Markets Weekly March 21, 2026
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federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 02:10 - Carnage in Rates Market 08:08 - Some Off-Roads For my latest thoughts: ...
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中英文字稿 
你好，朋友们，今天是3月21日，这是我们每周的“March”节目。在开始之前，我有一个非常特别的消息要宣布。今天，我正式发布了《中央银行101》第二版。正如许多人所知，第一版是在2021年初出版的，从那时到现在发生了很多事情。因此，第二版更新了图表中的数据，还讨论了这段时间内发生的很多事情。例如，从LIBOR到SOFR的过渡、硅谷银行的挤兑、国库券回购、学习如何解读国库券的再融资公告等等。整体上，内容增加了约15%，你还会注意到，这本书的尺寸更大，看起来更专业。实际上，我觉得如果这本书出现在Barnes & Noble，人们不会认为这是一本自助出版的书。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello my friends, today is March 21st and this is March it's weekly. Alright, before we begin, I have a very special announcement to make. Today, I am officially launching the second edition to Central Banking 101. As many of you know, the first edition was published in early 2021 and between then and now a lot of things have happened. So the second edition updates the data on the charts, but also talks a lot about the things that happened between then and now. For example, the transition from a library to sofa, run on Silicon Valley Bank, Treasury buybacks, learning how to read the Treasury Refunding announcement and so forth. So overall, it's about 15% more content, but you also notice that the book, the dimensions are physically larger and it looks more professionally done. Actually, I think if I dropped this at Barnes & Noble, people would not think that this is something that was self-published.
现在，我的第一本书是我自己写并自费出版的，书名叫《X-SexS》。您可能不知道，其实书籍的成功是很少见的，即便是那些由出版社及其营销网络推广的书也不例外。我知道我的成功离不开大家的支持，特别是金融推特社区的朋友们。所以，为了表达我的感激之情，我将这本书以50%的折扣价发售。通常《CB101》的价格是20美元，但现在在接下来一到两周的促销期间，只需10美元。我也很快会给我的电子报订阅者发邮件告知这一折扣。非常感谢大家的支持，希望你们也同样喜欢这个版本。好的，现在回到我们的正常节目。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, my first book, I wrote myself and I self-published and it was X-SexS. So you may not know this, but it's actually very rare for books to become success. Even those picked up by publishers with their marketing network. Now, I know I owe the success to all of you guys, especially the financial Twitter community. So as a token of my gratitude, I'm launching this at a 50% discount. Normally CB101 is $20, but now it's going to be on sale for $10 for the sale of the next week or two. And I will send out an email to my newsletter subscribers about this soon. So thanks so much for your support and hopefully you will enjoy this edition as well. Alright, now back to our regular programming.
所以，这过去的一周非常令人激动。我们看到市场出现了巨大的波动。这一切都受到中东战争的驱动。最大的变化当然是全球央行预期的大幅调整，短期市场遭遇了巨大的动荡。首先，我们来谈谈利率市场的发展。其次，我们可以看到这场局势如何发展和结束的一些轮廓。现在来说说最新的动态。先从利率开始说起。如果你观察美国和英国的两年期国债收益率，你会发现这一周是非常不寻常的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So again, this past week was a very exciting week. We had huge, huge moves and markets. Again, everything is driven by the war in the Middle East. Now, the biggest use, of course, is the massive, massive repricing in Central Bank expectations across the world. There was tremendous carnage in the front end. So first off, let's talk about what's happening in the rates market. And secondly, we are seeing some contours as to how this work and end. So let's talk about the latest developments as well. Alright, starting with interest rates. So if you look at the two-year yield in the US and the UK, you can see that this past week has been extraordinary.
现在，看英国的情况，我们可以看到，从高到低，这两年的收益率基本上涨了100个基点。市场现在预计英国央行会有几次加息。上周英国央行召开会议，决定保持不变，并观察局势，但市场越来越相信，由于油价高企，英国央行将不得不采取行动。而在美联储方面，你也可以看到市场有类似的预期，但没有那么极端。市场目前不仅不预计今年会降息，并且在中东战争爆发前，市场还预测会有一到两次降息。但现在，市场预计今年可能会有加息的可能性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, looking at the UK, you can see that from the highs to lows, these two-year yield basically went up 100 basis points. The market is now pricing in a few rate hikes from the Bank of England. Now, the Bank of England did meet last week, decided to stand pat and monitor the situation, but the market is becoming increasingly convinced that due to high oil prices, the Bank of England is going to have to do something. Now, the Federal Reserve, you also see the market doing something similar, but not as extreme. The market is pricing in basically not just no cuts this year, but heading into the Middle Eastern War. The market was pricing in a cut or two. Now, the market is pricing in some probability of a rate hike this year.
因此，你可以看到两年期收益率也在飙升。同样，这种现象在全球范围内都可以看到，包括欧盟和日本。在日本，市场普遍预计日本央行将在下个月加息。因此，根据中央银行学说，当你面临这些能源冲击时，你应该不受其影响。他们的经验来自于20世纪70年代和80年代，那时候油价上下波动频繁。许多与中东有关的地缘政治问题都很难预测。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so you see the two-year yield also surge. Again, this is something that is seen throughout the world in the European Union, in Japan as well, where the market is widely expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates the next month. So, according to Central Banking Dogma, what you would do when you have these energy shocks is that you look through them. So, the three-seining being, and this is from their experience back in the 1970s and 80s, is that oil prices go up and down, and up and down. A lot of this Middle Eastern geopolitical stuff is difficult to anticipate.
因此，如果你现在提高利率，货币政策的影响会有滞后性。因此，当货币政策对实体经济产生一些影响时，这一切可能已经结束。这种观点在2003年的伊拉克战争和沙漠风暴行动中被证明是成功的，当时油价暴涨，但随后几周内就完全崩溃了。这通常是中央银行看待问题的方式。不过，这里面有些细微的差别，比如对美国来说，美联储是一个具有双重目标的中央银行，它既关注充分就业，也关注价格稳定。他们不能完全把注意力放在通货膨胀上。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, if you hike rates now, monetary policy acts with the lag. So, maybe when finally the monetary policy is having some kind of impact on the real economy, maybe this is all over. This was a successful way of looking out the world in the Iraq War in 2003, and also Operation Desert Storm, where oil prices spiked tremendously, and totally, totally imploded in a matter of weeks afterwards. So, that's how a Central Bank would normally look at this. And again, there's some nuance to this, because for the US, for example, the Fed is a dual mandate Central Bank. It's full employment and price stability. They can't really focus totally on inflation to begin with.
对于其他中央银行，例如英格兰银行和欧洲央行，情况有所不同。他们只关心通货膨胀。当然，我觉得你可以根据对能源冲击的看法更有力地讨论调整政策的问题。目前，FOMC中的主要鸽派代表是瓦勒尔（Waller）理事。他在过去几年中预判了很多事情，所以许多人将他视为货币政策的风向标。因此，我和很多人都感到惊讶的是，他在最近一次FOMC会议上并没有提出异议。原因是在一月份，他曾因为劳动力市场显著疲弱及可能大量失业的传言而表示异议。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
For other Central Banks, Bank of England and the ECB, it's a different case. They are only thinking about inflation. And sure, I think you can more make a more forceful case about adjusting policy, depending on how you perceive the energy shock. Now, the leading dove on the FOMC has been Governor Waller. He has a very good track record. He's been right about a lot of things born in the past few years. And so, many people looked to him as to what monetary policy could be. So, I think it surprised me and a lot of people that he did not dissent at the last FOMC meeting, the reason being that in January, he dissented citing notable weakness in the labor market and anecdotal reports that maybe we'll have a lot of job loss.
最近的就业报告显示，工作岗位大幅减少。因此，我本以为沃勒州长可能会持不同意见，但他并没有。在他最近的公开讲话中，他解释了原因。他开始认为，由于今年的劳动力预测不会增长，失业率的持平率可能为零。如果真是这样，那么没有新增就业岗位也不应让人感到意外。当然，失去工作是另一个问题，但这让最近的工作岗位减少显得没那么令人担忧。所以，再次表现得更加强硬。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And subsequently, the most recent jobs report showed a big loss in jobs. So, I was thinking that maybe Governor Waller would dissent. He did not. And in his latest public remarks, he tells you why. He is coming along to the view that because labor force projection is projected to not grow this year, that maybe the break-even rate for the unemployment rate is zero. And so, if that's the case, we should not be surprised if there's basically no job growth. Of course, losing jobs is a whole other matter. But that kind of makes the recent job losses a little bit less concerning. So, again, let's hawkish.
让我们来听听他对能源冲击的看法。我总是想指出这样一种情况：油价上涨然后回落，与油价上涨并长时间保持高位是非常不同的。这就涉及到一个问题，就是这种情况会影响到通货膨胀现象，你必须做出反应，不能视而不见。所以他所说的是，我们可以忽略那些暂时的油价飙升，但如果能源价格是结构性长期上涨，并且持续高位，最终会影响到各个方面。他认为，这种情况下不能无动于衷。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And let's hear what he said about the energy shock. I always want to point out that something where the oil goes up and then it comes down. It's very different than oil goes up and then stays there for a long time. That's where you get back to this issue and it bleeds through back into cornflation. And then you do have to kind of respond. You can't just look through it. So, what he's saying is that sure we can look past these temporary spikes. But if this is a structural long-term thing, like the energy prices go up and just stay up, it's eventually going to bleed into everything. And he doesn't think that he could look through that.
这并不意味着美联储会加息。充分就业的目标仍然是一个限制。但他强烈暗示，至少目前他不计划降息。虽然他也提到，如果劳动力市场进一步变化，并且我们有更明确的信息，他可能会考虑在今年晚些时候支持降息。但目前，他只是处于观望状态。因此，当一个主要的鸽派立场发生这种转变时，市场现在正在预期一个更为鹰派的政策路径。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, that doesn't mean the Fed is going to hike. Again, that full employment mandate is going to be a constraint. But he is strongly suggesting, but at least for now, he's not projecting any cuts. Although he did also note that should the labor market, you know, we can further. And then later on, we have more clarity. He could be open to be advocating rate cuts later in the year. But at the moment, that's that he's going to just wash and see. And so, when you have a leading dove kind of shift like that, the market is now pricing in a much more hawkish policy path.
再次，当央行政策立场发生巨大变化时，它会影响到大量资产。我们在过去的一周也看到了这种情况。标准普尔500指数表现不佳，跌破了100日移动平均线，甚至短暂跌至6500点以下。同样，其他资产如黄金也遭受了相当大的打击。我认为黄金的下跌让很多人感到惊讶，因为通常情况下，地缘政治风险会支撑黄金。但与此同时，美元走强以及利率上升对黄金造成了压力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And again, when you have this huge shift, huge sea change in the stance of central-bank policy, it's going to bleed into a ton of assets. And we see that this past week as well. The S&P 500 did not do very well, broke the 100-day moving average, and even dipped briefly below 6,500. Now, you, other assets like gold also took a pretty big beating. And I think gold is kind of a, I think it's a little bit surprising to many people you'd expect the geopolitical risk to support gold, but at the same time, the dollar strength thing rates are going higher.
你可以看到黄金失去了一些关键的动能信号，例如50日均线。而且，从历史上看，100日均线也一直是一个支撑位，但看起来黄金似乎也失去了这个支撑。因此，市场可能会发生一些技术性调整。过去一周，市场基本上没有任何避险之地。债券在下跌，农业在下跌，黄金在下跌。这是金融资产表现糟糕的一周。放眼全球，情况似乎会继续恶化，除非中东战争方面能传来好消息，这也是我们接下来要谈论的话题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you do see gold losing some key momentum signals, the 50-day moving average, for example. And historically, the 100-day moving average has also been of support. Looks like it lost that as well. So, you could have some technical moves over there. So, there was basically no place to hide in the market the past week. Bonds selling off. Aguri's selling off. Gold's selling off. It was a terrible week in financial assets. And looking across the world, it looks like this is going to continue, unless we get some, finally, get some good news from the war in the Middle East, which is what we'll talk about now.
看一下油价，你会发现油价相当高。布伦特原油的价格大约在110美元左右，波动很大。基本上看起来没有下降的趋势。目前，要获取关于战争的准确消息真的很难。我们当然处在一个充满宣传的时期。你总是会听到美国摧毁了伊朗的所有能力，包括海军、发射装置、导弹等等。但与此同时，伊朗仍在持续发射导弹，对吧？所以有些事情看起来不太对劲。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, just looking at the oil price, you can see that the oil price just kind of is quite elevated. So, it is volatile with Brent Crude around $110. Basically, it's kind of, doesn't look like it's going down. Now, it's really hard to get news, accurate news of the war. We are, of course, at a time where everyone is in full propaganda mode. You hear over and over again that the US has destroyed all Iran's capabilities, its navies, its launches, its missiles, and so forth. But at the same time, Iran keeps launching missiles, right? So, something's not adding up.
现在，很多人当然希望特朗普总统软化立场，大家都期望他这样做。这似乎也是解放日时发生的事情。周五，市场收盘后，特朗普总统在社交平台Truth Social上发布了一条帖子，暗示他正在考虑缩小战争规模。市场对此解读为利好消息，表现非常积极。然而，我对此持谨慎态度，因为我们都知道，特朗普总统说了很多话，但很多事情并没有兑现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, many people, of course, are looking to President Trump to kind of back down. That's what everyone expects him to do. That seems to be what happened in Liberation Day. And on Friday, after the market closed, we had a truth social post from President Trump, suggesting that he's thinking about whiting down the war. And after the market, the markets took that to be some kind of taco and traded very positively. Now, I would be cautious about that because, as we all know, President Trump has been saying a lot of things and a lot of things haven't been adding up.
我觉得这应该刚刚停止了。我们可以走了。他告诉所有人战争已经结束了。但自那以后，战争却升级了。上周最大的升级当然与对能源生产设施的攻击有关。现在，直接的武装行动几乎被阻止，因此能源没能输送出去。但海湾国家的生产能力一直没受影响，直到上周，伊朗导弹袭击了卡塔尔的主要天然气田。卡塔尔是世界上最大的天然气生产国之一。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think this just stopped. We could go. He was telling everyone that the war was very complete. But since then, the war did escalate. The biggest escalation last week, of course, has to do with attacks on energy production facilities. Now, the straight-up arm moves remains largely closed, and so energy is not going through. But the capacity of the Gulf States to produce hasn't been impacted until last week, when we had an Iranian missile attack on major Qatari gas fields. A Qatar is one of the largest gas producers in the world.
根据报道，那次攻击导致他们的产能下降，可能需要几年时间才能恢复到之前的天然气生产水平。这意味着全球天然气生产能力的结构性下降。因此，即使直接的军事行动停止，输送的天然气也会减少，这表示天然气价格将会结构性上升。当然，这也会导致经济增长放缓，投入产出减少。这次伊朗的袭击是对以色列袭击伊朗天然气田的回应。伊朗曾警告称，如果有人攻击我们的能源设施，我们将升级并攻击周边的海湾设施。结果，他们的设施被袭击了，伊朗也正是这样做了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And according to reports, that attack took down their capacity and they may not be able to produce gas at the same capacity for another few years. So that's a structural decline in the capacity of the world to produce gas. So even if the straight-up arm moves were to reopen, fewer gas would flow through. That suggests structurally higher prices. And of course, less economic growth, fewer inputs, fewer outputs. Now, the strike by Iran was in response to Israel's strike on Iranian gas fields. Iran had told everyone that if you strike our energy facilities, we will escalate and we will attack neighboring Gulf facilities. They were attacked, and that's exactly what they did.
特朗普总统似乎有些恐慌，立刻表示这种情况不会再发生。因此，我们在某种程度上有了一些缓和，即互相遏制的破坏。然而，只要直布罗陀海峡依然封闭，这似乎不是解决方案，油价将继续上涨。尽管总统表示他正在考虑结束战争，但同时我们也有报道称他正在派遣海军陆战队。因此，看起来海军陆战队正在被部署，可能在一两周内会有几千名海军陆战队员在伊朗周围集结，作为占领卡尔克岛的一个选项。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And President Trump seems to have panically, panicked in a sense, immediately said that, you know, this is not going to happen anymore. So we do have some degree of detent, mutually extruded destruction over there. But as long as the straight-up arm moves remains closed, it seems like this is just not a solution, and oil prices will continue to drift higher. Now, although the President said that he's thinking about widening down the war, at the same time, we also have reports that he's sending in the Marines. So it looks like Marines are being deployed, and in a week or two, there's going to be a few thousand Marines around Iran, potentially as an option to take Kark Island.
现在，有一些报告显示，总统认为，如果他能占领卡克岛——他认为这是伊朗石油基础设施中的重要部分，尽管有石油分析师不赞同这一看法——也许他会在谈判中拥有更多的筹码，可以要求更好的协议。从他的思维方式来看，这似乎就是他的想法。因此，从这个角度来看，他说战争即将结束可能是对的。如果在他的想法中，他能够成功占领卡克岛然后要求达成解决方案，那么也许战争确实快要结束了。然而，从他视角看，谈判桌上似乎还有三个人不想结束这场战争。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, there are some reports suggesting that the President thinks that if he were to take Kark Island, which he perceives to be a major part of Iranian oil infrastructure, and there are oil analysts who disagree with this, maybe he will have more negotiating leverage to try to demand a better deal. That seems to be how he's thinking about it. So in that sense, maybe he's right in saying that the war is winding down. If in his mind he is able to successfully take Kark Island and then demand a resolution, then yeah, maybe the war is almost over. Again, there are three people at this table from his perspective. It doesn't seem like they want to wind down.
以色列总理内塔尼亚胡曾公开表示，也许需要一个地面行动，而这个地面行动可能包括很多形式。它可能是伊朗人民的反抗，也可能是地面上部署海军陆战队等等。但看起来他不太可能就此放弃。从军事角度来看，任务还没有真正完成，对伊朗的控制还没有实现，或者伊朗的导弹能力还没有被摧毁等。所以在我看来，现在还不是他放弃的时候。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Prime Minister Nanyahu is on the record saying that maybe there might be a ground component that might need, and the ground component could be many things. It could be the Iranian people rising up. It could be Marines on the ground and so forth. But it seems unlikely that he would just call it quits. When from a misrespective, it hasn't really completed the mission, right? It hasn't really taken hold of the Iranian or destroyed the Iran's missile capabilities and so forth. So it doesn't seem to me that it's time for him to quit.
从伊朗的角度来看，我们现在得到了一个有关战争如何结束的有趣视角。今天早上有消息称，伊朗和日本正在就通过战略航道进行谈判。同时还有传闻说一些国家为通过该航道向伊朗支付通行费。因此，对他们来说，战争的一个可能的结局是，他们继续控制这个航道，每个国家都可以通过，但必须支付通行费。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, from Iran's perspective, we're getting kind of an interesting picture of how the war could end. This morning we have news that Iran and Japan are negotiating for passage through the straight-of-art moves. We also have anecdotal reports that some countries are paying a toll to Iran for passage through the straight. So what could happen for them as a potential endgame is that they retain control of the three-of-a-mouse and everyone can pass, but in order to pass, you got to pay up.
现在，这份报告表明付款实际上是以人民币结算的，因此资金将存放在中国的银行中，可以避开美国的制裁。如果情况确实如此，并且伊朗能够保持对资金的控制，那么这对全球经济来说是更好的情况，因为石油和天然气将顺利流通。石油和天然气价格将下降，这对全球经济非常有利，对很多人来说也是好消息。否则，我认为贫困国家可能面临严重的饥荒威胁。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, the report suggesting that the payment is actually settled in R&B, so it would be held in the bank in China, say from US sanctions. If that were the case, if Iran were to be able to retain control of the three-of-a-mouse, so it's better scenario for the global economy than it is now, because oil and gas will be flowing. Gas and oil prices will come down. That is great for the global economy and great for many people, who otherwise I think we would have severe threat of actually starvation in poor countries.
但最终，石油和天然气价格将会长期上涨以弥补这个代价，而伊朗将从中获利。伊朗一直受到所有国家的重重制裁，除了中国和伊朗的朋友们。因此，他们能够获得更多收入，这将对其经济有所帮助。或许他们可以把这看作是对所受损害的赔偿，并愿意就此达成和解。然而，美国和以色列及其他国家似乎不太可能接受一个不仅保持完好的伊朗，还在收取费用盈利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But at the end of the day, oil and gas prices will be structurally higher to account for that toll, and Iran will be making money. Iran has been sanctioned heavily throughout by basically everyone, except China and Iran's friends. So it will be able to get some more income, and that will help them economically. And maybe they can paint this as reparations for the damage done and be willing to settle that. However, of course, it seems unlikely that the United States and everyone else in Israel would accept an Iran not just intact, but also collecting toll making money.
现在，财政部长斯科特·贝桑在周五实际上解除了对伊朗海上石油的制裁，允许伊朗出售这些石油。这种情况已经很久没有发生过了。因此，至少到目前为止，伊朗似乎能够从这场冲突中获利。我们依然身处战争的迷雾中，无法预见未来的发展，但这可能是战争结束的一种方式。在未来几周，每一天这场冲突持续下去，就意味着能源没有被生产，也没有被输送。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, Treasury Secretary Scott Besan on Friday actually lifted sanctions on Iranian oil that is at sea, and allowed Iran to sell that that hasn't happened for a very long time. And so, so far at least, it seems like Iran has been able to make money off this conflict. Again, we are in the fog of war. And we are not going to know what's going to happen, but that's just a possible way that this war can end. In the coming weeks, again, every day that this conflict goes on, that's energy that's not being produced, not being sent.
这增加了全球经济衰退的风险。我个人认为全球经济已经遭受了重创，我们就像是泡在核辐射中。辐射病的表现是，起初你感觉还好，然后感觉不好，最后就死了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that raises the risk of a global recession. I personally think that the global economy has already been nuked. We're all just bathing in radiation. And as radiation sickness goes, first you feel fine, then you don't feel fine, and then you die.
所以，我认为情况并不好，而且我不会仅仅把股票市场当作一个晴雨表来观察。因为，股票市场和整体经济虽然有一定关系，但它们并不是一回事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, I think things are not good, and I wouldn't look solely to the stock market as a barometer, because again, markets, the stock market and really calm me, they are related, but they're not the same thing.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收看，我相信下周也会非常精彩。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Alright, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in, and I think next week will be also very exciting.