSD safely pulling over to the side of the road to let a tailgater pass, then rejoining traffic, which the host described as "sentient behavior."
**15. International FSD Testing & Public Awareness:**
* **Sweden:** Tesla has applied to conduct supervised FSD testing in Jönköping, Sweden, and is satisfied with tests in the region so far.
* **Abu Dhabi:** The Abu Dhabi Mobility department is overseeing Tesla's supervised FSD road trials to assess performance, safety, and collect data for future expansion.
* **Public Perception:** Clips featured general public expressing amazement at FSD's capabilities, questioning why all new cars aren't Teslas, and declaring they would "never drive again" after experiencing it.
**16. Canada Lease Buyout Options:**
* Tesla has adjusted wording regarding lease purchase options in Canada. Customers are now directed to review their lease agreements for eligibility and contact Tesla near the lease end if no purchase option is listed, suggesting more flexibility compared to previous heavy limitations.
**17. Giga Berlin Labor Dispute Resolution:**
* Tesla and IG Metall have agreed to set aside their dispute over a labor meeting until the plant's works council election next Wednesday, allowing focus on the issues.
**18. Tesla Powerwall Distribution in Australia:**
* Supply Partners Group secured a distribution agreement to supply Tesla Powerwalls and accessories in Australia, with inventory expected in warehouses by late February. This marks a "major milestone for installers."
**19. Tesla Stock Performance:**
* Closed at $408.56, down 2.12%, with the NDX down 1.29%.
* Volume was 10% below average, with daily volume averaging around 59 million shares, down from 90-100 million a few months ago, suggesting a "holding period" for the market regarding Tesla stock.
摘要
Ad: Remove your personal information from the web at https://JoinDeleteMe.com/Electrified and use code Electrified for 20% off ...
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Lumis, quick shout out to my newest Patreon Morteness. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. If you've been around for a while, you will remember back in 2019, Tesla paid $218 million for a small battery startup Maxwell Technologies. You may not remember though that Franz Fink was the founder who sold Maxwell to Elon and Tesla. And something to watch he now has a new battery startup called AM batteries. And at this new battery startup AM batteries, the CTO is Hugh Duong who worked for Fink back at Maxwell and was partially responsible for inventing that dry technology that Tesla bought.
欢迎来到《Electrified》。我是你的主持人，Dylan Lumis，特别感谢我最新的Patreon支持者Morteness。感谢你选择支持这个频道。如果你关注了一段时间，可能还记得在2019年，特斯拉以2.18亿美元收购了一家名为Maxwell Technologies的小型电池初创公司。不过，你可能不记得的是，Maxwell的创始人Franz Fink是将公司出售给Elon和特斯拉的人。值得关注的是，他现在又创办了一家新的电池初创公司，名为AM Batteries。在这家新的电池初创公司AM Batteries，有一位首席技术官Hugh Duong，他曾在Maxwell为Fink工作，并且部分负责发明了特斯拉购买的那项干电极技术。
Both of these men worked at Tesla as part of that Maxwell acquisition. But in 2023 Duong moved to AM, the new startup where he's now working on a new approach to dry electrodes that the company says is far easier to handle and cheaper than the method Maxwell brought to Tesla. Now yes, we can be confident Tesla has made significant changes to that process over the last six plus years working on that technology. And I've said a lot in the past, but if you don't want to take it for me, numerous industry experts think dry electrodes are one of the few new technologies that could sharply cut battery costs in a single stroke. And we know that battery prices are the single biggest cost of an electric vehicle.
这两个人都是通过收购Maxwell进入特斯拉工作的。但在2023年，Duong转到了一个新的初创公司AM，现在他在那里致力于一种对干电极的新方法。这个公司声称，他们的方法比Maxwell带入特斯拉的方法更容易处理且成本更低。我们可以肯定，特斯拉在过去六年多的时间里对这一技术做出了显著的改进。过去我说过很多次，如果不相信我，许多行业专家也认为，干电极是少数几种能够立即大幅降低电池成本的新技术之一。而我们知道，电池价格是电动汽车成本中最大的一项。
So driving down those numbers will be crucial for EV adoption. Part of the problem Tesla had with its DBE process was using that dry powder it would lead to clumping up. But AM batteries may have a different solution. They're focused on spraying the powder onto the metal film making for a uniformly coated electrode. But the approach is still too slow for commercial use. AM's lines pump out electrode coated film at just 20 meters per minute, which is less than half of the 50 meters per minute regarded as commercial speed. And much slower than the 70 to 80 meters per minute Chinese companies have reached using the traditional wet process.
要降低这些数字对于电动车的普及将至关重要。特斯拉的DBE工艺问题部分在于使用干粉时容易结块。然而，AM电池可能有不同的解决方案。他们专注于将粉末喷涂到金属薄膜上，以形成均匀涂覆的电极。但是，这种方法的速度仍然太慢，无法商业化使用。AM公司的生产线每分钟只能生产出20米长的电极涂覆薄膜，这还不到被认为是商业速度的50米的一半。而且，这个速度远低于中国公司使用传统湿法工艺达到的每分钟70到80米。
And of course that meters per minute metric just measures the speed of the line and how fast the materials are actually being coated. So I'm not sure Tesla would answer the question, but for all of you Tesla analysts, why not ask a question like this, where is Tesla at from a meters per minute perspective on its DBE process? And for whatever it's worth, think has said that they want to either license its technology or better yet someone to buy the company outright. And for those that think Elon is not involved in the nitty-gritty of the engineering process, think gave an interview to the information and explained what it was like when Elon met with Maxwell technologies back in the day.
当然，“每分钟米数”这个指标只是用于衡量生产线的速度，以及材料被涂覆的速度。所以，我不确定特斯拉是否会回答这个问题，但对于所有关注特斯拉的分析师来说，为什么不提出这样的问题呢：特斯拉在其DBE工艺中，每分钟米数的表现如何？另外，据说他们希望能够授权其技术，或者更好的是有人能直接收购这家公司。对于那些认为埃隆·马斯克不参与工程细节的人，Think曾在一次采访中解释了埃隆与Maxwell技术公司会面的情形，说明他其实很关注这些细节。
Both Elon and Drew Baglino pelted think and duong on with a torrent of questions, and Elon wanted to touch things he had questions on every single aspect. And about two weeks later the acquisition was announced. All this to say, if and when AM can hit somewhere in that 50 meters per minute neighborhood, aka commercial speed, that would be when a company like Tesla might be interested in either licensing or buying this technology. So AM batteries is a name to keep an eye on and just because Tesla has solved DBE at scale does not mean there will not be new advancements or developments with the DBE process and with those 4680 cells overall.
埃隆和德鲁·巴格利诺向思考和杜昂抛出了一连串的问题，埃隆对每一个方面都很感兴趣，并希望亲自了解细节。大约两周后，收购的消息公布。这个例子表明，如果AM公司能达到每分钟50米左右的速度，也就是商业速度，特斯拉这样的公司可能会有兴趣去授权或购买这项技术。因此，AM电池是一个值得关注的名字。即使特斯拉已经在大规模应用上解决了DBE（干电极）技术的问题，也不意味着DBE工艺和4680电池不会有新的进步或发展。
And in terms of reducing battery pack costs for the cybercab, semi, cyber truck, I can almost guarantee you, Elon and Tesla will be watching AM batteries closely as the executives have already executed one very successful acquisition and exit. And this one will never get the attention that robotaxis do and understandably so. But just note there is currently a shortage of skilled equipment operators and when I say equipment I'm talking about excavators. And on that point there's a company, Bedrock Robotics based in San Francisco started by former Waymo Veterans. That's currently busy equipping these excavators with driverless technology.
在降低Cybercab、Semi、Cybertruck电池组成本方面，我几乎可以保证，埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉会密切关注AM电池。因为这些高管之前已经成功地进行过一次收购和退出。尽管这件事不太会像自动驾驶出租车那样引起注意，而且这是可以理解的。但请注意，目前技能娴熟的设备操作员短缺，而这里所说的设备是指挖掘机。关于这一点，有一家名为Bedrock Robotics的公司，总部位于旧金山，由前Waymo员工创办。目前该公司正在忙于为这些挖掘机配备无人驾驶技术。
And the CEO of Champion Site Prep which is an excavation company based in the Austin suburbs said some of his construction equipment has been operating autonomously using prototypes of Bedrock's tech since late last month. And he hopes to acquire the first commercial units later this year when Bedrock plans to begin selling them. And the CEO said I can envision six months from now on the next data center that I start putting five of these machines, the excavators, out there doing the same thing. It really is ready for play, ready for action this year we believe.
Champion Site Prep公司的首席执行官表示，他们位于奥斯汀郊区的挖掘公司自上个月底以来，已经开始使用Bedrock技术的原型进行自主操作。他希望在今年晚些时候，Bedrock计划开始销售这些设备时，能够购买到第一批商业化产品。首席执行官还表示，预计在六个月后，当他们开始建设下一个数据中心时，计划投入五台这样的挖掘机来执行同样的任务。我们相信这些设备今年已经可以投入使用，并能顺利运行。
So if Bedrock is successful it may be the first at least in the US that would take humans completely out of the picture. And just like Waymo this Bedrock company converts existing excavators with cameras that provide 360 degree field of view as well as LIDAR and a cellular connection. And I think we would all agree moving dirt in a fixed setting is going to be much easier than solving FSD out on the roads. So at a time when we need all input costs for EVs to come down every bit of automation and eventually human removal will help. And we know Tesla is doing groundwork and excavation right now in Austin. So just keep in mind autonomy will impact industries far down the EV supply chain as well.
如果Bedrock公司成功的话，它可能成为美国首个能完全排除人类操作的企业。就像Waymo一样，这个Bedrock公司将现有的挖掘机改装装配上可提供360度视野的摄像头、激光雷达和移动网络连接。大家可能都会同意，在固定环境中挖土要比在道路上解决完全自动驾驶问题简单得多。在我们需要降低电动车生产成本的时刻，每一点自动化和最终的人力移除都将有所帮助。而且我们知道特斯拉目前正在奥斯汀进行土木和挖掘工作。所以请记住，自动化将对电动车供应链中的许多行业产生影响。
And speaking of what Tesla is doing Joe Tetmire shared this video saying Giga Texas is preparing for a massive expansion and a new permit hints at what it will be. So going forward we will call this the North Campus. And this is expected to be the future home of the bigger Optimus production facility where they will be able to make 10 million Optimus per year. And this may also end up being the location for the Optimus Academy where Optimus are trained and ultimately interact with one another. In my opinion we should not expect anything from this site until late 2027 likely into 2028. But very clearly Tesla is not playing games and has huge ambitions when it comes to scale.
说到特斯拉的动向，Joe Tetmire分享了一个视频，指出德州超级工厂正在准备大规模扩建，一项新的许可暗示了扩建内容。未来，我们将把这个地方称为北园区。预计这里将成为更大的Optimus生产设施的未来基地，每年可以生产1000万个Optimus机器人。此外，这里可能还会成为Optimus学院的位置，在那里Optimus机器人能够接受培训并进行互动。依我看，在2027年底之前甚至可能到2028年，我们不应对该地点有所期待。但很明显，特斯拉在扩展规模方面野心勃勃，并没有在开玩笑。
Just so everyone knows there are other personal information removal companies out there but I chose to work with Delete Me the sponsor of this video for a few reasons. They are constantly updating their list of sites they remove your data from. The list is live on their site and approaching when thousand people search data brokers. And they don't just remove your info once they monitor continuously sending quarterly reports. Plus data removal is all they do. They're not a privacy suite like many others with add-ons and bundles. They do one thing and they do it very well. Delete Me is based in the USA and they give you privacy advisors to answer any questions you have and you can submit specific opt-out requests even if a site is not yet on their list for removal. This is their dashboard very easy to use very intuitive.
为了让大家了解情况，市场上有其他个人信息移除公司，但我选择和本视频的赞助商DeleteMe合作有几个原因。他们会不断更新从中移除数据的网站列表。这份列表在他们的网站上是公开的，并且已接近一千个数据经纪商。他们不仅仅是一次性移除你的信息，而是持续监控并每季度发送报告。此外，他们专注于数据移除，不像其他很多公司提供各种附加功能和套餐。他们只做这一件事，而且做得非常好。DeleteMe总部位于美国，他们还提供隐私顾问来解答你的任何问题。即使一个网站还未列入其移除清单，你也可以提交具体的选择退出请求。他们的操作面板非常易于使用，直观明了。
And as you can see over the past few years Delete Me has saved me thousands of hours removing my personal information from hundreds of these people search data brokers. And if you don't think this is a problem I would strongly encourage you to think again. Have a look at the statistics. The data broker industry is exploding and it's only getting worse with AI. So if you'd like to support electrified and more importantly protect your family you can head to join Delete Me.com slash electrified to get 20% off using my code electrified linked below or by using the QR code on the screen.
在过去的几年中，正如你所见，Delete Me 帮助我从数百个个人信息搜索数据经纪网站上移除我的个人信息，省下了数千小时。如果你认为这不是个问题，我强烈建议你重新考虑一下。看看相关统计数据。数据经纪行业正在迅速发展，随着人工智能的进步，情况只会越来越糟糕。所以，如果你想支持 Electrified，更重要的是保护你的家人，你可以访问 join Delete Me.com slash electrified，使用我的代码 electrified 获得 20% 的折扣，链接在下方或者通过屏幕上的二维码进行操作。
I just don't want us to forget about the other initiatives Tesla has underway like the lithium refinery and the cathode factory and the upcoming mega block because it's so easy to get hyper fixated on just Optimus and autonomy. And when it comes to excavation and mining and specifically lithium mining lithium in the West has been on quite the roller coaster ride we had prices of about $80 a kilo in late 2022 and the price of the metal plummeted as low as $8 last year. But now lithium is staging a comeback it's risen 20% this year alone to around $19 a kilo. Thanks largely to the new demand for batteries to power the grid and AI data centers.
我只是希望我们不要忘记特斯拉正在开展的其他项目，比如锂精炼厂、阴极工厂和即将推出的“超级区块”，因为我们很容易只专注于Optimus机器人和自动驾驶技术。关于开采和矿业，尤其是锂矿开采，西方的锂市场经历了一番过山车式的变化。2022年末，锂的价格大约为每公斤80美元，但去年价格骤降至每公斤8美元。不过现在锂正在卷土重来，今年价格已经上涨了20%，达到了每公斤约19美元。这很大程度上要归功于新兴的电网电池和人工智能数据中心的需求。
And most importantly this $19 per kilo is profit territory for most mines. Last week Trump put $10 billion into the mining industry as part of a new strategic critical minerals reserve that will hoard lithium rare earth minerals and dozens of other metals used in the defense tech and energy industries. And so while this administration has not been helpful to electric vehicles up the supply chain it has been. Trump also wants Japan, Mexico and other countries as well as the EU to help increase the production of critical metals outside of China.
最重要的是，每公斤19美元的价格对大多数矿山来说都是有利可图的。上周，特朗普投了100亿美元到矿业，用于建立新的战略关键矿藏储备，该储备将囤积锂、稀土矿物以及在国防科技和能源行业中使用的几十种其他金属。因此，尽管本届政府对电动车行业并不支持，但它确实在供应链上给予了帮助。特朗普还希望日本、墨西哥和其他国家以及欧盟在中国以外增加关键金属的产量。
And where I'm going with this the CEO of lithium America's just said electricity has become like the new gold. And we also have jensen from Nvidia saying it's not computing chips but electricity that's holding us back. And this lithium comeback is being attributed to a three-fold rise in stationary storage battery shipments from 185 gigawatt hours batteries in 2023 to 620 gigawatt hours last year. Again largely driven by these new data centers.
这段话的意思是：美国锂业公司的首席执行官最近表示，电力已经变得像新黄金一样重要。英伟达的詹森也指出，不是计算芯片，而是电力在阻碍我们的发展。锂的回归被归因于固定储能电池出货量的三倍增长，从2023年的185吉瓦时增长到去年的620吉瓦时。这种增长主要是由新数据中心的需求推动的。
So lithium prices being up certainly helps Tesla's lithium refinery as the output is more valuable and Tesla having its own refinery means Tesla's not paying those higher prices to someone else. Now it should be noted that Spodgamine prices have gone up as well so Tesla's lithium refinery input costs are likely higher as well. I say likely though because I'm sure Tesla has long-term supply deals for Spodgamine input meaning Tesla is not paying spot prices. But the massive swings in this industry will be smoothed out by Tesla having long-term Spodgamine supply from mines in Canada and Australia which then gets refined in Corpus Christi into that battery grade lithium.
锂价上涨对特斯拉的锂精炼厂来说无疑是好事，因为产出的价值增加了。此外，特斯拉拥有自己的精炼厂，意味着无需向其他供应商支付高价。不过，需要注意的是，锂辉石的价格也在上涨，因此特斯拉的锂精炼输入成本也可能更高。不过，我认为特斯拉很可能已经签订了锂辉石的长期供应协议，这意味着特斯拉不需要支付现货价格。在这个行业中，价格的大幅波动将通过特斯拉从加拿大和澳大利亚的矿山获得的长期锂辉石供应得到平滑处理，这些锂辉石随后会在科珀斯克里斯蒂被精炼为电池级别的锂。
Which of course is then directly into the 4680 production process. So Tesla needing to buy less lithium from suppliers avoiding these higher prices is just one more benefit of Tesla setting up the refinery. Speaking of Tesla being ahead of the curve, the new governor of New Jersey just signed a flurry of new orders one of which was telling utilities to start tapping virtual power plants. The governor of Illinois recently signed legislation ordering utilities in that state to do the same thing to pay customers to let the power grid draw energy from their batteries.
当然，这直接融入了4680的生产过程中。因此，特斯拉需要从供应商处购买更少的锂，避免了更高的价格，这只是特斯拉建立精炼厂的另一个好处。说到特斯拉的前瞻性，新泽西州的新州长刚刚签署了一系列新命令，其中一项是要求公用事业公司开始利用虚拟电厂。伊利诺伊州的州长最近也签署了相关立法，要求该州的公用事业公司也这样做，向允许电网从其电池中提取能量的客户付款。
And it's what we've been saying these orders reflect a growing reality in the US. Energy demand is growing fast but there's no way for AI data centers and grid operators to build new capacity quickly enough. Which is exactly where battery storage comes in to make the existing grid infrastructure even more efficient. And the industry is now saying batteries of various types like Tesla's new mega block and smaller residential batteries like the Powerwall are becoming the go-to capacity when the grid is struggling to meet demand.
这些订单反映了一个在美国日益增长的现实。能源需求正在迅速增加，但人工智能数据中心和电网运营商无法快速建立新的产能。这正是电池储能发挥作用的地方，它可以让现有电网基础设施变得更加高效。行业现在表示，各种类型的电池，如特斯拉的新型Mega Block和较小的家用电池如Powerwall，正在成为当电网难以满足需求时的首选解决方案。
And the CEO of a battery analytics company just said whereas perhaps even as recently as five years ago batteries might have been thought of as nice to have they now have become a central pillar of grid resiliency so they're more important than ever. And don't forget at the beginning of this year tariffs on Chinese batteries and battery storage went from around 38% up to around 55% which of course makes Tesla's production of its batteries here domestically that much more valuable. The CEO of Ravon Energy just said the combination of the IRA and then all these tariffs and FEOC restrictions have just been another impetus to continue to bring more domestic supply online.
电池分析公司的一位首席执行官表示，甚至就在五年前，人们可能还认为电池是可有可无的东西，但现在它们已经成为电网弹性的重要支柱，因此比以往任何时候都更加重要。而且不要忘记，今年年初对中国电池和电池储能的关税从大约38%上涨到大约55%，这使得特斯拉在本地生产电池变得更加有价值。Ravon Energy的首席执行官表示，《通胀削减法案》、这些关税以及外国经济组织委员会的限制共同成为促使更多本地供应上线的推动力。
The slower uptake of the EVs is freeing up battery cell capacity for battery storage to use. They're now retooling those production lines and creating cells specifically for the energy storage space. And now in another trend that would benefit Tesla we have customers that are willing to pay more for battery storage to avoid the possibility of tariff changes. So the customers are willing to pay a bit more for the certainty that domestic production provides.
由于电动车(EV)市场的增长放缓，一些电池生产的产能被释放出来用于电池储能。生产线正在进行改造，专门为能源储存领域生产电池。同时，还有一个新的趋势对特斯拉有利：为了避免未来可能的关税变动，一些客户愿意花更多钱购买电池储存系统。他们愿意多花一些钱来获得国内生产所带来的保障。
And on this point, we learned that LG will manufacture LFP energy storage batteries for Tesla at its plant in Michigan. And remember this was the site that was previously operated as a joint venture with General Motors. But LG bought GM's stake in May of last year and now fully owns the site. And with a production capacity of 50 gigawatt hours per year, it's one of the company's biggest facilities in North America. And it's a perfect example of some of these EV battery cell production lines being converted to battery storage. LG's converting part of the Lansing factory to produce LFP batteries for energy storage.
在这一点上，我们了解到，LG将在其位于密歇根州的工厂为特斯拉生产磷酸铁锂（LFP）储能电池。要记住，这个地点曾经是与通用汽车合作的一个合资企业，但LG在去年5月买下了通用汽车的股份，现在完全拥有了该厂。这个工厂的生产能力每年为50吉瓦时，是LG在北美最大的生产设施之一。这完美体现了一些电动汽车电池生产线转换为电池储能的例子。LG正在将兰辛工厂的一部分用于生产储能用的LFP电池。
Mass production of those lines is reportedly expected to begin in the second half of next year. Tesla has primarily used CATL's prismatic batteries for its MegaPak. But this move to source prismatic LFP cells from LG in the US plant could be seen as part of Tesla's efforts to bolster its North American supply base for its energy storage business. Which makes perfect sense given everything we just laid out.
据报道，那些生产线的大规模生产预计将在明年下半年开始。特斯拉主要为其MegaPak使用CATL（宁德时代）的方形电池。但是，此次决定从LG的美国工厂采购方形LFP（磷酸铁锂）电池，可以被视为特斯拉在强化其北美供应链以支持其能源存储业务方面的努力。结合我们之前所提到的一切，这样的举措是完全合乎情理的。
And so this new US LFP supply for Tesla may not be ready until next year meaning the early mega block production might not use this supply. I would imagine that next year when production of both the mega block and these LFP cells are finally ramped, that the LG LFP supply will be used in the new mega block. And even though the mega block won't enter production until later this year we already have Niohwin announcing the start of construction of this 866 MW Goiter North battery site which is in South Australia.
因此，特斯拉在美国的新LFP（磷酸铁锂）供应可能要到明年才能准备好，这意味着早期的mega block（大型电池块）生产可能不会使用这批供应。我想象明年当mega block和这些LFP电池的生产都终于提速时，LG的LFP供应会被用于新的mega block。即使mega block要到今年晚些时候才会开始生产，我们已经有Niohwin宣布开始在南澳大利亚建设这个866兆瓦的Goiter North电池站。
Which is expected to be the first project featuring Tesla's new mega block technology. And as a quick refresher the mega block combines four of Tesla's new MegaPak 3 units into a single pre-engineered plug-in-play block delivering 20 MW of capacity. It's optimized for rapid deployment and cost efficiency offering 23% faster installation and up to 40% lower construction costs compared to previous systems. So this is what I mean when I say Tesla investors are distracted. This won't be as flashy as Robotaxi scaling or Optimus demos but this is the core tech that's bridging the gap for Tesla right now from a profit perspective.
据预计，第一个采用特斯拉新型"超级模块"技术的项目将会启动。简单来说，"超级模块"将特斯拉的四个新款MegaPak 3单元组合成一个预先设计的即插即用模块，提供20兆瓦的电力容量。这个设计经过优化，能够快速部署并节省成本，与之前的系统相比，安装速度快了23%，建筑成本降低了多达40%。这就是我所说的，特斯拉的投资者们注意力被分散了。虽然这项技术没有自动出租车扩展或Optimus演示那么引人注目，但它是目前特斯拉在利润方面的核心技术，并且正在弥合差距。
And we know the total addressable market is nearly unlimited. The demand for mega pack and mega block continues to raise higher thanks to these AI data centers and the grid demands and all of the input costs and the raw materials that Tesla has spent years driving down. Vertically integrating are going to be the reason Tesla can offer market leading offerings and continue to be a market leader not just in the battery storage sector but as a cell manufacturer as well.
我们知道，总体可拓展市场几乎是无限的。由于AI数据中心和电网需求的增加，加上特斯拉多年来在降低投入成本和原材料成本方面所做的努力，对Mega Pack和Mega Block的需求持续增长。实现垂直整合将是特斯拉能够提供市场领先产品，并在不仅是电池储能领域而且作为电池制造商继续成为市场领导者的原因。
And to wrap it up the CTO of FlexGen just said in AI training clusters power can swing 50 to 100% of the nameplate load several times per second. That level of ramp rate is challenging for the grids and it's simply outside the operating envelope for most on-site generation assets especially turbines which cannot absorb that without risking damage. And his conclusion batteries are the only technology that can react at sub-cycle speed. Behind the meter batteries absorb these fast transients protect the grid from rapid swings and protect the data centers own generators from operating outside their limits.
总结一下，FlexGen 的首席技术官刚刚表示，在 AI 训练集群中，电力负载可以在几秒内迅速波动，从额定负载的 50% 到 100% 不等。这样的负载变化速度对电网来说是一个挑战，对于大多数现场发电设备，尤其是涡轮机来说，这种变化超出了其正常的运行范围，且可能因无法承受而导致损坏。他的结论是，电池是唯一能在亚秒级速度下反应的技术。电表后的电池可以吸收这些快速的瞬态变化，保护电网免受电力负载迅速波动的影响，并保护数据中心自有发电机不超出运行限制。
Data center developers energy storage tech providers renewable and conventional energy developers and of course the tech companies that will rely on them have begun to recognize this key role of energy storage. Elon gave a new 23 minute interview with Andre Tereg the plant manager of Gigapirlin. Rather than playing clips I'll just tell you what was said because there was music in the background and I'm not sure about copyright. But Elon did say Tesla is now expecting supervised FSD approval in the Netherlands on March 20th that's what the authorities told Tesla.
数据中心开发者、能源存储技术提供商、可再生和传统能源开发者，当然还有那些将依赖它们的科技公司，都开始认识到能源存储的重要作用。埃隆·马斯克接受了一次新的23分钟采访，采访者是Gigapirlin工厂经理安德烈·特雷格。由于采访背景有音乐，我不确定版权问题，所以我将直接告诉你采访内容。埃隆表示，按照当局的通知，特斯拉预计将在3月20日获得荷兰的FSD（完全自动驾驶）监督审批。
So March as expected but now we actually have a date. Elon is quite excited about people in Europe finally getting to experience supervised FSD and he thinks people will be blown away. Elon said that technically this year you will be able to fall asleep and wake up at your destination again from a technical standpoint. So the regulations will have to catch up but Elon thinks the software will be there this year. Elon said if things go well then eventually Tesla will manufacture both the cyber cab and optimists at Gigapirlin.
如预期的那样是三月份，但现在我们终于有了一个确切的日期。埃隆对欧洲的人们终于可以体验到受监管的全自动驾驶(FSD)感到非常兴奋，他认为人们会对此感到震撼。埃隆提到，从技术角度来说，今年你将可以在车里入睡，然后在目的地醒来。当然，法规需要跟上，但埃隆认为软件今年就会就绪。他还表示，如果一切顺利，特斯拉最终将在Gigapirlin制造Cyber Cab和Optimus机器人。
Elon said the Tesla semi should make its debut in Europe also next year. Gigapirlin has begun making 4680 battery cells on site and will continue to ramp that program. Elon made it very clear he thinks that legacy auto is making a strategic mistake pulling away from electric vehicles. He said it really makes no sense and those companies are headed to be dinosaurs. He said Tesla is not worried about those other companies stealing Tesla's technology because Tesla can't even cram a great idea down their throats.
埃隆表示，特斯拉的半挂式卡车应在明年也在欧洲亮相。柏林超级工厂已经开始在现场生产4680电池，并将继续推进这个计划。埃隆明确表示，他认为传统汽车制造商在远离电动汽车的战略上犯了错误。他说，这样做毫无意义，这些公司将变得像恐龙一样落伍。他还提到，特斯拉并不担心其他公司偷走特斯拉的技术，因为即便特斯拉有很好的想法，也很难让这些公司接受。
And then at Gigapirlin Tesla does expect to expand the production of the model Y once FSD is approved and then eventually if the regulations allow it Tesla has plans to make Gigapirlin the biggest factory complex in Europe where they could eventually produce 4680 cells fully integrated refining the lithium making the cathodes and so on. Also making 4680s producing the cyber cab producing optimists and producing the semi.
在Gigapirlin，特斯拉预计在FSD（完全自动驾驶）获得批准后，将扩大Model Y的生产规模。如果法规允许，特斯拉计划将Gigapirlin打造成欧洲最大的工厂综合体，在这里他们最终能够生产4680电池，并完全整合锂的精炼、制造阴极等。此外，他们还计划在此生产4680电池、Cybertruck、Optimus机器人和Semi卡车。
And how about this so the new most affordable cyber truck trim the dual motor all wheel drive. If you scroll down new orders will no longer be fulfilled in June you'll now have to wait until April 2027. So that's a 14 month wait for new orders placed today. So yes clearly demand for this trim at this price point has been much higher than Tesla was expecting.
对于这款新的最实惠的双电机全轮驱动版Cybertruck，如果你继续向下看，新订单不再会在6月交付，你现在得等到2027年4月。这意味着今天下的新订单需要等待14个月。因此，很明显，这款车型在这个价位的需求远超特斯拉的预期。
And now some will say that part of this wait time is due to production scaling limitations and I will grant you that to some degree the cyber truck lines have yet to scale past a certain number per week since deliveries to date have hovered around 5,000 units per quarter for the past year. But what I would say is if Tesla knew about very specific production bottlenecks right now then now would not be the time to make an offer like this.
现在有人可能会说，这段等待时间的一部分是由于生产规模的限制。我同意，在一定程度上，Cybertruck 的生产线每周的产量还没有超过某个特定的数量，因为在过去一年中，每季度的交付数量大约为 5,000 辆。但我想说的是，如果特斯拉现在知道有非常具体的生产瓶颈，那么现在就不是做出这样的承诺的时候。
But I have to admit the jump from June this year to April of next year does seem like something is going on here beyond just an influx of demand beyond Tesla's expectations. So we'll keep an eye on it but it does look like Tesla has found a winning strategy with the cyber truck and I have not yet seen if any June delivery holders have been pushed back as well or if this is just for new orders but I'll keep an eye out. And if any of you have a reservation please let us know below.
我必须承认，从今年六月跳到明年四月，似乎不仅仅是因为需求超出了特斯拉的预期，好像还有其他事情在发生。所以我们会密切关注。不过，看起来特斯拉在Cybertruck上找到了一个成功的策略。我还没看到有没有六月交付的客户也被延后了，还是只有新订单受影响，但我会继续关注。如果你们中有任何人有预约，请在下面告诉我们。
Benchmark just put out this EV charger density graphic showing the number of electric vehicles per public charger and then in the yellow you have the percentage of fast chargers said another way the Netherlands has the highest density of public EV chargers. So this number five means there are five electric vehicles for every one public charger but interestingly only 3% in the yellow of those are fast chargers and they're denoting fast chargers as anything over 22 kilowatts. The United States on the other hand has the worst EV charger density with 31 electric vehicles for every one public charger but I think it should be noted in the United States a majority of EV owners charge at home not often relying on the public charging infrastructure.
Benchmark刚刚发布了一张电动车充电桩密度的图表，显示了每个公共充电桩所对应的电动车数量，并用黄色标出了快充桩的比例。换句话说，荷兰的公共电动车充电桩密度最高。数字五的意思是每个公共充电桩平均供五辆电动车使用，但有趣的是，其中只有3%是快充桩，而快充桩是指输出功率超过22千瓦的充电桩。另一方面，美国的电动车充电桩密度最低，每31辆电动车才有一个公共充电桩。不过需要注意的是，在美国，大多数电动车车主主要依赖家庭充电，而不常依赖公共充电基础设施。
And then China the biggest EV market in the world has an EV charger density of nine so nine EVs for every one public charger and I shared that as a segue to this news today we learned that EVGO has crossed 5,000 DC fast charging ports in the US which makes them only the third company to accomplish that feat following Tesla and electrify America and that number does include EVGO's chargers and third party chargers operated under the EVGO network talking about the partnerships with GM and pilot EVGO expanded its network by over 1000 ports in less than 14 months that's roughly a 26% increase compared to almost 4,000 posts at the beginning of last year.
然后，中国作为全球最大的电动车市场，拥有的电动车充电桩密度为9：1，即每9辆电动车对应1个公共充电桩。我提到这一点是为了引出今天的新闻：我们了解到EVGO在美国已经有超过5000个DC快速充电桩，使其成为继特斯拉和Electrify America之后第三家达成这一壮举的公司。这个数字包括EVGO自有的充电桩以及EVGO网络下运营的第三方充电桩。谈到与通用汽车和Pilot的合作，EVGO在不到14个月的时间里扩展了其网络，新增了超过1000个充电桩，与去年初接近4000个的数量相比，增长了约26%。
But get this of those 5,000 only 98 ports are actually nacks so far so EVGO has primarily been focused on CCS but the good news going forward EVGO said it plans to expand its nacks footprint to 500 plus stalls this year which means over 400 additional nacks stalls are coming soon and tell your friends EVGO is saying they're going to triple the network size the company announced a plan to expand the network to more than 15,000 stalls by the end of 2029 which would work out to about 2500 new stalls every year for the next four years.
但要注意的是，在这5000个充电桩中，目前只有98个是NACS（北美充电标准）接口，也就是说EVGO主要专注于CCS（组合充电系统）。不过有个好消息，EVGO表示计划今年将NACS接口充电桩增加到500多个，也就是说很快将新增400多个NACS接口充电桩。告诉你的朋友们，EVGO正在说他们将会把网络规模扩大三倍。公司宣布计划到2029年底将充电桩数量扩展到超过15,000个，这意味着在未来四年内每年约增加2500个充电桩。
On the autonomous front one country I'll be watching closely is the UK as its government just said it plans to change regulations in the second half of this year to enable driverless taxis to operate in the city and we know Waymo said it hopes to be operating a robot taxi service in London as soon as September this year we also learned that Uber and Lyft are also ready to launch robot taxi services in the UK when the rules change but interestingly in this article Tesla was not mentioned so I wanted to point out that the UK does not fall under the RDW the Dutch vehicle authorities exemption process so we're waiting on that approval which we were hoping for at the end of this month but it sounds like we won't hear anything until March.
在自动驾驶领域，我将密切关注的一个国家是英国。该国政府表示，计划在今年下半年修改法规，以便让无驾驶员的出租车可以在城市中运行。我们知道，Waymo称希望在今年9月就能在伦敦运营机器人出租车服务。我们还了解到，当法规改变时，Uber和Lyft也准备在英国推出机器人出租车服务。但有趣的是，文章中没有提到特斯拉。我想指出的是，英国不属于荷兰车辆管理局（RDW）的豁免流程范围内，因此我们在等待批准，本预计本月底能有消息，但看来要到3月才能听到。
But I want to be clear even if Tesla's supervised FSD is approved by the RDW and they're granted that exemption the UK will likely follow a separate approval process on its own now that's not to say that they wouldn't be influenced by the decision of the RDW as I do think approval there would be a major positive signal but I just wanted to make it clear that the UK would likely still go through its own process and Chris from dirty Tesla finally got to take his first unsupervised robot taxi ride in Austin.
但我想明确的是，即使特斯拉的自动驾驶（FSD）得到了荷兰车辆管理局（RDW）的批准并获得豁免，英国也可能会按照自己的流程进行单独审批。这并不是说英国不会受RDW决定的影响，因为我确实认为RDW的批准会是一个非常积极的信号。但我只是想说明，英国很可能仍然会进行自己的审核。此外，来自Dirty Tesla的Chris终于在奥斯汀第一次体验了无人监督的自动驾驶出租车之旅。
But he said this I arrived early in Austin yesterday and I was super excited to try an unsupervised robot taxi but the entire day was incredibly discouraging I waited for hours walked all over the city and could barely get a robot taxi to pick me up at all and the few robot taxis I actually did get throughout the entire day every single one had a supervisor in them. But the following day he got one and he took multiple rides but have a listen to what he said about the pricing Tesla has since updated the prices and they are seriously impressive my shortest and lowest cost robot taxi ride of this visit was $1.49 which is just insanely cheap this was about a half mile five minute ride.
他说：“我昨天早早到了奥斯汀，超级兴奋地想尝试一下无人监管的机器人出租车，但整天的经历都令人沮丧。等了好几个小时，走遍了整个城市，却几乎没能搭上一辆机器人出租车。当天搭到的几辆出租车，每一辆都配有监管员。不过，接下来的一天，我确实搭上了一辆真·无人监管的出租车，并多次体验了这样的乘车服务。至于价格，特斯拉更新后的定价真是让人印象深刻。这次访问中，我体验到最短也是最便宜的一次机器人出租车行程只花了1.49美元，这真是便宜得不可思议。这趟大约半英里、五分钟的旅程给我留下了深刻的印象。”
The most expensive and longest drive I had actually the one you're watching right now in this unsupervised robot taxi was $7.40 it was over 32 minutes long and took me 6.4 miles I compared the costs of the robot taxi to Weimo while I was there and from what I could see the Weimo was more than four times more expensive than the Tesla robot taxi one robot taxi trip I took back to my hotel cost $4.57 and when I opened up the Uber app and finally did get a Weimo offered to me it was over $21 for the exact same trip so look I know there's frustration out there about the scaling and I think it will be another few months before things get exciting but when it happens everyone else is doomed no one is going to be able to compete with Tesla's pricing not even close.
我乘坐过的最贵且时间最长的一次驾驶其实就是你现在看到的这次无人监管的机器人出租车。这次行程花费了我7.40美元，耗时超过32分钟，行驶了6.4英里。当时，我对比了一下机器出租车和Waymo的价格，从我看到的情况来看，Waymo的价格是特斯拉机器人出租车的四倍以上。我乘坐机器人出租车回酒店的那次花费了4.57美元，而当我打开Uber应用，终于看到有Waymo可预约时，发现同样的行程竟要花费超过21美元。所以，你看，我知道大家对扩展规模感到有些沮丧，我觉得可能还要几个月时间才能真正令人兴奋，但一旦实现，其他公司都会陷入危机，没有人能在价格上与特斯拉竞争，哪怕接近都不行。
So in my opinion Tesla is going to destroy Weimo and Uber's market share the second there is any sense of scale and improved availability for a robot taxi and we know Weimo can't make a profit at its current pricing and of course there is a world where the serendipity of all of this is perfect 14.3 launches sometime next month gets a month out in the wild of testing and validation then we end up with 14.3.12 or 3 whatever it may be and CyberCab enters production in April some of those vehicles slowly begin deploying on the robot taxi fleet.
在我看来，一旦特斯拉的机器人出租车能够大规模生产且供应更加充足，它将迅速抢占Waymo和Uber的市场份额。目前，Waymo以现有定价无法盈利。当然，也有一种理想情况下，所有这些因素都能完美结合：假设14.3版本在下个月发布，在经过一个月的测试和验证后，我们可能会得到14.3.12或14.3.3版本。接着，CyberCab会在四月进入生产阶段，其中的一部分车辆将逐步加入机器人出租车的车队。
Tesla then becomes comfortable scaling unsupervised with reasoning added and with this 10 times bigger parameter model and then from there it's off to the races and speaking of the CyberCab Joe Tetmire was on brighter with Herbert earlier today confirming that the unboxed manufacturing process is underway there are five parts the front rear the structural battery pack and the interior and then of course the two sides they're constructed in parallel moved by robots and then bolted and or glued together Joe confirmed that the production CyberCab's have no steering wheel and no pedals any that are seen with those controls are still just for testing after Joe's tour of the manufacturing line he did confirm that the wheels on the CyberCab are going to be different front to back.
特斯拉准备在增加推理能力的情况下，放心地扩展无监督学习，并推出了一个大10倍的参数模型。从此，它将迎来发展的新阶段。今天早些时候，Joe Tetmire在Herbert的节目中证实，CyberCab的无盒制造工艺正在进行中。这个工艺涉及五个部分：前部、后部、结构电池组、内饰，以及两侧面板。这些部件由机器人并行构建，然后通过螺栓或胶水组合在一起。Joe证实生产版的CyberCab没有方向盘和踏板，任何带有这些控制装置的车辆都仅用于测试。在参观制造生产线后，Joe还确认CyberCab的前后轮设计将有所不同。
We know the CyberCab is a tear drop shape and the back is going to be more narrow than the front but we also know that the rear wheels are bigger than the ones in the front but further the rear wheels are actually going to be made of an alloy making them lighter and then the front wheels are going to be made of steel helping to make them cheaper but of course both will be covered by the plastic arrow covers so I found that to be interesting not just the size was going to be different but the actual material of the wheel will be different but the takeaway is that everything seems to be on track for April production and if things go well we could start seeing CyberCab's deployed as Robotex's unsupervised in Austin as soon as April or May.
我们知道CyberCab的车身呈水滴形，车尾会比车头更窄。不过，我们也知道后轮比前轮大，并且后轮实际上是由合金制成的，这使它们更轻。而前轮则由钢制成，这样可以降低成本。当然，两者都会被塑料箭型盖板覆盖。我觉得有趣的是，不仅车轮尺寸不同，材料也不一样。不过最重要的是，一切似乎按计划在四月投入生产。如果一切顺利，我们可能会在四月或五月看到CyberCab作为Robotex在奥斯汀进行无人监管的部署。
On the supervised front Sawyer shared this clip of FSD proactively avoiding a potential collision I want you to note how the human driver actually swirved left almost like it was trying to hit the vehicle that was in the lane but FSD saw the potential danger slowed down and got over into the right lane beautifully and how about this from Pete FSD I can confidently say in all of my years watching FSD videos I don't think I've ever seen anything like this so if you want to talk about sentient behavior FSD pulled off to the side of the road safely to let this tailgator go past it and then it safely got back on the road and continued on.
在监督方面，Sawyer分享了一段视频，展示了全自动驾驶系统（FSD）主动避免潜在碰撞的情况。请注意，人类驾驶员实际上向左猛打方向盘，几乎像是要撞上车道中的车辆，但FSD察觉到了潜在危险，减速并优雅地移到了右车道。接下来是Pete的FSD经历，我可以自信地说，在我多年观看FSD视频的过程中，从未见过这样的情况。如果你想讨论智能行为，FSD安全地靠边停车，让紧跟其后的车辆超过，然后它又安全地回到道路上继续行驶。
In Sweden Tesla has applied to conduct FSD supervised testing in a new city this time in John Coping Sweden a public policy rep from Tesla said I can confirm we've submitted an application but I can't say much more about it she also said Tesla is satisfied with the tests in the region so far and we learned today that Abu Dhabi mobility has overseen Tesla's supervised FSD road trials in Abu Dhabi these trials are being conducted within an organized framework designed to assess the technology's performance in real world operating conditions and to verify its operational and safety readiness they said these tests represent a qualitative step to evaluate the text performance in the real world and to collect the necessary data to verify its readiness before any future expansion and usage.
在瑞典，特斯拉已经申请在一个新的城市进行FSD（全自动驾驶）监督测试，这次是在瑞典的容肖平。特斯拉的一位公共政策代表表示：“我可以确认我们已经提交了申请，但不能透露更多细节。” 她还表示，特斯拉对该地区的测试结果感到满意。我们今天了解到，阿布扎比的交通部门已经监督了特斯拉在阿布扎比进行的FSD道路试验。这些试验是在一个有组织的框架内进行的，旨在评估技术在真实操作条件下的表现，并验证其操作和安全的准备情况。他们表示，这些测试是评估技术在现实世界中表现的一个重要步骤，并收集必要的数据，以验证其在未来扩展和使用前的准备情况。
And we have the general public continually waking up to the Tesla story I don't understand how everyone isn't just freaking out like imagine if they sold a washing machine that also dried your clothes and it folded them and to put them away saving you like three hours a week not just that but it's basically perfect and never made mistakes oh but also it cost about the same as every other washing machine that's what Tesla's are full self driving is perfect I've had full self driving for four years and it was garbage for three today it's perfect and like these cars cost the same as other cars and they drive themselves I don't understand why every new car on the road is not a Tesla unless you don't value your time or because you hate the founder I know Tesla prides itself on never advertising that as a shareholder please start but world needs to know about full self driving I'll give you the answer the reason everyone isn't freaking out is because everyone hasn't yet experienced FSD in its latest form.
我们已经看到越来越多的人逐渐意识到特斯拉的故事。我不明白为什么大家没有为此感到惊讶，想象一下，如果有一台洗衣机不仅能洗衣服，还能烘干、折叠并收好，可以每周为你节省大约三个小时。不仅如此，它几乎完美无瑕，从不出错，而且价格和其他洗衣机差不多。这就是特斯拉全自动驾驶的魅力。我用了四年的全自动驾驶，其中三年都体验不好，而现在它已经十分完美了。这些车的价格和其他汽车一样，而它们能自动驾驶。我搞不懂为什么马路上每一辆新车不是特斯拉的，除非你不重视自己的时间或者你讨厌创始人。我知道特斯拉以从不做广告而自豪，但作为股东，我希望他们开始宣传，因为全世界需要了解全自动驾驶。我来告诉你，大家没有感到震惊的原因是，很多人还没有亲身体验过最新版本的全自动驾驶。
Ironically Teslas have full self driving in Australia now so I'm here to test it out and see if it's actually good this Tesla can completely drive itself I'm swapping I'm so over driving I've got so much trust in this thing and I've been in for one minute where a few minutes in now and I have not touched it this is the future baby this is insane just indicated and it's looking at the traffic lights it's about to go through an intersection for me oh my god I'm literally never driving again sorry Jaguar and Land Rover this car drives itself all right I'm literally walking my into that dealership right now and ordering the Model Y for you.
具有讽刺意味的是，特斯拉现在在澳大利亚已经具备完全自动驾驶功能，所以我来这里测试一下，看看它是否真的很好用。这辆特斯拉可以完全自己驾驶，我已经迫不及待了，对驾驶感到厌倦。我非常信任这台车，仅仅试了一分钟后，几分钟过去了，我都没有碰过方向盘。这就是未来，太不可思议了！它刚刚打了转向灯，并在观察交通信号灯，即将为我通过一个十字路口。天啊，我可能再也不用开车了，对不起捷豹和路虎，这辆车自己会开。好了，我马上就要走进那个4S店，给你订一辆Model Y。
Tesla owners in Canada Tesla has adjusted some of the wording around its end lease purchase options there has not been an official announcement but to date lease buyouts in Canada were heavily limited but now customers are being directed to review their lease agreement for purchase eligibility and are told to contact Tesla near the end of their lease if no purchase option is listed so basically just make sure if this applies to you contact Tesla near the end of your lease to see what options are available to you.
在加拿大，特斯拉的车主注意到特斯拉调整了其租赁期满购买选项的相关措辞。尽管尚未有正式公告，但迄今为止，在加拿大的租赁买断选项受到了严格限制。然而，现在客户被指引去查看他们的租赁协议以确认是否具备购买资格，并且如果合同中没有列出购买选项，他们被建议在租赁期结束前联系特斯拉。基本上，如果这条信息对您适用，请确保在租赁期结束前与特斯拉联系，以了解有哪些可用的选项。
For now in Berlin Egame at all and Tesla have agreed to set aside their dispute over that labor meeting as Egame at all said the two sides have agreed not to repeat those allegations and comments until the end of the plants works council election next Wednesday the leader of Egame at all said now just a few days before the works council election we can concentrate fully on the issues there's a lot to do marking a major milestone for installers we have the supply partners group announcing it secured a distribution agreement to supply Tesla power walls and associated accessories this arrangement is in Australia and supply partners is expecting inventory to land in warehouse in late February.
目前在柏林，Egame公司与特斯拉已经同意搁置关于劳工会议的争议。Egame公司表示，双方同意在下周三工厂工作委员会选举结束之前，不再重复这些指控和评论。Egame公司的负责人表示，距离工作委员会选举只剩几天时间，现在我们可以完全专注于相关问题，还需要做很多工作。对于安装商来说，这标志着一个重要的里程碑。供应合伙人集团宣布，他们已经签署了一项分销协议，将在澳大利亚供应特斯拉的电力墙及相关配件。供应合伙人预期库存将在二月底到达仓库。
They said Tesla sets a high bar and we've worked hard to earn the opportunity to represent a brand that customers actively ask for they said power wall is already a category defining product and what's ahead makes it even more compelling Tesla stock closed the day at $408.56 down 2.12% while the NDX was down 1.29% the volume was 10% below the average but you'll notice a few months ago the volume was hovering between 90 and 100 million shares per day and now you'll see the average daily volume is down to around 59 million shares traded per day so the market seems to be in this holding period not sure what to do with Tesla stock right now.
他们说特斯拉设定了一个很高的标准，而我们一直努力工作，以赢得代表一个消费者主动要求的品牌的机会。他们还说，Powerwall已经成为一个定义类别的产品，未来的发展将使其更加吸引人。特斯拉的股票以每股408.56美元收盘，下跌2.12%，而纳斯达克100指数下跌1.29%。交易量比平均水平低了10%，但你会注意到几个月前，交易量每天都在9000万到1亿股之间徘徊，而现在的日均交易量下降到了大约5900万股。因此，市场似乎正处于观望期，目前对特斯拉的股票走向不太确定。
Don't forget check out delete me linked below for anyone interested and if you haven't I would encourage you to take five or ten minutes to look into the data broker industry I hope you guys would agree I am not an alarmist but the data is staggering hope you all have a wonderful day and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.
别忘了查看下面链接的“删除我”——感兴趣的朋友可以看看。此外，我建议你花五到十分钟了解一下数据中介行业。我希望你们同意我并不是危言耸听，但数据显示的情况确实令人震惊。希望大家都有美好的一天，同时非常感谢我所有的Patreon支持者。