Markets Weekly April 25, 2026
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#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
01:33 - Warsh Rate Cut Plan
09:15 - Swap Line Diplomacy
17:32 - Chip Frenzy
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
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www.centralbanking101.com
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https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
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中英文字稿 
你好，朋友们。今天是4月25日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。上周的市场又经历了一次疯狂的波动，看起来股市只会不断上涨，实际上，标准普尔500指数确实达到了新的历史高点。同时，霍尔木兹海峡仍然关闭，油价持续上涨，贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·惠特科夫前往中东讨论和平问题。在这背后，第三艘航母也在移动到位。我觉得这情景似曾相识。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is April 25th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so last week was another crazy week in markets. It seemed like the stock market could only go up, and indeed, we did have new all-time highs in the S&P 500. At the same time, the Straight-Up Hormuz remains closed, oil continues to tick higher, and we have Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcoff off to the Middle East to discuss peace. In the background, a third carrier is moving into position. I feel like I've seen this movie before.
好的，今天我们来讨论三件事。首先，我们聊一聊上周凯文·沃尔什的确认听证会上发生的事情，在那里他透露了自己最新的降息策略。其次，凯文·沃尔什对美联储独立性的看法更加狭隘，这为美元互换额度的使用打开了一些有趣的可能性。目前阿联酋正申请美元互换额度，而贝塞特部长似乎愿意批准，这让我们可能获得一个新的外交工具，至少是美元互换额度一种新的使用方式，正在出现一些有趣的前景。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, so today, let's talk about three things. First off, let's talk about what happened at Kevin Walsh's confirmation hearing last week, where he revealed his newest tactic to get rate cuts. And secondly, and related, Kevin Walsh has a narrower view of Fed independence, and that's opening up some very interesting potential uses of the dollar swap line, whereas the UAE is now requesting a dollar swap line. Secretary Bessett seems to be willing to grant it, and so we may have a new diplomatic tool, at least a new way of using dollar swap lines that's opening up interesting possibilities.
好的，我最后要谈的当然是半导体股票的疯狂涨势。市场似乎认为我们的计算能力还不够，因此所有半导体股票都在飙升。英特尔一天之内就上涨了25%，终于超过了其互联网泡沫时期的最高点。好的，先从凯文·沃尔什谈起。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, the last thing I want to talk about is, of course, the absolute bonkers price action in these semiconductor stocks. The market seems to have come to the conclusion that we don't have enough compute, so all the semiconductor stocks are surging. Intel up 25% in a single day, finally exceeding its dot-com boom highs. All right, starting with Kevin Walsh.
所以，大家，我要说清楚，凯文·沃尔什有着很强的人脉关系。他即将被确认为美联储主席，并且看起来他将能在六月的会议上担任这一职务。现在，他是由国王任命的，只有一项任务，那就是降息。因此，过去几个月里，他一直在向大家宣称我们正经历一场巨大的AI（人工智能）繁荣，这正在提升生产力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, guys, to be totally clear, Kevin Walsh is super well-connected. He is going to be confirmed as Fed chair, and it looks like he's going to be able to sit as Fed chair for the June meeting. Now, he was nominated by the king with one job, that is to cut rates, and so over the past few months, he's been going around telling everyone that we have this tremendous, tremendous AI boom that is boosting productivity.
当然，这具有通缩作用。这意味着美联储可以降息。不过，有一个问题是，当你查看官方的通胀指数时，它们似乎没有下降，实际上还在上升。由于霍尔木兹海峡依然关闭，油价可能继续上涨。如果化肥无法流通，未来几个月可能会出现一些食品短缺，这也意味着食品价格会上涨。因此，如果需要降息，这将是个大问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Of course, that's disinflationary. That means the Fed can cut interest rates. Just one problem with that, when you look at the official inflation indexes, they don't seem to be going lower, and actually, they are ticking higher. As the Straight-Up Hormuz remains closed, oil prices can continue to increase. And if fertilizer is not able to flow, it's possible that we could have some food shortages in the coming months that will suggest higher food prices as well. So that's a big problem if you have to cut rates.
凯文·沃尔什有了一种新的策略来实现他的目标。让我们来听一下他和内华达州参议员之间的对话。我认为目前用来评估通货膨胀的数据是不太完美的。如果我被确认担任美联储主席，那么经济学界和美联储需要做的事情之一就是尝试利用新的理解和数据来源，来更准确地了解经济中的实际通货膨胀率。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So Kevin Walsh has a new tactic to get what he wants. Let's listen to this exchange between him and the senator of Nevada. I think the data that's being used to judge inflation is quite imperfect data. And among the projects that the economics profession, and if I'm confirmed as chairman of the Fed, the Fed needs to do is to try to use our new understanding and new data sources to see what's really the inflation rate in the economy.
我们过去常用核心个人消费支出（PCE）和核心指标，因此会排除食品和能源，因为这样做大致上可以了解经济情况。现在我们不需要再这样粗略估算了。我最关心的是基础通货膨胀率，而不是由于地缘政治变化或牛肉价格变动导致的一次性价格变化。我想知道的是经济中价格的基本普遍变化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We used to use core PCE, core measures, so we'd exclude food and energy because it was sort of a rough swag as to what was going on. We don't have to do a rough swag anymore. What I'm most interested in is what's the underlying inflation rate, not what's the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef, but what's the underlying generalized change in prices in the economy?
总体而言，我认为过去几年的通胀风险和通胀损害情况有所改善。在过去一年中，这种情况已经有所好转。我倾向于使用一些衡量指标，比如去掉极端风险和一次性因素的修正平均值，来观察价格的普遍变化是否对经济产生了二次效应。虽然这些指标还没有达到理想状态，但我认为趋势是相当积极的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And my broad sense is that these inflation risks and the inflation damage the last several years is improving somewhat. It has improved somewhat in the last year. The measures I prefer are looking at things that are called trimmed averages where we take out all of the tail risks, all of the one-off items, and we ask ourselves whether the generalized change in prices is having second-order effects on the economy. Again, they're not where they should be, but I think that the trend is quite favorable.
凯文的意思基本上是这样的：是的，这些通胀指数看起来有点高。但是，你知道，还有另一种计算通货膨胀的方法。如果你把涨价特别多的项目排除在外，通胀看起来就没有那么严重了。我们来看看修正后的平均核心个人消费支出（PCE）指数。这个指数确实高于2%，但只高出一点点，而且趋势也在下降。所以，也许我们可以考虑降息，对吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what Kevin is saying is basically that, yeah, yeah, so these inflation indexes, they look like they're kind of high, but, you know, there's another way to calculate inflation. Now, the thing is, if you take out the prices that are going up a lot, inflation doesn't look so bad. So let's take a look at this trimmed mean PCE. You know, it's above 2%, but just by a little bit, and if you look at it, it's trending lower. So, you know, maybe we could cut rates, right?
这是一种政府常用的策略。从历史上看，比如说，美国的消费者物价指数（CPI）曾经包括抵押贷款利率。但是，当美联储积极提高利率以对抗通货膨胀时，抵押贷款利率也随之上涨。这实际上导致CPI也意外地升高。因此，他们重新定义了CPI，把抵押贷款利率去掉了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And guys, this is a very common tactic by governments. If you look at it historically, for example, once upon a time, the CPI in the U.S. included mortgage rates. But as the Fed raised rates aggressively to combat inflation, that also pushed up mortgage rates. And that actually had the unintended impact of actually pushing CPI higher as well. And so they redefined CPI and took out mortgage rates.
所以，再次强调一下，如果你想做某件事情并且官方指标也配合，重新定义一下是世界各国政府一直以来常用的一种策略。现在，凯文还提出了另一个想法。他提到了"十亿价格项目"（Billion Price Project），可能是用另一种方式收集通胀数据。对于不熟悉的人来说，"十亿价格项目"是在大金融危机后非常流行的一个项目。它基本上是由麻省理工学院发起，通过网络爬取各种价格数据，以此提供一种替代的通胀衡量方法。在大金融危机后，美联储进行了量化宽松政策，印了大量的钱。因此，当时很多人，尤其是货币主义者，认为印那么多钱会导致通胀上升。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, again, if you want to do something and the official indexes are cooperating, redefining it is a strategy that governments all around the world and throughout time have always used. Now, Kevin also has floated another idea. He, you know, mumbled something about the Billion Price Project, maybe collecting inflation data in a different way. So for those of you who don't know, the Billion Price Project was something that was very popular after the Great Financial Crisis. It is basically a project started out in MIT to scrape the internet for all sorts of prices to come up with an alternative measure of inflation. After the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed was doing QE, printing massive amounts of money. And so at that time, a lot of people, I would say called them monetarists, had a view of the world where if you printed a lot of money, inflation would go higher.
那些人当时完全慌了。金价在不断上涨。他们告诉大家，通货膨胀甚至是恶性通货膨胀即将来临。然而，官方的通胀指数并没有显示出这种情况。事实上，在接下来的十年里，大多数时间通胀率都低于2%。所以，为了证明他们的观点，他们拼命寻找替代的通胀衡量标准。当时有一个叫“十亿价格项目”的东西，似乎显示出较高的通胀率。不过，回过头来看，这也是不准确的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So those people were totally freaking out. Gold prices were going higher. And they were telling everyone that, you know, inflation or even hyperinflation was right around the corner. The problem was the official inflation indexes just didn't show it. And indeed, for the next 10 years, inflation was below 2% for most of the time. So in order to justify their, I guess, their philosophical beliefs, they were desperately looking for alternative measures of inflation. And at that time, it was something like the Billion Price Project, which seemed to show a higher rate of inflation, which ultimately, of course, as we're looking back, was also not true.
所以，不管怎样，凯文的建议其实是，说不定我们可以用另一种方式收集通胀数据。我猜如果他这样做，他可以找到一种方法，使得收集到的通胀数据看起来比官方的PCE数据更低。所以，他面临着降低利率的艰巨任务，因此他在寻找可以实现的方法。现在，有些人可能会说这只是一个委员会，等等。但归根结底，委员会里的这些人实际上并没有什么政治权力。我怀疑他们可能会受到一定压力。我认为降低利率的真正限制是公众的意见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in any case, what Kevin is also suggesting is that, hey, maybe we could collect inflation data in another way. And I suspect that if he were to do it that way, he could find a way to collect inflation data such that it looked lower than the official PCE data. So again, this guy has the heavy task of trying to cut rates. And so he's finding ways to do so. Now, some of you may say that this is a committee, blah, blah, blah. But at the end of the day, these people on the committee, they don't really have any political power. And I suspect that they can be squeezed. I think the real constraint to cutting rates is the public.
现在，如果我们观察现货石油价格，它们继续上涨。如果你看看例如航空燃油，它也在持续上涨。因此，除非霍尔木兹海峡的问题得到解决，否则通货膨胀会持续上升。不管你对美联储的政策有多么倾向宽松，也不管你承受多大的政治压力，如果公众感受到通胀并越来越担忧，那么你就不能降息。所以，我认为这将是美联储面临的真正限制，即便是凯文·沃什领导的美联储也不例外。记住，这里有一种可能，那就是霍尔木兹海峡的问题没有解决，通货膨胀进一步加剧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, if we look at spot oil prices, they continue to move higher. If you look at, say, jet fuel, it continues to move higher. So unless the straight-off Hormuz thing is resolved, inflation is going to continue to rise. And no matter how dovish or fed you are, no matter how much political pressure you have, you won't be able to cut rates if the public is feeling inflation and become increasingly worried about it. So I think that's going to be the real constraint for the Fed, even a Kevin Walsh Fed. Remember, there is a path here where the short-off Hormuz is not resolved. Inflation takes higher.
也许美联储不得不加息。我认为这对金融资产来说会是非常糟糕的情况，尤其是因为它们的价格似乎已经很高了。顺便说一句，在凯文·沃尔什的听证会上，我发现了另一个有趣的对话。请回答我的问题。我问道：您有1亿美元的未披露资产。我想问的是，其中是否有投资于与特朗普总统或其家族有关联的公司，协助洗钱的公司，中国控制的公司，或由杰弗里·爱泼斯坦设立的融资工具？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And maybe the Fed has to hike rates. And that would be a situation I think would be very bad for financial assets, especially since they seem to be so elevated. As an aside, another interesting exchange that I found during the Kevin Walsh hearing is this one. Would you answer my question, please? I ask. You have $100 million in undisclosed assets. And what I'm asking is, are any of those with this outfit that invests in companies affiliated with President Trump or his family, companies that have facilitated money laundering, Chinese-controlled companies, or financing vehicles set out by Jeffrey Epstein?
这是一个是或否的问题。参议员，我曾与政府道德办公室的道德官员不懈合作。是的，而您并没有披露1亿美元的资产。而且我已同意，参议员，出售我所有的金融资产，包括杜肯资产。您是否拒绝告诉我们，您是否有投资，例如用于支持杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的项目？您是这个意思吗？您就是不愿告诉我们吗？参议员，我想说的是，如果我获得确认，在就职并签署宣誓书之前，您提到的那些巨额资产将会被出售。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's a yes or no question. Senator, I have worked tirelessly with the ethics officials at the Office of Government Ethics. Yes, and you have not revealed $100 million in assets. And have agreed, Senator, to sell all of my financial assets, including the Duquesne assets. Are you refusing to tell us if you have investments, for example, in vehicles set up to advance Jeffrey Epstein? Is that what you're telling us? You just won't tell us? Senator, what I'm telling you is that those assets that you represent as juggernaut will be sold if I'm confirmed before I take office and sign the oath of office.
现在，凯文再次被问及他可能会投资于特朗普家族或与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦有关系。我认为一个标准的答案当然是直接说“不”，但他无法这么说，这让我觉得很有趣。好的，我们想讨论的第二个话题是美联储的独立性。许多人担心凯文·沃尔什可能会缺乏独立性，可能会成为总统的“傀儡”。因此，我认为每个人，包括总统，都承认美联储的独立性是一个秘密原则，他们不能公开表示不相信美联储的独立性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And now, again, Kevin has asked about his ties to maybe investing in the Trump family or maybe with Jeffrey Epstein. I would think the standard answer to that is, of course, just to say no, but he can't say that, which I thought was very interesting. All right, the second topic we want to talk about is, of course, Fed independence. So everyone is concerned that, well, not everyone, a lot of people are concerned that Kevin Walsh may not be independent. He may be the president's, quote-unquote, sock puppet. And so I think everyone, including the president, acknowledges that Fed independence is a secret counsel, that they cannot just openly say that we don't believe in an independent Fed.
看起来凯文·沃尔什正在重新定义“独立性”的含义，实际上这意味着美联储的独立性正在减弱，尽管其某些部分仍被称为“独立”。在他的开场陈述中，他明确表示美联储在利率政策方面拥有独立性，所以无论是加息还是降息，都是由美联储决定而不是总统。然而，他又谈到美联储的其他职能，比如银行监管，这实际上即便是民主党政府也承认是属于白宫的职能。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what seems to be happening is that Kevin Walsh is redefining what independence means such that, in effect, the Fed is becoming less independent, although parts of it remain, quote-unquote, independent. So in his opening statement, he openly asserts that the Fed has independence over interest rate policy. So whether or not the Fed hikes or lowers rates, it's up to the Fed and not to the president. But then he talks about the other things the Fed does. You know, maybe, for example, banking regulation, which is actually, even by Democratic administrations, acknowledged to belong to the White House.
当有新总统上任时，总统会提名一位新的监督副主席。这已经发生了，对吧？现在，银行监管方面正进行大规模的放松管制。但是，他也谈到了国际金融，这涉及到外汇互换额度。从历史上看，外汇互换额度基本上是由美联储单独操作的，只在极端紧急情况下才使用。例如，在金融危机期间，我们进行了大规模的外汇互换，以支持全球美元系统，2020年时也是如此。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So when you have a new president, that president nominates a new vice chair of supervision. So that's already happened, right? And there's a huge deregulation effort for banking regulation. But he also talks about international finance, and that has to do with the FX swap lines. So historically speaking, the FX swap lines is something that the Fed did basically itself, and it only came out in times of extreme emergency. So, for example, during the great financial crises, we had huge FX swap lines to try to support the global dollar system, and again, in 2020.
FX掉期额度有着更悠久的历史。在过去，它们被用来管理金本位制度。然而，在现代，尤其是最近，它们实际上更多用于支撑全球美元体系。我们与一些重要的伙伴和地区，比如欧元区、日本、加拿大等，建立了固定的掉期额度。在经济压力时期，我们也对一些较不紧密但仍然友好的国家开放掉期额度，比如韩国。这样做是为了应对全球金融市场的波动，确保美元流动性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, to be clear, the FX swap lines have a longer history. They were used as a way to manage the gold standard at the time. But in the modern era, they really came into being, oh, actually, more actively used as a way to backstop the global dollar system. Now, there, we have standing swap lines with our best friends, say, Euroland, say, Japan, Canada, and so forth. But in times of stress, we also opened up swap lines to people who are still good friends, but not as close. So you think like Korea, for example.
现在看来，这似乎是——当然，这基本上是美联储用来维持金融稳定的工具。然而，如果凯文·沃尔什说这是一个国际金融问题，并且不是美联储完全能控制的，这就意味着白宫可能会为了国家利益向他们认为合适的对象提供掉期额度，给予美联储的掉期额度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, it seems like the – but, of course, this is something that the Fed basically used for financial stability. Now, if Kevin Walsh is saying that, you know, this is an international finance thing and it's not something the Fed has full control over, that means that the White House would be able to give swap lines, give Fed swap lines to whoever they think best in the nation's interests.
现在，我想是去年的时候，美国财政部给了阿根廷一个掉期额度来帮助他们渡过难关，这个行动非常成功。那不是美联储的掉期额度，而是用财政部自己的资金实现的。这个资金来源叫做外汇稳定基金。基金规模不大，大部分是像国际货币基金组织储备这样的非流动性资产。我想基金里大约有200到300亿美元的现金，这并不算多。但是如果财政部能提供美联储的掉期额度，那基本上就相当于拥有无限的现金。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, in – I guess last year, we had the Treasury give swap lines to Argentina to bail them out, and that was very successful. That wasn't a Fed swap line. That was used using the Treasury's own cash. There's something called the Exchange Stabilization Fund. It's not very large. Most of it is illiquid stuff like IMF reserves there. It does have, I believe, $20 or $30 billion, just not a lot of cash. But if the Treasury were able to instead offer Fed swap lines, well, that's basically an infinite amount of cash.
目前，有传言称阿联酋正在请求美联储提供交换额度。财政部长贝桑在平台X上发文，基本上表示支持向阿联酋提供交换额度。虽然鲍威尔不是阿联酋支持的官员，但如果凯文·沃尔什在场，而贝桑部长给他打电话，我看不出美联储有什么理由不向阿联酋提供交换额度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, at the moment, rumors suggest that the UAE is actually asking for a Fed swap line, and you have Treasury Secretary Besant posting on X, basically supporting the giving of swap lines to the UAE. Now, Powell is not their guy, but if you have Kevin Walsh there and Secretary Besant gives him a call, I see no reason why the Fed wouldn't be able to offer the UAE a swap line.
现在，这是一个有趣的情况，因为阿联酋实际上拥有很多美元。Brad Setzer 的这项研究显示，在过去的几十年里，海湾国家积累了大量的美元。当然，目前他们的收入没有之前那么多，而且开支有所增加。但是，累计来看，在过去的几十年里，他们已经积累了大约几万亿美元的资产。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, this is an interesting case because the UAE actually has a lot of dollars. So, this good work from Brad Setzer shows that over the past, you know, many decades, the Gulf countries have accumulated a lot of dollars. Of course, at the moment, they're not making as much money and they're spending more. But cumulatively, over the past few decades, they've accumulated, say, a few trillion dollars' worth of assets.
其中一部分是流动性较高的资产，比如国债。一部分是股票。还有一部分是流动性较低的资产，比如私募股权等。不过，他们确实拥有大量的美元。此外，值得注意的是，他们的货币与美元挂钩。所以，为什么他们还需要美元互换额度是一个有趣的问题。他们为什么不直接动用他们的美元储备呢？他们有那么多美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Some of that is in liquid stuff like Treasury. Some of it is in equity. Some of it is in less liquid stuff like private equity and so forth. But they have a lot of dollars. And also, it's worth noting that they have their currencies pegged to the dollar. So, it's an interesting question why they would want a dollar swap line. Why can't they just liquidate their dollar reserves? They have so many.
因此，向他们提供美元互换额度的一个原因可能仅仅是为了增加信心。我认为这是最温和的理解。这些国家将他们的货币与美元挂钩，而你不希望这种挂钩关系破裂。为了对这种挂钩关系保持无限信心，可以说美联储在支持他们。这种方式基本上可以消除任何对挂钩关系破裂的担忧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, one reason to give them a dollar swap line could be just as an extra boost of confidence. I think that's the most benign reading. So, these guys, they have their currency pegged to the dollar. You don't want that peg to break. One way to have unlimited confidence in that peg is to say that the Fed is supporting them. So, that's one thing that would basically tamp down on any fears of a breaking of the peg.
其次，他们可以通过变现手中的美元资产来支持这个汇率锚定。如果他们这样做，可能会对美国资产价格产生一些影响。我认为影响不会很大。但可能会对国债收益率产生上行压力，对股票价格产生下行压力，这取决于他们出售什么。因此，美国政府可能想要避免对资产价格的任何干扰。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Secondly, one way they could support the peg themselves is they have to liquidate their dollar assets. Now, if they were to do that, that would have some impact on U.S. asset prices. I don't think it would be huge. But you probably would see some upward pressure on treasury yields, maybe downward pressure on stocks, depending on what they sell. And so, it could be that the administration would like to avoid any disturbances to asset prices.
我们知道它们对此非常敏感。所以，美元互换额度可能对此有帮助。但这件事特别有趣的另一个原因是，互换额度基本上是直接接入“印钞机”。假设，美国说，嘿，阿拉伯酋长先生，能否请您支持在美国的投资？比如可能是发电厂、半导体公司、特朗普新开的无人机公司，甚至是特朗普币，对吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we know they are sensitive to that. So, a dollar swap line could be helpful for that. But another reason that this is super interesting is that a swap line is basically direct access to the money printer. Now, let's say, hypothetically, of course, that the U.S. says, Hey, Mr. Arab Sheik, can you please support investments in the U.S.? You know, it could be power plants, it could be, you know, semiconductor companies, it could be, you know, the new drone company by the Trumps, it could be the Trump coins, right?
你打算如何筹集资金呢？嘿，为什么不从我们的美元互换额度中借款呢？从某种意义上讲，这可能是一种方式，让财政部或白宫通过这些第三方和互换额度，用无限资金来进行财政政策。现在，这在像欧盟或日本这样的国家是行不通的，因为这些国家是民主和透明的，所以很难通过这种方式操作。但是，如果合作方是像海湾国家这样不透明、基本上类似独裁政权的国家，而且你与那里的统治者关系友好，那么这种做法肯定能实现，也可以隐藏起来不被发现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And how are you going to finance that? So, hey, why don't you just borrow from our dollar swap lines? So, in a sense, it could be a way for Treasury or the White House to conduct fiscal policy with unlimited money by laundering it through these third parties, through swap lines. Now, this is something that I wouldn't be able to do with a country like the European Union, for example, right? Or Japan, these countries are, you know, democratic, and they are transparent, and so forth. So, it's difficult to pull something like this off. But if you have counterparties like the Gulf countries, where it's opaque, it's basically, you know, something like a dictatorship, and you're good friends with the ruler there, then this is something that you could definitely pull off, and it would be something you could hide.
从历史上看，美联储会公开他们的互换额度，不过，你知道，他们也可能改变这一做法。因此，这可能会通过这些第三方国家，实际上给予白宫几乎无限的资金。现在，我不是说这就是他们将如何使用，但这是一个可能性。实际上，这取决于我猜测的制度安排等等。另外，一个我必须展示的有趣片段是参议员沃伦问凯文·沃尔什她最喜欢的问题，她用它来测试美联储的独立性。好了，先从简单的开始，沃尔什先生，唐纳德·特朗普在2020年的选举中输了吗？若我被确认，我们将努力将政治排除在美联储之外。我只是问一个事实性问题。我需要了解你的独立性和勇气。参议员，我相信这个机构在多年前已经认证了那次选举。那不是我在问的问题。我问的是，特朗普在2020年输了吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The Fed, historically speaking, discloses their swap lines outstanding, but, you know, that's something they could change as well. So, it does potentially give the White House basically unlimited money through these third-party countries. Now, I'm not saying this is how it's going to be used, but it's a possibility here. It really just depends on, I guess, I guess the institutional arrangements and so forth. Oh, a bonus segment I have to show is that Senator Warren asked Kevin Walsh her favorite question, her favorite test of Fed independence. Here it is. Start easy. Mr. Walsh, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election? We try to keep politics, if I'm confirmed, out of the Federal Reserve. I'm just asking you a factual question. I need to know, I need to measure your independence and your courage. Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many years ago. That's not the question I'm asking. I'm asking, did Donald Trump lose in 2020?
在2020年，我建议美联储制造了一个重大的通货膨胀问题，而你认证了选举结果。基本上是这样。所以，她经常问很多特朗普提名的人这个问题，而他们常常回答得很挣扎。有点搞笑的是，凯文·沃尔什就像，哦，2020年大选。你说什么？ 好的。我们最后要谈论的是半导体股票的绝对繁荣。就在过去的一周，或者实际上是过去几周，我们看到新的AI模型发布。新的ChatGPT、新的Cloud，甚至还有新的DeepSeq。所有这些模型的发布都显示出人工智能模型的显著提升。坦率地说，现在看来它们更像是一种商品化的产品。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm suggesting you in 2020, the Fed made a huge inflation problem, and you certified the election. Basically. So, she asks a lot of Trump nominees this question, and they all kind of struggle. It's kind of funny. Kevin Walsh is like, oh, 2020 election. What did you say? All right. So, the last thing that we want to talk about is the absolute boom in semiconductor stocks. So, this past week, we've had, well, actually, the past few weeks, we have new AI models released. New ChatGPT, new Cloud, and even a new DeepSeq. All these models being released are showing good improvements in the AI models. And, honestly, it seems to be more of a commoditized product now.
但这也显示出对计算能力的需求在不断增加。每个人都想要更多的计算能力，更多的GPU，甚至更多的CPU。这导致了一场狂热，大家都在争相哄抬半导体股票的价格。AMD的股价一路飙升。正如我们之前提到的，英特尔的股票也在冲高。一切看起来都像是一场抢购风潮。这似乎是推动纳斯达克指数上升的主要力量之一。现在，当我看到这一切时，明显是一种牛市顶端的热潮。是的，半导体股票会赚很多钱。但这是否意味着价格就一定要飙升，这是另一个完全不同的话题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But what it's also showing is that there is just increased in insatiable demand for compute. So, everyone wants more compute, more GPUs, and even more CPUs. And that is leading to a frenzy where everyone is bidding up these semiconductor stocks. AMD going to the moon. Intel, as we mentioned earlier, just absolutely surging everything. So, there seems to be this real rush. And that seems to be a big force that's driving the NASDAQ higher. Now, when I look at this, it obviously looks like some kind of bull off top, some kind of frenzy. Yes, the semiconductor stocks are going to make a lot of money. Whether or not that means the prices have to go to the moon, well, that's another discussion entirely.
现在的人工智能生态系统看起来非常有趣，因为所有的大公司，尤其是那些购买计算能力的公司，主要是通过其非常盈利的业务来为这些计算能力提供资金，并且还通过裁员来节省成本。例如，Meta和微软都在裁员，将节省下来的资金用于购买更多的GPU，努力搭建它们的AI计算结构。但问题在于，即使AI技术非常出色，这些购买芯片和计算能力的公司是否能够真正从中获利仍然不明确。虽然我经常使用AI，但显然我并没有花太多钱。我为云服务支付了100美元，但我没有为使用Gemini支付任何费用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The AI ecosystem now is looking super interesting in that all the big, so all the hyperscalers, the guys who buy compute, are basically actually financing that compute out of their tremendous profitable businesses. And also by trying to save on employees. So, you have Meta and you have Microsoft basically firing people and taking that money to buy more GPUs and trying to build out their AI compute structure. But the thing is that even though AI is super great, it's not really clear whether or not these guys who buy the chips, who buy the compute, will actually be able to monetize their investments. So, I use AI a lot, but obviously I'm not paying that much money. I pay $100 for Cloud. I don't pay anything for Gemini. And I use it.
因此，我正在从中获益。而这些好处基本上是由这些公司庞大的现金流资助的。所以，并不完全清楚他们是否能够收回他们的投资。这样对芯片公司来说还是好事，因为他们仍然在购买芯片。但是，最终你可以想象一种情况，这些公司可能会更加注重利润。因此，他们实际上必须根据至少他们的成本来收取GPU使用费。问题是，一旦他们开始对计算使用收费，计算需求是否依然如故？从逻辑上讲，如果他们开始收取更高的费用，或者至少不亏损地计算费用，人们使用计算的频率就会减少。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, I'm deriving benefits from that. And it's basically benefits that are subsidized by the huge cash flows of these companies. So, it's not really clear if they were ever able to recoup their investments. That's still good for the chip companies because they're still buying chips. But eventually, you could think of a scenario where these guys become more profit-minded. And so, they actually have to charge for usage of the GPUs according, at least at their costs. And the question is, once they start charging for the use of compute, will there still be the same amount of demand for compute? And logically speaking, if they start charging more, or at least so that they don't make a loss on the compute, people are going to use it less.
这意味着对GPU和相关产品的需求可能会减少。更不用说，像谷歌这类公司都在开发自己的计算设备。最终，至少对于纯粹芯片公司来说，他们的产品需求可能会减少。这是值得考虑的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that suggests less demand for the GPUs and all that stuff. Not to mention, of course, everyone is developing their own computes, Google and so forth. So, eventually, you could have, at least for the pure chip companies, less demand for their products. So, that's something to think about.
我觉得有趣的是，中国的人工智能模型与美国的非常不同。即使是最新的美国Deep Seek模型也将是开源的。因此，这些模型看起来会被商品化，任何人都很难通过模型赚钱。随着竞争的加剧，最终模型层似乎不会赚到太多钱。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And also, you know, I think it's really interesting that the Chinese model for AI is very different from the U.S. Deep Seek, even the newest one, is going to be open source. So, the models, they look like they're going to be commoditized. So, it's going to be very difficult for anyone to make money off the model. So, it's looking increasingly like that at the end of the day, because of competition, the model layer is just not going to make that much money.
这些应用程序当然也会面临激烈的竞争。我不确定它们是否能够赚钱。真正赚大钱的其实是芯片制造商。因此，市场正确地认识到了这一点。但这种情况是否会持续下去，以及是否能够支持高价，这又是另一回事了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The apps, of course, they're going to be fiercely competitive as well. I'm not sure they're going to make money. It's really the chip makers that are making tremendous amounts of money. So, the market is correct in identifying that. Whether or not that persists, whether or not it justifies high prices is another thing altogether.
所以，这种情况非常活跃，很像互联网泡沫，我们拭目以待历史重演。历史上来看，这类情况总是最后以某种方式崩溃告终。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, very bubbly, very dot-com-like, and we'll see what plays out. Again, historically speaking, something like this always, always ends in some kind of implosion.
本周有一个美联储会议，市场正在定价并有所波动。我预期这将是一个非常无聊的会议。我唯一关注的就是鲍威尔主席是否会更明确地告诉我们，在他任期结束后，是否会继续留在美联储。目前看来他可能会继续留任，但也有可能他会在今年晚些时候辞职，比如说在共和党失去参议院控制权的时候。如果出现那种情况，那个职位可能就会空缺。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, this week is a Fed meeting. Market is in pricing and in move. I expect it to be a very boring meeting. The only thing that I'm looking out for is for Chair Powell to really just kind of maybe more concretely tell us whether or not he's going to stay at the Fed after his chairmanship ends. It's looking like he is going to do so, and there is some possibility that he just stays through, maybe resigns later on in the year, say maybe when the Republicans lose the Senate, if they lose the Senate, and then that could just be an empty seat.
谁知道呢？不过，看起来特朗普总统要接管美联储会更加困难。除非有什么变化，比如主席鲍威尔离职，而且是正好在能让特朗普提名的人选被批准之前离职。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Who knows? But it looks like it's going to be more difficult for President Trump to take over the Fed, unless, of course, something changes and Chair Powell leaves and then leaves in time for a Trump appointee to be confirmed.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听。这个星期再和大家交流。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Talk to you guys this week.