I Won't Ever Make a Tesla Video Like This Again ⚡️
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Episode 设置
以下是视频内容的中文总结，包括每一条新闻和演讲者的背景评论：
演讲者首先表达了在最近的财报电话会议后，个人感受到的“精神麻痹”和难以设定明确预期，他觉得有必要坦诚自己的挣扎。他计划先概述要点，稍后再整理思绪。
**演讲者的总体情绪与担忧：**
* 他批评了“超出分析师预期”就代表财报优秀的观点，并指出分析师此前大多被不屑一顾。
* 特斯拉的主要焦点是自动驾驶出租车（Robo-taxi）的扩张，而会议上关于今年的评论“不尽如人意”。
* 他驳斥了“埃隆故意低估”的说法（例如，为了让SpaceX合并保持较低估值），认为这不太可能将自动驾驶出租车扩张推迟一年多。
* 他承认埃隆可能也有“不在状态的日子”，显得更悲观，但他认为“痛苦的预期重置”更符合现实。
* 他指出预期缺乏连续性（例如，埃隆曾表示美国50%的自动驾驶出租车覆盖率，后来又说他们会放慢速度，等待V15）。
**关键新闻与演讲者的分析：**
1. **订单积压：**
* **新闻：** Vaibhav Taneja表示，特斯拉第一季度末的“第一季度订单积压量创两年多新高”。
* **演讲者分析：** 这并非如一些人所说的是“历史最大积压量”。关键在于背景：这包括低价的Cybertruck订单以及第一季度生产但尚未交付的车辆。他认为，即使交付量大幅同比增长（10-20%），也不会对股价产生“巨大的推动作用”，因为目前焦点在于自动驾驶/擎天柱。
2. **柏林超级工厂生产：**
* **新闻：** Andre Tirri宣布，柏林超级工厂将从7月起将Model Y产量提高约20%，5月招聘约1,000名新员工，并将500名临时工转为正式员工。第一季度产量创纪录，超过61,000辆Model Y。
* **演讲者分析：** 尽管这是积极消息，但演讲者对其进行了背景分析：柏林超级工厂的装机产能超过375,000辆/年。创纪录的第一季度61,000辆的产量，年化后仅为244,000辆（65%的利用率），低于汽车制造商通常85%的目标（这应为每季度约80,000辆）。他预计第二季度交付量强劲（由于第一季度积压订单和受监督的FSD驾驶量），但他强调，除非年度销售额同比有意义地增长，否则不会产生预期的股价影响。
3. **Cybercab与监管上限：**
* **新闻：** Lars证实Cybercab *不受*自动驾驶汽车2,500辆的年生产限制（回应了Farzad的问题）。
* **演讲者分析：** 这已是既定事实，但能得到直接确认是好事。特斯拉可以合法地以任何数量部署Cybercab。
4. **无监督自动驾驶出租车扩展：**
* **新闻：** 埃隆表示，在软件架构改进（主要是V15）实现之前，特斯拉“大规模”扩展无监督自动驾驶出租车没有意义。
* **演讲者分析：** 这对今年自动驾驶出租车推出计划来说是一个“巨大的预期下调”。他认为FSD 14.3.2获得好评如潮，这与埃隆的说法相矛盾，特斯拉自己也说问题不在于安全性，而在于“便利性、无限循环、导航和过度犹豫”。他质疑如果不是安全问题，为何不进行扩展并解决小麻烦以拯救更多生命。埃隆后来又说，如果“软件改进……能提高安全性”，他们就不会大规模扩展无监督FSD，这让演讲者觉得自相矛盾（“到底哪种说法是真的？”）。他现在认为100亿英里无监督FSD里程目标（预计在5月初实现）不再是一个重要的里程碑。
5. **Cybercab生产与部署：**
* **新闻：** Cybercab已正式开始生产，旨在取代Model Y作为自动驾驶出租车。Joe Tetmeyer展示了“没有方向盘和踏板的光滑量产版”图片。
* **演讲者分析：** “正式生产”不代表立即部署；可能还需要数周的测试。他感谢埃隆对扩展预期“泼了冷水”，否则会造成不切实际的“一蹴而就”的预期。
6. **演讲者个人对自动驾驶出租车的预期：**
* 他提出了一个“合理基线”：到年底特斯拉在10个城市运营，每个城市有50-100辆无监督车辆（总计500-1,000辆），不包括湾区的受监督车辆。
7. **FSD订阅：**
* **新闻：** 第一季度新增180,000个FSD订阅（一次性购买+按月订阅），创历史新高，环比增长16%。活跃订阅总数达128万。流失率下降，使用率上升。
* **演讲者分析：** 这些是令人鼓舞的迹象，并有助于提高汽车毛利率（不含碳积分）。
8. **客户车辆的无监督FSD：**
* **新闻：** 埃隆猜测，无监督FSD可能会在今年第四季度向客户车辆发布，但有附带条件（天气、极端情况、逐城验证）。
* **演讲者分析：** 他认为这只会在自动驾驶出租车服务已经运行的市场发生，预计将是类似于Waymo的“逐城苦战”。他不期望今年客户FSD会出现“一蹴而就的时刻”。
9. **Hardware 3升级路径：**
* **新闻：** 确认所有HW3车辆都需要升级到AI4或更高版本才能实现无监督FSD。Ashok Ella表示，V14 Light将在6月底前向HW3车辆推出。
* **演讲者分析：** 他估计升级成本（电脑+摄像头）为2,000-3,000美元，或者会提供折价以旧换新。这为HW3车主提供了明确的前进路径。
10. **AI硬件演进（AI4/AI5）：**
* **新闻：** 埃隆表示，AI5最终将用于特斯拉车辆。AI4+（明年投产）的内存带宽将增加一倍，TOPS（每秒万亿次操作）将增加约10%。
* **演讲者分析：** 他认为AI4+的消息令人鼓舞，显示了芯片设计（内存类型/大小）的灵活性，即使在固定SOC的情况下。
11. **自动驾驶出租车事故数据对比（特斯拉vs. Waymo）：**
* **新闻：** 截至3月，特斯拉已行驶170万英里付费自动驾驶出租车里程，自推出以来发生15起事故。截至2月，Waymo已行驶超过2亿英里完全自动驾驶里程，发生1,790起事故。
* **演讲者分析：** 计算每起事故里程（特斯拉：113,000英里；Waymo：111,000英里），他指出这些数字“惊人地接近”，尽管这些数据包括非责任事故。
12. **未来车型（赛博SUV/紧凑型）：**
* **新闻：** 埃隆此前曾暗示过“赛博SUV”或解决三儿童座椅问题的车辆。现在，他明确表示Cybercab将是“紧凑型”的，而Roadster将是长期“唯一可驾驶的车辆”，其余车队将成为“自动驾驶优先”的各种尺寸自动驾驶车辆。
* **演讲者分析：** 埃隆给人们对赛博SUV或新的带方向盘的经济型紧凑型汽车的希望“泼了冷水”。
13. **Roadster亮相：**
* **新闻：** 不会在4月发生，可能在5月，但埃隆听起来“不是特别有信心”，由于正在进行的测试。
14. **“进化版汽车销售策略”：**
* **新闻：** FSD是产品，车辆是“交付机制”。
* **演讲者分析：** 他质疑这种策略在特斯拉官方X账户帖子之外的实际实施情况。
15. **能源业务毛利率：**
* **新闻：** 第一季度能源业务毛利率创纪录，接近40%。然而，这是不可持续的，由一次性关税相关事件驱动。特斯拉预计将面临更多竞争、价格压力以及负面的关税影响（因为大部分电池单元仍来自中国）。
16. **资本支出与自由现金流：**
* **新闻：** 特斯拉澄清，今年剩余三个季度将出现负自由现金流。特斯拉今年将支出200亿美元。SpaceX将支付“实际Terra工厂”的早期部分费用，而特斯拉将专注于在德州超级工厂投入约30亿美元用于“研究工厂”。
* **演讲者分析：** 他不担心负自由现金流，认为这表明特斯拉正在大量投资于众多机会。他指出特斯拉现金充足。他认为埃隆对董事会批准这些安排的态度暗示了未来可能与SpaceX合并，尽管不会很快。
17. **擎天柱（Optimus）生产：**
* **新闻：** 埃隆提到，擎天柱的“开始生产”可能在7月底或8月。他解释了拆除Model S/X生产线并更换为擎天柱生产线需要6个月的时间。
* **演讲者分析：** 他质疑对这种转型期待“世界级速度”是否现实。他表示，“开始生产”是一个里程碑，但市场等待的是 *部署* 到自动驾驶出租车网络、工厂或外部客户。他认为擎天柱“在特斯拉之外发挥作用”（埃隆希望明年）将是更切实的催化剂。他赞赏埃隆在擎天柱生产数量上不给出具体数字的谦逊态度，称其“不可能预测”。
18. **FSD 14.3.2改进（智能召唤）：**
* **新闻：** 关于“显著改进”的智能召唤的热情报告，包括更好的手机连接、响应时间、停车场处理以及行人和车辆导航。智能召唤、FSD和自动驾驶出租车之间的模型已统一。来自“Dirty Tesla”和“AI Driver”的具体例子强调了即时响应和适当的信号/靠边停车。
19. **AI硬件公司收购：**
* **新闻：** 4月，特斯拉同意以高达20亿美元（其中18亿美元取决于服务条件/业绩里程碑）的价格收购一家AI硬件公司。
* **演讲者猜测：** 他将此与Anant Navarti联系起来，后者于12月离开特斯拉，为一家秘密AI硬件初创公司开发芯片，并于4月重新加入特斯拉，暗示他的公司可能已被收购。
**演讲者的总结思考：**
* 他强调，他对特斯拉作为一项投资的长期看法保持不变（“全力以赴”、“仍在增持”、“同样兴奋”）。
* 他承认他的短期预期超出了特斯拉的执行能力，并承担个人责任。
* 他相信埃隆的愿景，但也承认由于不断变化的情况和技术，他所说的一切不能都照单全收。
* 他希望这次坦诚的分享能帮助其他有相似感受的人，理解“微小失望”是这段旅程的一部分。
* 他强调，特斯拉在许多前沿技术领域进行前所未有的努力，这意味着时间表 *会* 改变并无法按时实现。
* 他认为，由于有太多变数和不确定性，预测特斯拉的估值或精确时间表是不可能的。
* 他总结说，今年可能不是许多人预期的“突破性”一年，但他“比以往任何时候都更确定”，大规模扩张的时代即将到来，再等待3-5年，投资者将获得回报。
Here's a comprehensive summary of the video, including every single news item and the speaker's contextual commentary:
The speaker starts by expressing personal "mental paralysis" and difficulty in setting clear expectations after the recent earnings call, feeling a need to be transparent about his struggles. He plans to touch on key points and gather thoughts later.
**Speaker's General Sentiment & Concerns:**
* He criticizes the idea that "beating analyst expectations" signifies a great earnings release, noting analysts were largely dismissed previously.
* The primary focus for Tesla is Robo-taxi expansion, and the commentary on the call for this year was "not good."
* He dismisses the "Elon sandbagging" argument (e.g., to keep valuation low for SpaceX merger) as unlikely to delay robo-taxi expansion for a year+.
* He acknowledges Elon might have "off days" and appears more pessimistic, but finds a "painful reset" of expectations to be more rooted in reality.
* He notes the lack of continuity in expectations (e.g., Elon stating 50% US robo-taxi coverage vs. later saying they'll take it slower, waiting for V15).
**Key News Items & Speaker's Analysis:**
1. **Order Backlog:**
* **News:** Vaibhav Taneja stated Tesla ended Q1 with the "highest Q1 order backlog in over two years."
* **Speaker's Analysis:** This is not "the largest backlog in history" as some claimed. Context is key: this includes lower-priced Cybertruck orders and vehicles produced in Q1 but not yet delivered. He believes even significant delivery increases (10-20% YoY) won't be a "massive needle mover" for the stock due to the current focus on autonomy/Optimus.
2. **Giga Berlin Production:**
* **News:** Andre Tirri announced Giga Berlin will increase Model Y production by ~20% starting July, hire ~1,000 new employees in May, and convert 500 temporary employees to permanent. Record Q1 production was over 61,000 Model Ys.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** While positive, the speaker contextualizes this: Giga Berlin's installed capacity is over 375,000/year. A record Q1 rate of 61,000 would only yield 244,000/year (65% utilization), below the typical 85% automaker target (which would be ~80,000 units/quarter). He expects a strong Q2 for deliveries (due to Q1 backlog and supervised FSD driving volume) but emphasizes that until annual sales meaningfully increase YoY, it won't have the desired stock impact.
3. **Cybercab & Regulatory Cap:**
* **News:** Lars confirmed Cybercab is *not* subject to the 2,500-unit annual cap for autonomous vehicles (responding to a question from Farzad).
* **Speaker's Analysis:** This was already a settled matter, but good to have direct confirmation. Tesla can legally deploy Cybercab in any volumes.
4. **Unsupervised Robotaxi Scaling:**
* **News:** Elon stated it won't make sense for Tesla to scale unsupervised robotaxis at "large scale" until software architectural improvements (primarily Version 15) are implemented.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** This is a "big downshift in expectations" for this year's robotaxi rollout. He finds it contradictory that FSD 14.3.2 is receiving glowing reviews, and Tesla itself says the issue isn't safety but "convenience, infinite loop, navigation, and over-hesitancy." He questions why, if not a safety problem, they wouldn't scale and deal with minor inconveniences to save more lives. Elon later said they wouldn't scale large-scale unsupervised FSD if "software improvements...would improve safety," which the speaker finds inconsistent ("which is it?"). He now considers the 10 billion unsupervised FSD miles target (expected in early May) no longer a significant milestone.
5. **Cybercab Production & Deployment:**
* **News:** Cybercab has officially started production, intended to replace Model Y as a robo-taxi. Joe Tetmeyer showed images of the "glossy production version with no wheel or pedals."
* **Speaker's Analysis:** "Official production" doesn't mean immediate deployment; could still be weeks of testing. He's thankful Elon "poured cold water" on scaling expectations, as the Cybercab news otherwise would have created unrealistic "light switch moments" expectations.
6. **Speaker's Personal Robotaxi Expectations:**
* He proposes a "reasonable baseline" of Tesla operating in 10 cities by year-end, with 50-100 unsupervised vehicles per city (500-1,000 total), excluding supervised vehicles in the Bay Area.
7. **FSD Subscriptions:**
* **News:** Q1 saw 180,000 new FSD subscriptions (outright purchases + monthly), the best quarter ever and up 16% QoQ. Total active subscriptions are 1.28 million. Churn rate is down, and usage is up.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** These are encouraging signs and contributed to strong auto gross margins (excluding credits).
8. **Unsupervised FSD for Customer Cars:**
* **News:** Elon guessed unsupervised FSD could be released to customer cars in Q4 this year, with caveats (weather, edge cases, city-by-city validation).
* **Speaker's Analysis:** He believes this will only happen in markets where robotaxi service is already operating, expecting a "city by city slog" similar to Waymo. He does not anticipate a "light switch moment" for customer FSD this year.
9. **Hardware 3 Upgrade Path:**
* **News:** Confirmed that all Hardware 3 cars will need an upgrade to AI4 or beyond to achieve unsupervised FSD. Ashok Ella stated V14 Light would roll out to HW3 cars before the end of June.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** He estimates the upgrade cost (computer + cameras) to be $2,000-$3,000, or a discounted trade-in will be offered. This provides a clear path forward for HW3 owners.
10. **AI Hardware Evolution (AI4/AI5):**
* **News:** Elon stated AI5 will eventually be in Tesla vehicles. AI4+ (entering production next year) will have double the memory bandwidth and ~10% increase in TOPS (Trillions of Operations Per Second).
* **Speaker's Analysis:** He finds AI4+ news encouraging, showing flexibility in chip design (memory types/sizing) even with a fixed SOC.
11. **Robotaxi Incident Data Comparison (Tesla vs. Waymo):**
* **News:** Tesla has 1.7 million paid robotaxi miles (as of March) with 15 incidents since launch. Waymo has over 200 million fully autonomous miles (as of February) with 1,790 incidents.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** Calculating miles per incident (Tesla: 113,000; Waymo: 111,000), he notes the numbers are "incredibly close," though this data includes not-at-fault incidents.
12. **Future Vehicle Offerings (Cyber SUV/Compact):**
* **News:** Elon previously hinted at a "Cyber SUV" or a vehicle to solve the 3-child seat problem. Now, he explicitly stated the Cybercab would be the "compact," and the Roadster the "only driving vehicle" long-term, with the rest of the fleet becoming "autonomy first" and different sizes of autonomous vehicles.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** Elon "poured cold water" on hopes for a Cyber SUV or a new affordable compact vehicle *with a steering wheel* anytime soon.
13. **Roadster Debut:**
* **News:** Not happening in April, possibly May, but Elon sounded "not overly confident" due to ongoing testing.
14. **"Evolved Vehicle Sales Strategy":**
* **News:** FSD is the product, the vehicle is the "delivery mechanism."
* **Speaker's Analysis:** He questions the practical implementation of this strategy beyond official Tesla X account posts.
15. **Energy Gross Margins:**
* **News:** Q1 energy gross margins were a record, almost 40%. However, this is not sustainable, driven by a one-off tariff-related event. Tesla expects more competition, pricing pressure, and negative tariff impacts (due to most battery cells still from China).
16. **Capex Spend & Free Cash Flow:**
* **News:** Tesla clarified that the remaining three quarters this year will see negative free cash flow. Tesla is spending $20 billion this year. SpaceX will pay for the early part of the "actual Terra fab," with Tesla focusing on a ~$3 billion outlay for the "research fab" at Giga Texas.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** He is not concerned about negative free cash flow, seeing it as a signal that Tesla is investing heavily in numerous opportunities. He notes Tesla has plenty of cash. He believes Elon's tone regarding board approvals for these arrangements indicates a potential future merger with SpaceX, though not soon.
17. **Optimus Production:**
* **News:** Elon mentioned "start of production" for Optimus might be late July or August. He explained the 6-month timeline to tear down Model S/X lines and replace them for Optimus production.
* **Speaker's Analysis:** He questions if expecting "world-class speed" for this transition is realistic. He states that "start of production" is a milestone but the market is waiting for *deployment* to the robo-taxi network, factory, or external customers. He believes Optimus being "useful outside of Tesla" (Elon hopes next year) will be the more tangible catalyst. He appreciates Elon's humility in not giving specific production numbers for Optimus, saying it's "impossible to predict."
18. **FSD 14.3.2 Improvements (Smart Summon):**
* **News:** Enthusiastic reports of "materially improved" Smart Summon, with better phone connection, response times, parking lot handling, and navigation of pedestrians/cars. The model was unified between Smart Summon, FSD, and Robotaxi. Specific examples from "Dirty Tesla" and "AI Driver" highlight immediate responses and proper signaling/pulling over.
19. **AI Hardware Company Acquisition:**
* **News:** In April, Tesla agreed to acquire an AI hardware company for up to $2 billion ($1.8B conditional on service conditions/performance milestones).
* **Speaker's Speculation:** He connects this to Anant Navarti, who left Tesla in December to build silicon for a stealth AI hardware startup and rejoined Tesla in April, suggesting his company might have been acquired.
**Speaker's Concluding Thoughts:**
* He emphasizes that his long-term perspective on Tesla as an investment remains unchanged ("all in," "still acquiring," "just as excited").
* He admits his short-term expectations got ahead of Tesla's execution and takes personal responsibility.
* He believes in Elon's vision but acknowledges that not everything he says can be taken at face value due to evolving circumstances and technology.
* He hopes this candid sharing helps others in a similar boat, understanding that "micro disappointments" are part of the journey.
* He stresses that Tesla's unprecedented efforts across many new frontier technologies mean timelines *will* change and be missed.
* He argues that predicting Tesla's valuation or precise timelines is impossible due to too many moving parts and uncertainty.
* He concludes that this year might not be the "breakout" year many anticipated, but he is "more sure than ever" that the time for massive scaling is coming, and patience for another 3-5 years will reward investors.
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中英文字稿 
今天的视频会有些不同。通常，在财报发布后，我可以快速找出新的信息和信号，整理出一些内容，并对未来的发展有一个不错的预期。然而这次情况有所不同，我需要完全坦诚的是，现在我感到有些心态上的麻痹。所以，今天我的计划是简单谈谈一些事情，说出我认为需要说的话，然后希望在接下来的几天里，我能更清晰地理清思路。在开始之前，先举几个例子来说许多人都说特斯拉超出了预期，因此这是一次很好的财报发布。没错，但是究竟超出了什么呢？这只不过是那些分析师的预期，而多年来，我们基本上已经不再认为这些预期对于真正理解特斯拉这家公司有什么价值。但现在，因为人们想对特斯拉说些积极的话，他们会说“哦，看，他们超出了那些随意的预期，所以一切都很好。”当然，确实有一些非常值得鼓舞的指标我可以提到，但最后很明显，特斯拉的重点一直只有一个，那就是无人出租车的扩展。从这个角度来看，本次电话会议上的评论对今年来说并不乐观，这一点无可回避。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
today's video is going to be a bit different usually after earnings i can quickly pull out what's new what's signal and put something together and have a pretty good expectation of where we're headed going forward this time around that is not the case and i'll just be fully transparent here i feel mentally paralyzed to some degree at the moment so my plan for today is to just touch on a few things say what i think needs to be said and then hopefully in the coming days i can gather my thoughts a bit more and before i get into it just a few examples of what i mean here so many people are saying tesla beat expectations so it was a great earnings release okay but ultimately beat what it's just those analyst expectations which for years we've largely been writing off as having any value to truly understanding tesla as a company but now because people want to say something positive about tesla they'll say oh look they beat those arbitrary expectations so all is well and yes there were certainly some very encouraging metrics that i can touch on but at the end of the day very clearly the focus for tesla has been on one thing and one thing only and that is robo taxi expansion and from that standpoint the commentary on the call was not good for this year there's absolutely no way around it.
现在你可以说埃隆·马斯克在这里有所保留，有很多人指出SpaceX的合并和特斯拉的估值需要保持较低以便于合并的推进。如果你想这样说，尽管去说。我个人不认为埃隆会因为一个在未来12个月内不太可能发生的潜在合并而推迟自己的机器人出租车业务的扩展——将来某个时候可能会发生合并，但要说埃隆会因为这个而推迟机器人出租车的推出，并推迟一年以上，我个人不太相信。我看到很多人说埃隆很疲惫，电话中听起来心不在焉，但我个人并不这样认为。我们必须记住，他是个普通人，尽管他大多数时候看起来像是个外星人。大家都有状态不佳的时候，如果你自己曾经参与过任何项目，我相信你也有一些非常自信、对未来充满期待的日子，同样也有一些觉得一切都不顺利、想放弃的日子。我不是说这两种极端就是他的情况，我只是说，埃隆也会有状态不好的一天。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
now can you make the argument elon is sandbagging here plenty of people are pointing to the spacex merger and tesla's valuation needing to stay low to make that easier and listen if you want to make that argument be my guest i personally don't think elon would delay expanding its own robo taxi business just because of a potential merger that i don't think is going to happen anytime in the next 12 months anyway now at some point i think it's likely but to believe that elon is going to delay the robo taxi rollout just because of that merger and to do so for maybe a year plus personally i'm not buying it and i've seen plenty of people say elon was tired he sounded like he was checked out on the call personally that wasn't my takeaway i think we have to remember the man is human even though it seems like he's an alien most of the time he has off days if you've ever worked on any project yourself i'm sure you have some days where you feel very confident you believe it's going to work and you're excited about the future then on other days it feels like nothing's working and it's never going to work and you just want to throw up your hands and give up and i'm not saying either of those extremes are the case here i'm just saying elon's going to have off days.
也许在电话中，他的语气比较悲观低落，但实际上正如我一直所说的，我对此并不感到困扰。我宁愿让预期回归现实，而不是把期望定得过高，导致无法实现，最终让所有特斯拉投资者感到失望。虽然现在调整预期可能会有些痛苦，但这都是我当前问题的一部分，我实际上在努力搞清楚今年合理的期望到底是什么。对我个人来说，我可能会干脆不设任何期待，让事情自然发展。我真心想享受这个过程，继续关注我所热爱的公司，并不断学习特斯拉正在推进的这些前沿科技。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so maybe on the call he had a more pessimistic downtrodden day but truly as i've been saying all along i'm actually good with that i would rather have the expectations come down and be more rooted in reality than have them set so high unattainably high and then all these tesla investors become disillusioned so it might be a painful reset right now as we reset our expectations for what 2026 will be but this is all part of my problem right now is i'm actually struggling to figure out what the proper expectations are for this year and truly for me personally i think i might just remove all expectations and let things develop as they will i really do want to enjoy this season i want to continually cover the company that i enjoy and continue to learn about all of this new frontier technology that tesla is pushing forward.
为了表达意思并尽量易读地翻译成中文，这段话可以如下表述：
无论是好消息还是坏消息，在电话会议中听到 Elon 的发言总是个亮点。不过，我们希望这些预期能够更连贯。在某次电话会议上，Elon 可能会说到，到某个时间点，美国有50%的地区会被自动驾驶出租车覆盖。然后，再过几周，又变成他们需要放慢速度，因为他们还在等待第15版软件。当然，特斯拉依然可以用第14版的系统进行扩展，听起来他们也会这么做。但要实现更大规模的里程碑式进展，特斯拉自己现在也说在等待版本15。这就是问题所在：特斯拉在做前所未有的事情，正如Elon所说，预测时间表基本上是不可能的。我不想继续啰嗦，所以先提供一个支持我们频道的小机会，然后我们会继续讨论。我要坦白，我已经被3W公司转变为支持者了，它们是这个视频的赞助商。但我们已经在Ashley的Model Y上测试了整个冬季的3W脚垫，清洗它们，效果非常好，所以我也在我的Model 3上安装了一些。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
but i will say good day or bad day for elon on the call it would be nice to have more continuity for these expectations one call you get elon saying 50 of the u.s will be covered by robo taxi and then fast forward a few weeks later and it's well we're actually going to take this slower because we're waiting for version 15 and yes obviously tesla can still scale with version 14 and it sounds like they will but to get to any actual scale needle moving scale it sounds like tesla itself is now saying we're waiting for v15 and so ultimately that's the problem is that what tesla is doing has never been done before and trying to predict these timelines as elon said is basically impossible but i really don't want to keep rambling here so here's a quick opportunity to support the channel and then we'll get into it i have to come clean i have been converted 3w is the sponsor of this video now but we've had these 3w mats in ashley's model y all winter testing them cleaning them and they passed with flying colors so it was time for me to install some in my model 3.
在过去几年里，我测试了许多不同品牌的产品，毫无疑问，3W 目前是我们的最爱。它们的产品有一个全金属后跟板，采用了他们所谓的“Vigor Mold Tech”设计，这种设计增强了耐用性。后跟板由铝合金制成，远不止是为了美观。到目前为止，我们没有遇到任何边缘翘起或变形的问题。即使经历了我们国家最严酷的冬天，这些脚垫也被证明非常耐磨。
清洁这些脚垫比我试用过的其他品牌要容易得多，我就不点名了，这意味着无论它们变得多么脏，你都可以轻松恢复到如新的状态。它们完全没有异味，这要归功于它们的Thorax环保材料，100%无毒，对婴儿和宠物安全，防水且极其耐用。或许最重要的是，这些脚垫在我的使用经验中几乎不会移动。它们的背面设有防滑钉，脚垫贴合非常好，并且有高边缘保护，以防止水和小石子弄脏你的地毯地板。它们不仅覆盖全面，而且我个人也很喜欢它们的外观。3W 至少使用了50%的再生材料，我想特斯拉也会对此表示赞赏。我确实认为这些脚垫适合各种条件。
如果你想保护你的特斯拉并支持我们的频道，你可以使用我下面的链接，在3W 的网站上获得33%的折扣，或者在亚马逊上使用我的代码3WDYLAN获取30%的折扣。即使你现在不需要脚垫，也可以将链接收藏，以备将来之需。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i have tested a bunch of different brands in just the past few years and without question 3w is our favorite right now they have this full metal heel plate which is designed with what they call their vigor mold tech and it's for extra durability it's made from aluminum alloy and this goes far beyond just aesthetics we've had zero edge lifting or deformation so far and these mats have now proven to be super wear resistant even through our winters which are some of the harshest in the country cleaning these mats is much easier than some other brands that i've tried that i won't name meaning you can restore these to like new no matter how dirty they get they have zero odor and that's thanks to their thorax eco-friendly material that's 100% non-toxic baby and pet safe waterproof and ultra durable and maybe most important of all these mats really don't move at all in my experience they do have those anti-slip studs on the back the mats fit incredibly well and they do have those high edge guards to keep water and pebbles off your carpet floors and not only is the full coverage nice but i happen to really enjoy the look of these as well and 3w uses at least 50% recycled material so i think tesla would approve of that and i do think these mats are excellent for any and all conditions so if you'd like to protect your teslas and support the channel you can use my links below to get 33 off 3w's website or 30 off on amazon with my code 3wdylan and even if you don't need mats right now just bookmark the link for when that time comes.
我这里要逐个想法表达，不按特定顺序来。杰夫·卢茨说，今晚所有对特斯拉的负面评论中遗漏的关键事实是，我们在第一季度以公司历史上最大的汽车订单积压量收尾。但这其实不准确。Vaibov实际上说的是，我们在第一季度结束时达到了两年多来最高的第一季度订单积压。因此，Vaibov似乎是在说第一季度的订单积压比2025年和2024年更好，仅此而已，这并不是特斯拉历史上最好的纪录。根据Vaibov的说法，他似乎只是与其他第一季度进行比较。但更重要的是，背景总是关键。一方面，我们有许多低价Cybertruck的订单，那么这些订单中有多少构成了积压？此外，我不知道他们是否把这包括在他们的说法中，但我们知道特斯拉在第一季度生产了很多车辆，但这些车辆还没有交付给最终客户，所以没有被计算为交付。但即便如此，现在的关注点已经更多地转向了自动驾驶和Optimus，考虑到特斯拉的估值，即使他们每年增加10%到20%的交付量，我认为这也不会对整体产生巨大影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i'm just going to go thought by thought here in no particular order jeff lutz said the number one missing fact from all the tesla hating commentary this evening is that we exited q1 with the largest backlog of auto orders in our history but that's not actually accurate what vaibov actually said was on the auto backlog front we ended the quarter with the highest q1 order backlog in over two years so it seems like vaibov was saying the q1 backlog was better than 2025 and 2024 but that's it it's not the best in tesla's entire history and based on how vaibov phrase that it seemed like he's only comparing to other q1s but more importantly as always the context is king here on one hand we have all of those orders for the lower priced cybertruck so how many of those are making up for this backlog and further i don't know if they're including this in what they said but we know tesla had plenty of vehicles that were produced in q1 that just didn't make it to the end customer yet so they were not counted as deliveries but again because now so much of the focus is already on autonomy and optimus given tesla's valuation even if they increase deliveries by 10 20 year over year i just don't think it's going to be a massive needle mover.
关于车辆交付的问题，还有另一件事。Andre Tirri提到，柏林超级工厂迎来了一个好日子。他们计划从今年7月开始将Model Y的产量增加大约20%。另外，他们将在5月开始招聘约1000名新员工，并将500名临时员工转为正式员工。在第一季度创造了创纪录的成绩之后，他们在柏林超级工厂生产了超过61,000辆Model Y。这看起来很令人振奋，但我们需要将其放在更大的背景中来看。
柏林超级工厂的年装机产能超过37.5万辆。如果按照特斯拉第一季度的记录，即61,000辆的生产速度一直持续到年底，那么柏林超级工厂今年将生产大约24.4万辆，这相当于65%的工厂利用率。
在这种情况下，我实际上认为特斯拉有可能在剩下的三个季度中，持续超过每季度61,000辆的记录，但即便如此，他们仍然未达到预期的工厂利用率目标。通常，汽车制造商的目标是达到约85%的工厂利用率，以最大化利润。通过计算，柏林超级工厂每季度需要生产约80,000辆车，才能达到85%的目标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
but on vehicle deliveries another thing andre tirri great day for giga berlin they're increasing model y production by about 20 starting july this year they're also hiring about a thousand new employees starting in may and they're converting 500 temporary employees to be permanent that follows a record q1 where they built more than 61 000 model y's at giga berlin which okay on the surface that's awesome you love to see it but again let's contextualize this on the slide deck giga berlin has an installed capacity over 375 000 per year if you take tesla's record q1 production from giga berlin of 61 000 and keep that record rate throughout the year that would still only be 244 000 vehicles from giga berlin for the year which would work out to a 65 factory utilization rate and now in this case i actually think it's reasonable for tesla to continually exceed that record of 61 000 units a quarter throughout the remaining three quarters of the year but even if they do that they will still be below their desired target factory utilization rate ordinarily automakers aim for about 85 percent factory utilization to maximize profits and just doing the math here that would work out to about 80 000 units per quarter from giga berlin to hit that 85 percent target.
当然，一方面，柏林超级工厂的产能扩张是一个很棒的事情，需求似乎在整个欧盟地区不断增长。这些都是令人振奋的。然而，与此同时，柏林超级工厂仍然有大量工作要做，以达到他们想要的产能利用率。就像安德烈·蒂里克在2025年所说的，柏林超级工厂生产了大约20万辆汽车，远低于其安装产能。正如我几周前所说，我认为特斯拉在第二季度的交付量会很强劲，部分原因是第一季度的积压订单，并且很明显，受监管的全自动驾驶开始增加销量。特斯拉可以在很多地区强调需求的改善，但除非这最终能在年销售量上呈现出显著的同比增长，否则它不会对特斯拉股票产生很多人所期望的那种影响。转移焦点到备受关注的监管自主驾驶，拉斯突然现身回复法扎德说“不”。而法扎德的问题是，大家能否澄清自动驾驶汽车的2500辆限制是否适用于CyberCab。所以我从拉斯那里得到的确认即是我们已经确定的事实：CyberCab不受每年2500辆的限制。因此，我个人认为这个问题在几周前已经解决，但直接来自拉斯的确认意味着，从法律上来说，特斯拉现在可以按照他们想要的数量部署CyberCab。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so yes on one hand it's awesome that giga berlin is expanding production demand seems to be increasing across the eu those are awesome things but it's simultaneously true that giga berlin still has meaningful work to do to get the factory utilization rate where they want it and for all of 2025 andre tirik himself said giga berlin produced in the neighborhood of 200 000 vehicles well short of the installed capacity and as i said weeks ago i think tesla will have a very strong q2 for deliveries part of that backlog from q1 and very clearly supervised fsd is starting to drive incremental volume and so tesla can highlight all of these different regions where they're seeing improved demand but until that results in annual sales finally increasing year over year and doing so in a meaningful way it's just not going to have the tesla stock impact that i think a lot of people are expecting it to have and shifting the focus to where all eyes are on supervised autonomy lars came out of nowhere and replied to farzad saying no and farzad's question was hey guys can you clarify if the 2500 limit for avs applies to cybercab or not so I'll take that from lars to confirm what we've already said to be true the cybercab is not subject to the 2500 unit annual cap so personally I think this was already a settled matter weeks ago but there you go direct from lars which means yes legally tesla can now deploy the cybercab in any volumes it sees fit.
埃隆在电话中明确表示，特斯拉不会在大规模部署无人监管的自动驾驶出租车之前进行扩展，直到他们完成所有这些软件架构的改进，主要是针对第15版。我可以花接下来的10分钟来分析埃隆所说的大规模是什么，他所说的明年之前不会成为重要收入贡献者是什么意思。埃隆眼中的“重要”是指1亿美元还是10亿美元？最终我可以像其他人一样猜测，但仅仅只是猜测。但不管别人如何试图扭转这个现实，我们从埃隆说美国50%的地区将有自动驾驶出租车，到他说我们需要完成软件编写、验证并发布后才会大规模部署无人监管的自动驾驶功能。不过即便是埃隆自己也澄清说这取决于大规模的定义。如果你信任埃隆的话——我承认我现在个人上对此有点难——这一评论实际上是大幅降低了对今年自动驾驶出租车推广的预期。这无法粉饰老实跟你们说，我心底有5%在想，埃隆可能是在故意推低股价，因为他们计划在今年晚些时候开始扩展，他知道股价会随之上涨，因此想给特斯拉的股东再一次抄底的机会。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
but elon literally said on the call that it won't make sense for tesla to scale unsupervised robotaxis at large scale until they make all of these software architectural improvements that they have in the pipeline primarily with version 15 and listen I could spend the next 10 minutes running numbers about what elon means by large scale what does he mean that it won't be a material revenue contributor until next year i mean what is material in elon's eyes 100 million dollars a billion dollars ultimately I can make a guess like anybody else but that's all that it is but again I don't care how anybody tries to spin it or how they try to cope with this reality but we went from elon saying that 50 of the united states would be covered with robotaxis to elon saying I think we're going to want to finish writing that software validate it and release it before going to large scale unsupervised fsd but even he clarified depending on what large scale means so if you take elon at his word which I am admitting I'm personally struggling to do right now this commentary is simply a big downshift in the expectations for the robotaxi rollout this year you cannot sugarcoat it and I'll be honest with you guys there's like five percent of me that's thinking in the back of my head elon is trying to send the share price down one more time because they're gonna start scaling later this year he knows the stock price is going to run up and he wants to give tesla shareholders one more buy the dip opportunity.
所以我并不免疫于那些关于埃隆·马斯克在夸大其词的想法，而且当你看到正在推出的14.3.2版本的表现时，大家似乎对其出色的表现赞不绝口。特斯拉团队表示，这并不是一个安全问题，而更多是一个便利性的问题，涉及到导航中的无限循环和过度犹豫的问题，这也是他们暂缓扩展的原因。我想有些人会更加沮丧，因为事实上，特斯拉可能现在就可以扩展其已有系统，且依然会很安全。只不过，他们需要处理更多客户被困在那些无限循环中，或者被拦在不必要的红灯前。然而，我一方面喜欢特斯拉的谨慎和耐心，因为他们希望用户体验良好。但另一方面，如果这确实不是一个安全问题，也就是说他们对安全性没有疑虑，那为何不进行扩展，忍受一些因便利性问题尚未解决而产生的批评呢？因为即便有这些限制，如果安全性如他们所说的那么好，是不是应该开始挽救更多生命，并减少司机数量呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so I'm not immune to all of those elon is sandbagging thought patterns plus when you look at the performance of 14.3.2 that's now rolling out everybody seems to have glowing reviews of how stellar it is and the tesla team said it's not really a safety problem it's more of a convenience an infinite loop a navigation and an over hesitancy problem for why they're not scaling and I think some people get even more frustrated because the reality is tesla probably could scale what it has now and it would still be very safe it's just they would have to deal with more customers being stuck in those infinite loops or being stuck in cars that are sitting at a red light unnecessarily so again on one hand I love that tesla's being cautious and patient because they want the customer experience to be good but on the other hand if it's a fact that it's not a safety problem meaning very clearly they have no concerns about safety then why wouldn't they scale and just take some of that backlash for the convenience things that aren't ironed out yet because despite those limitations if the safety is that good as they're saying wouldn't it make sense to start saving more lives and taking more drivers out of the equation.
各位，我之前就提醒过你们，这个视频会有所不同。我希望分享我的思维模式和思考过程，哪怕对你们中的少数人来说也是有价值的。我知道今天我们没讲太多数据，但出于某种原因，我只是希望通过展示我的想法，能够鼓励到一些你们中的人，让你们觉得在解决这些问题时并不孤单。
如果你还不知道，埃隆在这里说，他认为限制机器人出租车大规模部署的原因其实不是安全性问题，而是便利性问题。但后来他说，我认为在我们知道有能提高安全性的软体改进正在进行中时，大规模部署无人监督的全自动驾驶仍是不合适的。当然，从某种程度上讲，安全性终究是一个不断优化的过程，因为安全不是一个终点，而是一个梯度。所以，我就觉得特斯拉不能出来直接说“还不够安全，无法扩展规模”，因为那样的话，现有的用户可能会开始担心，不知道自己是不是应该使用这项服务。
我也不清楚，也许我分析得太多了，今天就是有点想不通。虽然一方面他们说不是安全性的问题，但后来埃隆又说我们不会扩展规模，因为我们有可以提高安全性的改进措施。所以我心里就在想，究竟是哪一种情况呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and guys I warned you this video was going to be a bit different I hope me sharing more of my thought patterns and my thought process is somehow valuable to even a few of you I know we're not very data heavy today but for whatever reason I'm just hoping that my transparency into how I'm thinking about all of this can maybe encourage some of you help you feel like you're not alone as you try to work through some of these things and if you missed it elon said right here I think a lot of what limits wider deployment of robotaxi are actually not safety issues but convenience issues but later he said I do think it would not be right for us to go to very large scale unsupervised fsd when we know that there are software improvements in the pipeline that would improve safety but of course to some degree there will always be improvements in the pipeline that are improving safety because that safety is not an end destination it's a scale it's a gradient so part of me just feels like tesla can't come out and say well it's not safe enough to scale yet because then current riders might start to think oh well maybe I shouldn't use the service and I don't know maybe I'm just being too analytical here and I'm having one of those days but on one hand they say it's not safety that's the problem but then a few lines later elon's saying well we're not going to scale because we have things that are going to make it safer so in my head I'm just thinking well which is it
根据新的期望，我认为现在可以安全地说，特斯拉实现那100亿英里无监督全自动驾驶的里程目标，显然不会有一些人期待的影响。按照目前的进展速度，这个100亿的数字将在五月初达到。不过，对我来说，这个数字现在不再是一个里程碑。此外，特斯拉表示，"Cybercab"将开始取代Model Y作为无人出租车，并且我们在电话会议中了解到Cybercab已经正式开始生产。Joe Tetmeyer今天还展示了新款闪亮的Cybercab的图片，这是真正的生产版本，没有方向盘或踏板。
需要澄清的是，尽管这些是正式的生产版本，但并不意味着它们会立即被部署到网络中。它们可能会，但也可能需要几周的测试。事实上，Elon在会议上对今年无监督扩展的泼冷水行为几乎是件好事。若不如此，鉴于Cybercab终于正式不限于2500辆的生产上限，而且已经无方向盘和踏板投入生产，全国公路交通安全管理局（NITSA）的事故数据仍然非常强劲，14.3.2版本的早期评测也非常优秀，现在的期望可能会非常高。所以从这个角度而言，我非常感谢Elon说了这番话，因为这让许多人回到了更理智的期望。
如果他们真的开始比我们预期的更快地扩展，那将是一个意外的惊喜。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and with these new expectations I think it's now safe to say that tesla hitting that 10 billion miles driven unsupervised fsd the counter that's pretty clearly not going to have the implications I think some of us were hoping that it might and at this pace that 10 billion number is going to be hit in early may but for me at this point I'm just removing that number as a milestone altogether and now tesla did say that the cybercab would begin to start replacing the model y as a robo taxi and as we learned on the call the cybercab has officially started production and today joe tetmeyer showed some images of the new glossy cybercab the actual production version with no wheel or pedals now to be clear just because these are official production versions doesn't mean that they're immediately going to be deployed onto the network now they might but they also might end up in testing for weeks to come and I have to say it's almost good that elon poured cold water on the call on the scaling of unsupervised for this year because had he not done that I think the expectations right now would be through the roof given that cybercab is finally officially not subject to the 2500 unit cap it's now officially in production without a wheel and pedals the incident data from nitza is still incredibly strong and all the early reviews of 14.3.2 are stellar so I think most of us at this point would have been expecting one of those light switch moments not for customer cars but at least for the robotaxi network so from that perspective I'm very thankful that elon said that because many of us can now come back down to earth a little bit and if they do start to scale faster than we think then that's a surprise to the upside
现在来说说我的期望。正如我之前提到的，我还在思考当中，但目前如果特斯拉能在今年年底前进入10个城市，每个城市有50到100辆无人监管的车辆，对我来说，鉴于我们掌握的信息，这是一个合理的基本预期。这意味着在这些城市中运行的无人监管车辆将在500到1000辆之间。为了方便讨论，我暂时不考虑旧金山湾区的那些有人监管的车辆。显然，某些城市的车辆可能比其他城市多，比如一个城市有200辆无人监管的车辆，而一个新城市可能只有5到10辆。当然，我给出的数字只是我期望的平均值。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and now for my own expectations which I said earlier I'm still working through here but in this moment if tesla can be in 10 cities by the end of this year with between 50 and 100 unsupervised vehicles in each city for me given everything we have to go on I think that's a reasonable baseline expectation and that would be somewhere between 500 and a thousand unsupervised vehicles operating in those cities for argument's sake I'm just leaving out those supervised vehicles in the bay area for now and obviously it's more likely that some cities have more than others maybe one has 200 unsupervised whereas a newer city only has five or ten but of course the numbers I gave there were just averages for my expectations.
现在，当谈到特斯拉的超级驾驶（FSD）时，我做了一张图表，显示在第一季度，特斯拉新增了18万个FSD订阅，这是自特斯拉开始公布这一指标以来表现最好的季度，环比增长了16%。目前，特斯拉拥有128万活跃的FSD订阅用户，包括一次性购买和按月订阅的用户。据说FSD的流失率正在下降，客户也在更多地使用FSD。这些都是鼓舞人心的迹象，也是特斯拉能够在不算上信用方面实现如此强劲的汽车毛利率的一个重要原因。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
now when it comes to supervised fsd I put this chart together that shows in q1 tesla added 180 000 fsd subscriptions which by far was the best quarter ever since tesla started reporting this metric and it was up 16 percent quarter over quarter so tesla now has 1.28 million active fsd subscriptions both outright purchases and monthly vibe of said the churn rate for fsd was going down and customers were using fsd a lot more so all encouraging signs and a big part of the reason tesla was able to deliver such strong auto gross margins x credits.
我知道埃隆说他预计可以在今年第四季度开始向客户交付无需监督的完全自动驾驶(FSD)功能，但是他也提到了一些条件，比如天气状况、某些城市中的特殊案例，以及特斯拉如何需要逐个城市或地区验证这种功能的安全性。对我来说，他们唯一能够做到这一点的方法就是在已经推出其自动出租车服务的地方。所以，如果特斯拉在那些已经有自动出租车运营的市场中向客户推出无需监督的FSD，我一点也不会感到惊讶。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and I know that elon said he's guessing they can start delivering unsupervised fsd to customer cars sometime in q4 this year but he shared all those qualifiers about the weather and the edge cases in certain cities and how tesla is going to have to somehow validate that it's safe to release unsupervised city by city or geography by geography and for me the only way they can actually do that is if it's a place where they've already launched their robo taxi service so I would not be surprised to see tesla launch unsupervised fsd to customers in markets where robo taxi is already operating.
我实在看不到特斯拉还有什么其他方法，可以让他们在所有这些地区真正验证到足以放心让这些地区的客户汽车无人监督地运行。我知道很多人一直在期待今年会有一个“按下开关”的时刻，但从目前的情况来看，这似乎不会发生。即便我们有联邦级别的自动驾驶车辆框架，我仍然认为特斯拉不会实现那个“开关”时刻，根据他们刚刚所说的情况来看也是如此。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i just don't see any other way for tesla to truly validate all of these other geographies to the point where they're comfortable having all those customer cars in that geography run unsupervised and I know a lot of people have been waiting for that light switch moment this year but by the tone of things it sounds like that's not going to happen but the differentiator is even if we had this federal level framework for autonomous vehicles I still don't think tesla would have that light switch moment based on what they just said.
我预期今年我们仍然会像Waymo一样，一步一步在各个城市推进。希望到明年，随着特斯拉推出版本15和AI 4.1或更高级的版本，有可能会有所改变，特别是在联邦框架通过的情况下。然而，很明显，特斯拉仍在努力让系统达到大规模运行所需的信心。这并不是好消息，但至少我们得到了确认：所有配备硬件3的车辆都需要升级到AI4或更高版本，才能实现无人监督的功能。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so i'm expecting for this year we're going to be stuck in this city by city slog just like waymo has been doing and hopefully next year with version 15 and this ai 4.1 or 4 plus that tesla is now talking about that could start to change if we do see a federal framework for avs but clearly tesla is still developing the confidence it needs with the system to have this running at scale and it's not good news but at least we got the news that yes officially all hardware three cars will need a path to be upgraded to ai4 or beyond to achieve unsupervised.
我估计进行这次升级，包括电脑和所有摄像头的费用大概在两到三千美元之间，因为你需要同时升级这两部分。不过，可以选择打折的以旧换新方案，所以总算有一个明确的解决方案。阿肖克提到，在六月底之前，v14轻量版应该会在硬件三上的发布。而如预期所说，埃隆表示最终AI5会被应用到特斯拉车辆中，因为某个时候AI4将显得过时，但这预计还需要几年的时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
my guess is it would cost somewhere between two and three thousand dollars to do this upgrade both for the computer and all of the cameras because you would need both but that or a discounted trade-in will be options so finally there's a clear path forward for the hardware three gang and before any of that ashok said that v14 light should roll out to hardware three before the end of june and as expected elon did say eventually ai5 will make it into tesla vehicles because at some point ai4 will just be too old but it sounds like that won't happen for a few years.
因为现在特斯拉推出了计划明年投产的AI4+芯片，这款芯片的内存带宽将翻倍，不仅如此，其计算能力——每秒处理的万亿次运算（TOPS）——也将提高大约10%。对我来说，听到这个消息非常振奋，因为我们上周才讨论过，特斯拉可能会根据不同的最终应用（无论是在数据中心、车辆中还是在Optimus机器人中），调整这些芯片的内存，例如AI5、AI6或更高版本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
because now tesla has this ai4 plus set to enter production next year that's going to have double the memory bandwidth and not only that but a roughly 10 percent increase in the tops trillions of operations per second or the compute power so for me this one was quite encouraging to hear because we just talked last week about how tesla will likely adjust the memory on these chips whether ai5 six or beyond for different end use applications whether in a data center or in a vehicle or in optimus.
因此，中间部分的芯片设计已经固定下来，就是所谓的系统级芯片（SoC），但特斯拉在不同类型和大小的存储器方面仍然有很大的灵活性。听起来特斯拉正是这样做的，甚至不需要等到AI5，而是在AI4上做出调整。同时，特斯拉累计的付费自动驾驶出租车里程截至3月已达到约170万英里，这里只是稍微增加一些背景信息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so the tape out for that middle portion the soc the system on chip that gets locked into place but tesla still has all of that flexibility with the different memory types and sizing on the sides and it sounds like that's exactly what tesla is going to do not even waiting for ai5 but with ai4 and shifting to tesla's cumulative paid robotaxi miles currently sitting at about 1.7 million miles as of march just to add a bit of context here.
我们可以理解为什么有很多人坚决认为Waymo现在遥遥领先。显然，我并不是其中之一。但是，他们在今年二月份宣布已经完成了超过2亿英里的全自动驾驶里程。我之所以分享这些，是因为我觉得这些数据相当有趣。这是来自NITSA的关于无人驾驶出租车事件的数据，按提供商进行了分类。Waymo自成立以来有1790起事件。如果将特斯拉的付费无人驾驶出租车里程170万英里除以自推出以来的15起事件，结果是每发生一起事件的行驶里程为11.3万英里。再看Waymo的付费里程，截至目前超过2亿英里，但为了保险起见，按事件数除以他们的行驶总里程得出，每发生一次事件的行驶里程为11.1万英里。同样需要说明的是，这些数据存在缺陷，因为其中包括了特斯拉和Waymo不负责任的事件，但每次事件对应的付费里程数其实非常接近。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so we can all understand why there are so many people that still adamantly argue that waymo's so far ahead now obviously I'm not one of those people but they just announced over 200 million fully autonomous miles and that was february this year but I'm sharing that because I thought this data was pretty interesting this is the sgo from nitza for robotaxi incidents it's broken down by a provider and waymo has 1790 incidents since it started if you take tesla's paid robotaxi miles of 1.7 million divided by the 15 incidents since launch that works out to 113 000 miles per incident then if you take waymo's paid miles to date which is now higher than 200 million but just to be safe divide that by their number of incidents since launch that works out to 111 000 miles per incident and again this data is flawed because this includes incidents where tesla and waymo were not at fault but the number of paid miles per incident is actually incredibly close.
如果你在过去几周一直在关注，你可能记得埃隆开始谈论并暗示可能会有一款Cyber SUV面世，这款车可能会解决后排座椅放置三个儿童座椅的问题。他明确表示类似的产品会推出。但当被问及可能的新款家庭用车或紧凑型车时，他表示Cyber Cab是紧凑型车，并将在长期内占据大部分生产。此后，唯一将由人驾驶的车辆将是Roadster，但特斯拉的其余车队将逐步以自动驾驶为主，而且最终特斯拉将会有不同尺寸的这些自动驾驶车辆。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
if you've been following along the past few weeks you'll remember elon started talking and making some comments that there might be a cyber suv coming or something that would solve the problem of having three child seats in the back row and he outright said that something along those lines was coming but when asked about a possible new family vehicle or a compact vehicle he said the cyber cab was the compact the cyber cab will be most of production over the long term the only driving vehicle from here going forward is going to be the roadster but the rest of the fleet over time will be autonomy first and that ultimately tesla will just have different sizes of these autonomous vehicles.
我的理解是，他实际上对带有方向盘的任何类型的网络SUV或更便宜的带有方向盘的紧凑型车辆泼了冷水，这些不同于网络出租车的车型。我本来就认为这些车型在未来一年或两年内推出的可能性不大，但我不明白他为什么会先说那些让人们抱有希望的话，然后又在几周后基本上表示这些不会很快发生。原定于四月份发布的Roadster显然不会成真，现在可能会推迟到五月，但他听起来对这个时间并不十分有信心，因为还需要进行测试。他们还提到现在有了一种新的车辆销售策略，即全自动驾驶（FSD）是产品，而车辆实际上只是交付的工具。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so my understanding was he effectively poured a cold water on any type of cyber suv with a steering wheel or any type of compact vehicle that's not the cyber cab with a steering wheel that's more affordable now I thought those were a long shot anytime in the next year or two anyways but I'm not sure why he would have said those things which will clearly get people's hopes up to then a few weeks later basically saying it's not going to happen at least not anytime soon the roadster debut clearly not going to happen in april now it might happen in may but he didn't sound overly confident due to the testing that's still required and they said they now have this evolved vehicle sales strategy where fsd is the product and the vehicle is actually just the delivery mechanism.
这在表面上看起来很酷，但你们中有没有人真正见过这种做法呢？也许这是他们刚在全球不同地区启动的一项新计划，但我很想多了解这个策略和他们具体会做些什么。因为在我看来，特斯拉 X 官方账号发布相关内容并不算是一种成熟的汽车销售策略。当然，他们可能在世界各地做了一些我不了解的事情，如果是这样，请纠正我。
当我第一次看到能源的毛利率时，我心想，哇，真是不可思议。那是一个交付下滑的季度，但毛利率创下了近40%的新纪录。然而，在电话会议上我们得知，这个数值不太可能持续，因为这是受关税相关的一次性事件推动的。特斯拉仍然预计未来会有更多的竞争、定价压力和来自关税的负面影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
which is cool on the surface but have any of you actually seen that out in practice and sure maybe it's a new initiative that they've just started in different geographies around the world but I'd love to hear a little bit more about that strategy and exactly what they're going to do because in my humble opinion the official tesla x account posting things about it is not an evolved vehicle sales strategy and again they could certainly be doing things around the world I'm not aware of and please correct me if that's the case when I first saw the energy gross margins I was like wow that's incredible it was a down quarter for deliveries yet a brand new record almost 40 percent from a gross margin perspective but on the call we learned that number is likely not sustainable that was driven by a one-off related to tariffs and tesla is still expecting more competition and pricing pressure and negative impacts from tariffs going forward.
因为到目前为止，大多数电池单元仍然来自中国。是的，这种情况正在发生变化，但这需要时间。我对一点非常有信心，那就是资本支出的增长。最近特斯拉已经明确表示，今年剩下的三个季度的自由现金流将会变为负数，这引起了很多关注。但几个月前，当我们了解到特斯拉今年计划花费200亿美元时，我们就说过，自由现金流在今年某个时候可能会转为负值。这实际上是问题的核心所在。特斯拉和埃隆正在传达这样一个信号：我们看到了所有这些机会，它们已经存在，现在是超越以往地增加投入的时候了。我们将同时处理所有这些不同的事情，而实际上，没有其他公司像特斯拉这样在这些不同的行业中同时进行这么多的垂直整合。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
because to date primarily most of those battery cells are still coming from china and yes that's in the process of changing but that's going to take time one point I have strong conviction with is the capex spend it's been getting a lot of attention because tesla just now clarified that the remaining three quarters this year will go negative from a free cash flow perspective but months ago when we learned that tesla was going to spend 20 billion dollars this year we said guess what free cash flow is probably going to go negative at some point this year and this is really the crux of everything this is the biggest signal we have tesla and elon are saying we see all of these opportunities they're here right now it's time to spend more than we've ever spent and we're going to juggle all of these different things at one time and really no other companies are doing as much vertical integration in these different industries as tesla all at the same time.
虽然做出这些决定并以这种方式推进确实会推迟盈利时间，而且要达成这些目标也需要时间，但我对特斯拉从自由现金流的角度变成负值并不在意，因为我知道他们为什么这么做，目前他们的资产负债表上还有充足的现金来支持这一战略。尤其是我们得知SpaceX将承担实际工厂早期阶段的费用，而特斯拉似乎只需为德州工厂的研究工厂投入约30亿美元。不过，这个消息也带来了更多问题而非答案，因为从埃隆·马斯克的语气来看，他似乎也不完全清楚接下来该如何处理，而且他需要获得两个董事会的批准，以确保所有股东的利益都被考虑在内。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
but it's also true that making all of these decisions and doing it this way is going to kick the can down the road for profitability and of course it will take time for all of these things to come to fruition so I couldn't care less about tesla going negative from a free cash flow perspective because I know why they're doing it and they still have plenty of cash on the balance sheet to fund it especially now that we learned spacex is going to be paying for the early part of the actual terra fab and tesla will seemingly only focus on about a three billion dollar outlay for the research fab at gigatexas but once again this brings far more questions than answers because further than that it sounded like elon doesn't even know how they're going to handle it from there and based on elon's tone that he has to get everything approved by both boards to make sure all the shareholders are accounted for
我仍然认为合并最终会发生，只是不会很快发生。关于Optimus（智能机器人项目），有些人对于马斯克提到的可能7月底或8月初开始生产感到鼓舞。然而，马斯克接着解释说，这需要时间，因为特斯拉计划在5月结束Model S和X的生产，然后拆除这些生产线，并用Optimus的生产线取代它们。根据他的解释，通常这种转换可能需要大约六个月的时间，而如果更快的话，那将会是世界级的速度。当然，特斯拉有能力做到这一点，但是否能够实现这样的高速度还有待观察。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I certainly still think things are trending toward an eventual merger just not anytime soon and on optimus I know some are encouraged that elon said the start of production might be late july or into august but then elon went on to explain how it's going to take time for tesla to end model s and x production in may and then tear down those production lines and replace them with the optimus production lines and based on his explanation it sounds like usually that timeline could be in the neighborhood of six months and anything faster than that would be like world-class speed and yes of course tesla's capable of doing that but is expecting that to be the baseline outcome wise
我不太确定，虽然开始生产是一个值得庆祝的里程碑，就像"网络出租车"一样，但这与它们实际被部署到机器人出租车网络、工厂，或进一步向特斯拉以外的客户交付之间有很大的区别。我认为，从市场的角度来看，人们真正期待的是这些。让Optimus在工厂里进行简单任务并不会有太大的影响，也不会立刻开始节省数百万美元。当然，看到它进展会让我们觉得很酷，并了解发生了什么，但从投资的角度看，这才是很多人期待的一个关键因素。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm not so sure and while entering start of production is a milestone worth celebrating just like the cyber cab there's a big difference between that and when they're actually deployed to the robo taxi network or deployed to the factory or further deployed to customers outside of tesla and I think by this point from a market perspective that's really what they're waiting for having optimus in the factory doing menial tasks isn't really going to move the needle that much it's not going to start saving millions of dollars overnight now yes it'll be cool for us to watch it and understand what's going on and to see it making progress but zooming out from an investment perspective which is what many people are waiting for catalysts for
我不太确定生产的开始是否会成为许多人认为的催化剂，所以我一直认为一个更实际的催化剂会是当Optimus在特斯拉之外变得有用的时候，埃隆说希望在明年实现。大家，我知道这个视频可能会让人觉得我很消极或过于悲观，但事实是，我只是分享我真正的感受和预期，希望这样能让其他一些人也能有更脚踏实地的期望，不要总是期待一个重大的突破会比我们现在预期的要晚一点。话说回来，这一切都不会减少我对做这些事情的乐趣，比如再次研究新技术，理解和思考特斯拉正在创造的未来，并在一路上庆祝这些小小的里程碑。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm just not sure that the start of production is going to be the catalyst that many think it will so I've always thought a more tangible catalyst will be when optimus is useful outside of tesla and elon said hopefully sometime next year and guys look I know that this video is going to come off as me being negative or overly pessimistic but the truth is again I'm just sharing how I'm genuinely feeling what I'm actually expecting and doing so with the hopes that some others of you can also have more grounded expectations and not constantly be hoping for this major breakthrough that's going to be a little further away than we're expecting now all of that to say none of this at all takes away from my enjoyment of getting to do this of again researching the new technologies and understanding and thinking about the future that tesla's building and getting to celebrate these little milestones along the way
我只是想说，如果你是从投资的角度来看待这个问题，而不是从粉丝或自我学习的角度，那么我希望你能重新调整一下自己的思路。至于Optimus，我实际上有些感激，因为就在本周早些时候，我说过，Elon，如果你对时间表或产量没有信心，就不用分享它。而他对Optimus的做法正是如此，他基本上说，我无法预测我们今年能生产多少Optimus，因为这是无法预测的。所以，现在我们很明显知道Elon在关注Electrified。Elon，最近怎么样？支持你，兄弟，加油！
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm just saying if you're coming at it from an investment perspective and less so from the perspective of a fan or someone trying to educate themselves then I just hope you're able to recalibrate going from here but when it comes to optimus again I was actually somewhat grateful because I just said what earlier this week elon if you're not confident about your timelines or production numbers then feel free to not share one and that's exactly what he did with optimus he basically said I can't tell you how many optima we're going to make this year because it's impossible to predict so clearly now we know that elon watches electrified so elon how you doing love you brother keep it up
但说真的，我认为我们生活在一个应该庆祝谦逊的时代。如果你不知道答案，没关系，直接承认不知道。我真心希望能这样，而不是随便给出一些达不到的数字，那样只会成为批评特斯拉的借口，或者更糟糕的是，成为特斯拉粉丝失望的催化剂。话说回来，有个好消息：14.3.2版本现在正在推出，大家都说智能召唤功能确实大大改进了。手机连接更好了，响应时间更快了，停车场处理更出色，能更好地避让行人和车辆。这是因为他们在14.3.2版本中统一了智能召唤、全自动驾驶和机器出租车的模型，使得行为更强大、更可靠。Dirty Tesla说汽车现在会立即响应你的按钮按压，即使是在上次操作后立即停止的情况下，而过去则会有很大延迟。AI Driver提到召唤功能的速度限制仍是每小时六英里，但确实有了显著改进。现在它开始正确打信号灯，并在停止前驶出交通流，就像机器出租车一样，激活速度也明显更快，这是个不错的进展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
but seriously I think we live in a time where humility should be celebrated if you don't know it's okay just say you don't know I genuinely would rather have that than him trying to throw out numbers out there that don't get met and then becomes fodder for tesla q or worse a catalyst for disillusionment for tesla fans and just real quick some encouraging news with 14.3.2 now rolling out everybody seems to be saying that actually smart summon is actually materially improved the phone connections better response times better parking lot handling's better navigating pedestrians and cars it's all better and part of that's because they said with 14.3.2 we unified the model between actually smart summon fsd and robotaxi for more capable and reliable behavior and dirty tesla said the car immediately responds to your button press even right after stopping the last session which it would have a big delay on in the past ai driver said it's still limited to six miles an hour but wow summon has definitely improved it's now properly signaling and pulling over out of the flow of traffic before stopping just like robotaxi activation is also noticeably faster nice progress.
在特斯拉的10-Q文件中表示，今年四月公司签订了一项协议，以最多20亿美元收购一家人工智能硬件公司。其中约18亿美元与特定的服务条件和/或业绩里程碑挂钩，这取决于该公司技术的成功部署。这也意味着有可能我们之前谈到的收购正是此事。我们之前提到Anant Navarti重新加入特斯拉担任硅工程主管。他去年12月刚刚离开特斯拉，去一家处于早期阶段的隐秘创业公司，从零开始开发可扩展的AI硬件的硅技术。Navarti在特斯拉工作了八年，担任主管工程师，负责Dojo项目。根据他的LinkedIn信息，他去年12月离开特斯拉，加入了一家专注于可扩展AI硬件的早期创业公司进行硅设计，而现在他在四月又回到特斯拉。因此，有可能是他的公司被收购了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and in the 10q tesla said april of this year the company entered into an agreement to acquire an ai hardware company for up to two billion dollars of which about 1.8 billion is subject to certain service conditions and or performance milestones this dependent on successful deployment of the company's technology and there's at least a chance that this is the acquisition recently we talked about how anant navarti was rejoining tesla to lead silicon engineering this after he just left tesla in december to build silicon from first principles for scalable ai hardware that at an early stage stealth startup navarti spent eight years as the director and principal of engineering at tesla working on dojo and here's his linkedin left tesla december last year worked at this silicon design at an early stage startup specifically for scalable ai hardware and now april he's back at tesla so maybe his company was acquired.
为了结束这个话题，我想再次坦诚地说，我真的不想上传这个视频，因为我内心的一部分仍在试图消化所有这些新的期望以及我们刚刚学习到的东西。但我想明确表达的是，个人而言，从长远来看，我对特斯拉的态度没有任何改变。从公开股票的角度来说，这一切都没有变，我仍在继续购买，而且我对这家公司的热情从未减弱，甚至可以说更加高涨。只是在短期内，在接下来的几周和几个月里，我承认我的期望超出了特斯拉目前的执行能力。当然，我可以在某种程度上把责任推给埃隆，但最终我总是先责备自己，是我自己让期望走在了现实前面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and to close this one out I just want to be honest again I really don't want to upload this video because a big part of me is still trying to process where I'm landing myself based on all of these new expectations and what we just learned but what I want to be abundantly clear is that for me personally not a single thing has changed from a long-term perspective I'm still all in tesla from a public stock perspective none of that is changing I'm still acquiring and I'm still just as excited about the company as I've ever been arguably more so it is just that in the short term in the coming weeks and months I'll admit I let my expectations get further along than where tesla is ready to execute and sure I could point the finger at elon to some degree but ultimately I always point the finger at myself it is my fault for letting my expectations get ahead of me.
我跟随埃隆已经有很长时间了，知道他的话不能全都按表面意思理解。一如既往，数据、环境和技术每天都在不断变化。所以，我觉得我制作这个视频只是希望能给一些可能和我有类似感觉的人带来一种情感宣泄。就像你热爱这家公司，并知道它们从长远来看会取得成功，但在这个过程中，它们确实在一些不必要的地方摔了跤，进展速度比很多人希望的要慢。我们知道这是有原因的，但如果他们在这个过程中能适当降低期望值，这一切都会更加容易。他们显然可以在这些年间与早期用户进行更好的沟通。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I've followed elon long enough to know that not everything he says can be taken at face value and as always the data and the circumstances and what the technology enables are ever evolving daily so I feel like I'm only making this video as a hopefully cathartic experience for a few of you that might be in a similar boat like you love the company and you know they're going to succeed in the long run but on the way there they're certainly tripping in ways they don't need to and they're going slower than a lot of us want them to and we know it's for good reason but this whole process would be easier if they themselves toned down their expectations along the way they clearly could have communicated better especially to the early adopters over the years.
所有这些你们已经知道的事情，但事实确实如此：我认为从来没有一家公司尝试同时涉足如此多新兴前沿技术。这真的很难预料，有人说这件事会发生，我们会在某个日期达到某个数字，这种想法就是极端的自负。埃隆开始意识到这一点，今天我自己也完全意识到了。在这个社交媒体文化中，总是有一种无形的压力，要给出正确的答案，有正确的观点，或者在事情发生之前做出预测。或者，有人会尝试用传统的投资标准来评价特斯拉，这其实是一个全新的实体，他们会试图证明特斯拉的价值应该是多少。但是在现阶段，这在很大程度上是不可能的，因为涉及到太多的新兴行业、太多的变化因素和太多的不确定性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so all of the things you guys already know but it really is just a fact that I don't think there's ever been a company that has been trying to execute with so many different emerging new frontier technologies at the same time and I just think for anybody to come out and say this is going to happen then we're going to hit that number on this date it's just the height of hubris elon is starting to realize it and today I myself am absolutely realizing it and so in this social media culture there's always this unspoken pressure to have the right answer to have the right take or to predict something before it happens or people will take more traditional investing metrics and try to apply them to tesla which is this brand new entity and they'll try to argue see this is why tesla should be valued at x or y but now more than ever to a large degree that's an impossibility it cannot be done there's simply too many moving parts in too many new industries with too much uncertainty.
看起来今年并不是很多人期待的突破之年，也不是我们一直期待的全面发展的那一年。但是，正如我所说，我从未如此确定那个时刻终将到来。虽然我现在无法准确预测具体时间，但如果你能再耐心等待三到五年，让特斯拉正在酝酿的事情最终成熟，我相信会有很多人非常高兴的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It just seems like right now this year is not going to be the year that so many people are waiting for the breakouts the scaling the true opening of the floodgates that we're all anticipating but like I said I've never been more sure that that time is coming I just can't pinpoint it precisely right now but if you can stay patient for another three to five years to let all of this that tesla has cooking finally develop then I'm quite confident there will be a lot of very happy campers.
所以，我再次想说声谢谢，感谢你们在今天的节目中对我的包容，因为我自己也在努力理清思路。最终，我只是想成为一个声音，提醒你们在这个过程中，偶尔对特斯拉感到小失望是正常的。我们生活在一个充满不确定性的时代，而特斯拉正在做的事情是前所未有的，这超出了我们曾经见过的任何事物。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So again I just wanted to say thank you for bearing with me for today's episode as I work to process my own thoughts and ultimately I just want to be a voice that reminds you it's okay to have micro disappointments with tesla along the way it's just the reality that we're living in a timeline with plenty of uncertainty but what tesla is doing is just so unprecedented beyond anything we've ever seen.
我们需要理解时间表会发生变化，甚至最终可能被错过。我的希望是，在最终的结果中，我们能够互相帮助：（1）在需要的时候对自己负责，（2）在需要的时候指出特斯拉的问题。但在这个点上，我应该停止继续参与。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We need to understand that timelines are going to be changed and ultimately missed and my hope is at the end of the day we can all help each other to one take accountability for ourselves where it's warranted and to two point the finger at tesla when it's warranted but at this point it's time for me to cut myself off.
所以如果你感兴趣的话，不要忘记查看3w，所有相关链接都在下面。感谢大家一如既往地支持这个频道，祝你们度过美好的一天，并特别感谢我的所有Patreon支持者。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So don't forget check out 3w if you're interested all the links below thanks as always for supporting the channel hope you all have a wonderful day and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.