Markets Weekly May 2, 2026
发布时间 来源
Episode 设置
摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:51 - GDP and Tech Earnings
06:09 - (Mini) Global Hiking Cycle
12:50 - Japanese Intervention
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
你好，我的朋友们。今天是5月2日，这里是《市场周报》。上周，市场表现依旧强劲，标普500指数创下历史新高。今天我们来谈论三个主题。首先，我们讨论一下上周发布的经济数据，其中包括极其重要的GDP数据和MAG7的公司财报，这些都对股市有着重大影响。其次，我们来谈谈全球似乎正处于小幅加息周期的边缘，这主要是由于能源价格的上涨。最后，我们聊聊上周在日本发生的一个非常有趣的事件。也就是说，日本对日元进行了干预，此外，日本政府甚至表示他们可能会在原油市场进行干预。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is May 2nd, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so last week, another great week in the markets, S&P 500 making new all-time highs. Today, let's talk about three things. First off, let's talk about the economic data we got last week, which was, of course, GDP data, and, of course, MAG7 earnings, which are tremendously important when it comes to the stock market. Secondly, let's talk about how globally we seem to be on the cusp of a mini rate hiking cycle, largely, of course, due to rising energy prices. And lastly, let's talk about the very interesting thing that happened in Japan last week. That is to say, there was an intervention in the yen, and not just that, the Japanese government actually suggested that they were open to intervening into the crude oil market.
好的，先从经济数据说起。上周，我们得到了 GDP 数据，虽然比预期稍弱，但依然保持了 2% 的相当不错水平。记得上一季度，由于政府停摆，年增长率只有 0.5%。所以这次的 2% 算是回归正常水平，尽管很多人预计会有更大的反弹。但需要注意的是，正如人口增长缓慢或停滞影响劳动力市场一样，它也会影响 GDP。这意味着，由于人口增长放缓，我们必须适应较低的 GDP 增长率，因为进入劳动力市场的人更少了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, starting with the economic data. So last week, we got GDP data, and it was a little bit weaker than expected, but still a very decent 2%. Now, recall, last quarter, it was an annual rate of 0.5%, largely due to the government shutdown. So the 2% is kind of a return to norm, although I think many expected a larger bounce back. One thing to note, though, is that just like the low growth in population or no growth in population is impacting labor market standards, so it is for GDP, such that because we have less population growth, we're going to have to be accustomed to a lower GDP growth rate, simply because there are fewer people entering the labor force.
现在，当人们查看GDP时，他们也会关注被认为更核心的指标，比如私人销售、私人最终销售、国内消费者等，这些数据表现也相当不错。所以总体来说，GDP数据还是不错的。不过需要注意的是，很多GDP的增长来自于人工智能领域。具体来看，GDP增长的一个重要组成部分是商业投资，这主要是因为大量数据中心的建设。如果没有这些数据中心的发展，GDP数字会明显不如现在。上周，我们还看到了个人消费通胀率是3.5%，显然比2%要高得多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, when people look at GDP, they also look at what's considered to be more of a core measure, so private sales, private final sales, domestic consumers, and that was also a pretty solid number. So overall, GDP data was totally fine. Also note, though, that a lot of the GDP growth is in AI stuff. So looking into the details, a big component of GDP growth was business investments, and that's just all the data centers that are going up. So absent the big data center build out, the GDP number would be noticeably worse. Last week, we also got that PC inflation, and it's 3.5%, obviously much higher than 2%.
如果你查看一个时间序列，它显然正越来越远离2%。如果石油冲击持续，它将显著升高。因此，我们现在处于这样一个环境：我们的GDP增长情况还不错，主要是由于人工智能的发展，但同时通货膨胀率也更高。这将影响货币政策的制定。不过，上周对市场影响最大的事件当然是MAG7的财报，总体来说表现不一。比如，Meta的表现让市场非常失望，而Google则非常受市场欢迎，其股价大涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if you look at a time series, it's definitely moving farther and farther away from 2%. And should the oil shock continue, it will move notably higher. So we are in a place where we have okay GDP growth, largely due to AI, but also inflation that's higher. So that's going to impact monetary policy. Now, the big market-moving event last week, though, of course, were MAG7 earnings, which overall were pretty mixed. You have Meta, that was deeply disappointing to the market, and you had Google, which the market loved, and you saw their short prices surge.
现在，当你想到股票时，我听到的一个乐观观点主要是因为盈利在增长。这实际上是对的。根据迄今为止的报告，盈利的增长速度比多年来都要高。因此，论点是，随着盈利的增长，股票价格理应也会上涨。这完全合理。但是，还有另一种看法，一些持悲观态度的人会说，自由现金流非常低。这意味着，尽管公司赚了很多钱，但他们基本上把所有的钱都投入到了数据中心这类的东西上。毕竟，大部分盈利确实都来自于大型科技公司。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, when you think about stocks, a big bull case that I hear is basically that earnings are growing. And that's actually true. According to reports so far, earnings are growing much higher than they've been in many years. And so the argument is that as earnings grow, obviously, stock prices should rise as well. Totally reasonable. But another way to look at this, and this is what some bears would say, is that free cash flow is very low. What that means is that although companies are making a lot of money, they're taking all that money and basically buying data center stuff. Since, of course, most of the earnings are with the big tech companies anyway.
总的来说，资金不再像以前那样通过股票回购流向股东。相反，这些资金被投入到数据中心上。如果这些数据中心非常成功，可能会带来很高的回报，从而提升股东的价值。但如果最终这些数据中心在人工智能竞争中无法赚取很多利润，那这些钱可能就浪费掉了。不过需要注意的是，很多支出的增加其实是由于通货膨胀。举个例子，DDR5内存的价格在过去几年里已经翻了四倍。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So at the end of the day, the money is not really trickling to the shareholders in the form of buybacks like it used to. But it's all going on to be spent on data centers, which, if they turn out to be very successful, could produce a very high rate of return and thus accrue to shareholder value. Or if it ends up being something that is, you know, not able to generate lots of money, maybe because of competition in AI models and so forth, then it's basically going to be a lot of money that's wasted. One thing to note, though, is that a lot of the spending is simply just inflation. If you look at RAM prices, for example, looking at DDR5, RAM prices for DDR5 have quadrupled over the past couple of years.
这显然是由于人工智能的热潮，导致内存芯片的需求巨大，同时供应也受到限制。因此，虽然大型云服务提供商（hyperscalers）正在不断增加投入，但很多都是因为一切变得更贵了，这对于像英伟达这样的半导体公司是非常有利的。这就是为什么SOX指数大幅上涨的原因。但是需要注意的是，从实际商品和服务的角度来看，你所购买的东西可能并没有真正增加。因此，如果你将所有的可支配现金都投入到人工智能上，你将面临一些直接的威胁。其中之一便是，人工智能投资可能并不像你希望的那样盈利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So this is obviously due to the AI boom, tremendous demand for memory chips and also constraints in supply. So although the hyperscalers are spending more and more money, a lot of it is just because everything is getting more expensive, which is very good for the semiconductor companies like NVIDIA. And that is why you see the SOX index absolutely surging. But it is something to keep in mind that in terms of real goods and services, what you're purchasing is maybe not even increasing. So now if you're spending all that free cash flow on AI, you have a couple direct threats. One is that, of course, AI investments don't actually be as profitable as you hope.
其次，公司并没有进行那么多的股票回购。在过去的一周中，有一个非常有趣的采访，是保罗·都铎·琼斯发表的。采访其实是在二月份录制的，但琼斯持有一种看跌的观点，看起来对市场持悲观态度。他的理论是，很多股票供应正在进入市场，比如说一些归属于员工的股份终于解禁了，所以人们可以出售这些股份。也可能是一些大型IPO即将上市，比如像Anthropi、OpenAI或SpaceX这样的公司。如果回想一下网络热潮时期，当时网络热潮有所退潮的原因之一正是IPO数量大幅增加。根据供需的基本原理，出售的股票数量越多，股价就越低。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But secondly, you don't have as much share buybacks. Now, over the past week, there was a very interesting interview from Paul Tudor Jones. It was actually recorded in February, but he actually had a bear case, and he seemed to be bearish on the market. And his thesis was that you have a lot of equity supply coming online. So that could be in the form of vesting shares finally unlocked so people can sell them. It could also be, let's say, the big IPOs coming up, say, from Anthropi or OpenAI or SpaceX or something like that. So if you think back to the dot-com boom, one of the reasons why the dot-com boom kind of faltered was that there was a tremendous increase in IPOs. Again, basic supply and demand, more share to be sold, lower share prices.
所以，以前这些MAG7公司的老板会把股票给员工，然后员工把股票卖掉，但由于大量的股票回购，这些变动基本上被中和掉了，因为所有的钱都被用在了人工智能上。不仅如此，Meta还从债务市场借入了大量资金来支持人工智能热潮。这带来了供需不平衡的问题，不过我们拭目以待。当然，我确实看到纳斯达克指数似乎一直在创历史新高。好的，我们接下来要讨论的第二个话题是，我们似乎正处于全球加息周期的边缘。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in the past, when you had these MAG7 guys give share to their employees and their employees sell them, they were basically neutralized by tremendous amounts of share buybacks because all the money is being sent on AI. And not just that, Meta also is borrowing tremendous amounts of money from the debt markets to fund the AI boom. There is more of a supply and demand mismatch, but we'll see what's happening. Of course, I do see that the Nasdaq is making all-time highs, seemingly all the time. All right. The second thing we all want to talk about is that we seem to be on the cusp of a global rate hiking cycle.
现在，接着讨论最后一点，当这些市场走势逆转时，并不只是单一因素起作用。历史上看，其中一个必要条件是利率上升。你在2022年以及互联网泡沫时期和1920年代等例子中都能看到这种情况。所以如果你观察市场定价，看看欧元区、英国和日本的五年期收益率，你会发现自伊朗战争开始以来，这些国家的五年期利率都上涨了。这表明市场预期这些国家会加息。在美国的情况则有些不同。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, just following up on the last point, when these market moves reverse, it's not, you know, it's many things happen. But one of the necessary conditions, historically speaking, is higher interest rates. You see all that, of course, in 2022 and in the dot-com and in the 1920s and so forth. So if you look at market pricing, looking at the five-year yield in Euroland, in the UK, in Japan, you can see that since the start of the war in Iran, rates on the five-year segment have gone higher. And that's the market pricing in rate hikes in those countries. In the U.S., it's a little bit different.
我们是一家双重使命的央行，因此我们也必须关注就业情况。但在美国发生的情况是，市场并没有持续消化加息预期，而是降低了降息预期。这实际上是一个鹰派反应。这种市场反应是完全合理的，因为如果你关注现货油价，它仍在上升，这推动了通胀预测的上升。例如，英国央行的通胀预测已经上调了一个百分点。在最近的一次会议上，有一位成员建议英国央行应该加息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We are a dual-mandate central bank, and so we also have to come look at employment. But what happened in the U.S. was instead of pricing in rate hikes, which it did very briefly, it priced away rate cuts. So also a hawkish reaction. And this kind of market reaction is totally reasonable because if you look at spot oil, it continues to trend higher. And that is feeding into higher inflation forecasts. Looking at the Bank of England, for example, their inflation forecasts moved up by one percentage point. Their most recent meeting, they had one descent, suggesting that the Bank of England should be hiking rates.
他们似乎采取了一种观望态度，因为从他们的角度来看，虽然油价上涨，但他们担心是否会导致通货膨胀。他们对此有些不确定，因为劳动力市场和经济状况都比较疲软。这让他们觉得公司可能无法提价，工人也可能无法要求更高的工资。他们称之为“第二轮效应”。这也是欧洲央行主席拉加德提到的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
They seem to be taking a more wait-and-see attitude because from their perspective, it seems like even though oil prices are higher, they are worried about, they are less, or at least a little bit unsure whether or not it will pass through through inflation because the labor market is weak and the economy is weak. And that suggests to them that maybe the companies might not be able to raise prices and maybe workers might not be able to demand higher wages. They call this second round effects. This was also something that was mentioned by Madame Lagarde at the ECB.
让我们来听一段音频。到六月时，我们将获得更多信息，这将帮助我们重新审视、确定和验证是否存在第二轮效应。正如我所说，指标将包括许多方面，如工资设定、雇佣情况、售价调整和商品价格。我应该首先提到商品价格，因为这不仅涉及石油和天然气，还有通过霍尔木兹海峡传输的所有衍生产品和其他相关内容。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's listen to a clip here. By June, we will have a lot more information that will help us revisit, ascertain, verify to see whether or not we have second round effects. As I said, the number of indicators will include many, many elements from the wage setting, the hiring, the selling price revisions, the commodity prices. I should have mentioned that one first, commodities prices, because it's both oil and gas, but also all the derivative and everything that is actually channeled through the Strait of Hormuz in particular.
因此，欧洲央行上周也没有加息，但他们似乎暗示进行了讨论，可能在六月加息。就像英国一样，他们在考虑油价上涨是否会以可持续的方式影响经济，如果导致通胀持续上升，他们可能会采取措施。上周，日本央行也召开了一次会议，其中有三位成员表示反对。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the ECB also did not hike rates last week, but they did seem to suggest that there was a discussion and they could possibly do this in June. Just like the UK, they are wondering whether or not the increase in oil prices would actually feed through to the economy in a sustainable way and higher that produces sustainably increased inflation than they might want to lean against that. Last week, we also had a meeting from the Bank of Japan, and there were actually three dissents with the Bank of Japan meeting.
日本银行没有对利率进行任何调整，然而，三位持不同意见的委员似乎更加倾向于鹰派立场。现在，如果你看日本银行的预测，你会发现他们将2026年的通胀预测上调了大约一个百分点。至于石油方面，众所周知，美国受到的影响较小，更加不易受冲击，而亚洲国家如日本受影响最大，因为它们基本上都是依赖进口石油。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the Bank of Japan did not do anything with their rates, and the three dissents seemingly were more hawkish. Now, if you look at the forecasts from the Bank of Japan, you also see that they also raised their inflation forecast for 2026 by about a percentage point. Now, as far as oil is concerned, the US, as we all know, is a little bit more insulated, a lot more insulated, and the most exposed are the Asian countries like Japan, which basically imports all their oil.
因此，当油价上涨时，它会非常直接地影响到他们的通货膨胀预期，甚至实际的整体通胀水平。它也会影响到欧元区，虽然欧元区比亚洲国家稍微更能承受一些外部影响，但依然面临很大压力，特别是在他们对继续使用俄罗斯能源有些犹豫的情况下。如果这种情况持续下去，那么最大的问题当然是能源危机究竟会持续多久。如果能源危机明天结束，霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，我们将会看到大约一个月时间才能把那里的石油运往其他国家。而在这一个月期间，我们将继续消耗库存。因此，价格可能仍然会上涨，但到那时，央行可以说看到了隧道尽头的光明，也许就不需要立刻做出反应。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So as oil prices increase, it very directly feeds into their inflation, expectations, or actually headline inflation. It also impacts Euroland, getting Euroland a little bit more insulated than the Asian countries, but still very much exposed, especially, of course, as they are somewhat reluctant to continue to have Russian energy. Now, if this continues, we could – so the big, big question mark is, of course, how long does the energy shock endure? If the energy shock were to end tomorrow, Strait of Hormuz opens, what we're going to see is about a month before the shipments from the Strait of Hormuz will be shipped to other countries, and during that one month, we'll continue to draw down inventories. And so prices will probably still be elevated, but then the central banks will be able to say that, hey, I see a light at the end of this tunnel, so maybe we don't have to react.
也许这只是一个短暂的情况，大家都可以不予重视。但风险在于霍尔木兹海峡可能会关闭一个月、两个月甚至三个月。如果真的发生这种情况，他们就无法忽视这个问题，因此他们肯定会加息，而且不仅仅是他们。我觉得美联储也将不得不加息。正如我们上周讨论的，我们已经有三个人对政策表达了某种程度的反对，并不喜欢官方的表述。但如果油价真的飙升，而且不仅是油价，还有石化产品，当然还有化肥，这些都预示着食品价格的上涨，他们也将不得不采取行动。或许这不会产生多大影响，但对于央行来说，关键不是事情实际会怎样发展，或者世界实际如何运作，而是关于预测央行的想法。根据他们的决策框架，他们将不得不采取一些措施。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Maybe this is just something that's transitory that everyone can look through. The risk is that the Strait of Hormuz actually just stays shut for maybe another month, two months, three months. And should that happen, there is no way they can look through it. So they'll definitely have to hike, and not just them. I feel that the Fed will have to hike as well. As we discussed last week, we already had three people just kind of doing some very cowardly descents and not liking the language. But if oil prices really do surge, and it's not just oil prices, it's petrochemicals, and, of course, things like fertilizers, which suggest higher food prices, they'll have to act as well. Now, it may not have much of an impact, but the central banks, again, it's not about what actually will happen or how the world actually works. It's about the game is about guessing what the central banks think, and from their framework, they'll have to do something.
在我们录制时，霍尔木兹海峡似乎没有太多变化。有报道称，特朗普总统可能希望进行围困，试图拖垮伊朗，认为他们的经济会崩溃。我阅读了大量关于中东问题的专家和政治分析师的文章，没有一个人认为这种看法是正确的。大家似乎都认为伊朗能够承受更大的压力。此外，也有可能军事压力会继续增加。有很多报道说，中东地区正在调动更多的武器和装备。所以我们拭目以待，目前来看，霍尔木兹海峡似乎不会很快开放。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
As we record, it doesn't seem like there's much movement as to the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest that maybe President Trump would just want to have a siege and try to outlast the Iranians, thinking that their economy will implode. I've read an extensive amount of experts on the Middle East and political analysts and so forth, and not a single one believes that to be true. Everyone seems to believe that Iran has a much higher pain threshold. It's also possible that military scribes could resume to put additional pressure. There are a lot of reports that additional arms and stuff are being moved to the Middle East. So we'll see what happens at the moment. It does not seem like the Strait of Hormuz is going to be open anytime soon.
需要注意的一个日期是在两周后，特朗普总统将在中国会见习近平主席。而且特朗普总统上周还和普京总统进行了对话。所以，也许可能会有一个涉及俄罗斯和中国的外交解决方案。这可能需要美国推动乌克兰投降，并可能向世界表明台湾是中国的一个离岸省份。不过，让我们拭目以待。好的，我最后要谈的是一个关于日元的超级有趣的事情。上周，看起来日本央行终于出手干预了。如果你查看日元的走势图，很明显它一直在不断走弱，主要原因是货币政策过于宽松。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One calendar day to keep in mind is that in two weeks, President Trump will be meeting President Xi in China. And President Trump also spoke to President Putin last week. So maybe there could be a diplomatic solution involving Russia and China. It may have to involve the U.S. maybe pushing Ukraine to surrender and maybe telling the world that Taiwan is a wayward province of China. But we'll see. All right, the last thing that I want to talk about is the super interesting thing that happened in the Japanese yen. So last week, it looks like the Bank of Japan finally jumped in to intervene. So if you look at a chart of the Japanese yen, it looks obviously it's been weakening relentlessly, in large part because monetary policy is too easy.
他们的通货膨胀率大约是2-3%，但利率却低于1%。所以从实际角度来看，利率是非常低的。这显然会导致货币继续贬值。日本央行基本上已经把160的美元兑日元汇率当作一个底线。几年前，他们花费了大约1000亿美元进行干预以保护这一水平，这确实为他们赢得了不少时间。但是从图表上可以看到，市场继续推高美元兑日元汇率，继续抛售日元，因为这没有道理，对吧？日元太弱了，因为利率太低了。目前，最新的推动因素当然是油价冲击。众所周知，日本大量进口石油，这对日本经济来说是一个逆风，带来了停滞和更高的通胀，经济增长停滞和通胀加剧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Their inflation is, say, 2-3%, and yet their interest rates are below 1%. So in real terms, interest rates are very low. And so obviously, the currency is going to continue to depreciate. Now, the Bank of Japan has basically drawn a line in the sand of 160 USDJPY. In the past, a couple of years ago, they spent about $100 billion intervening to protect that. And that did buy them a lot of time. But as you see from the chart, the market just keeps pushing the USDJPY higher and higher, keeps selling the yen because it just doesn't make sense, right? The yen is just too weak because interest rates are too low. Now, the latest impetus is, of course, the oil price shock. Everyone understands that Japan imports a lot of oil. So that is a headwind to the Japanese economy, both stagnation and higher inflation, stagnating economic growth and higher inflation.
因此，市场一直在挑战这一点。看起来日本央行出手干预市场，花费了大约300亿美元。不过这基本上是一场无法取胜的战斗，除非他们最终提高利率，而他们可能会在六月采取行动。我认为市场对这种情况一直有所预期。有趣的是，在评论中，日本政府还提到他们愿意干预石油市场。这样的评论表明他们认为油价上涨与日元贬值之间存在联系，这完全说得通。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so the market has been challenging that. And it looks like the Bank of Japan jumped in and spent, I think, maybe $30 billion trying to intervene in the market. And this is something that is basically going to be an unwinnable battle until they finally hike interest rates, which they might do in June. So that was, I think, always to be expected from the markets. One interesting thing to note is that in commentary, the Japanese government also mentioned that they were willing to intervene in the oil market. Now, the comments suggest that they perceive a linkage between higher oil prices and a weaker yen. Totally makes sense.
当然，他们说这只是大量的猜测。因此，你知道，也许他们可以进入市场进行检查。现在，如果你看看原油期货的价格，周四似乎出现了抛物线式的上涨，然后就开始崩溃。没有人知道日本政府是否真的进行了干预。哦，也许是其他国家政府进行了干预。显然，这是一个全球性的问题，很多利益相关者对此感兴趣，愿意并有能力进行干预。所以，你知道，在金融市场上可能会有更多的国家进行干预，以缓解中东战争的影响。有人会说，永远不应该在市场上干预或者类似的事情，这种做法并不好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, of course, they say that there's just a lot of this speculation. So, you know, maybe they can go in and check the market. Now, if you look at the price of crude oil futures, you do see it seemingly going parabolic on Thursday and then just kind of imploding. Nobody knows if the Japanese government did, in fact, intervene. Oh, maybe some other government intervened. This is, of course, a global problem that a lot of interested parties, a lot of parties have an interest in and would be willing to do and have the capability of doing. So, you know, it's not impossible that you could have more sovereign intervention in the financial markets to try to, I guess, buffer the impact of the Middle Eastern War. Some people would say that, you know, you can never intervene in the market or so forth, that this is not good.
事实是，在为这种事情定价时，其中的一部分会带有投机性质，因为你无法预测战争何时结束。因此，当活跃于市场中时，你显然可以影响人们的看法，而这些看法最终会影响到实际的价格。现在，如果战争不结束，情况甚至会更糟，干预的政府可能会面临损失。但实际上，他们资金充裕，所以可能并不在意。那么，谁又能确切知道呢？也许股票市场和其他一切如此有韧性的一部分原因是因为有国家的干预。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But the truth is that, you know, in setting prices for anything like this, part of it is going to be speculation because you just don't know when the war will end. So, being active into market, you can obviously shape perceptions that ultimately shape actual prices. Now, if the war doesn't end, actually, the way it goes even higher, the governments that intervene will sit on losses. But really, they have a lot of money, so they probably don't care. So, who knows? Maybe part of the reason why the stock market and everything else is so resilient is that you also have sovereign intervention.
我不太清楚，但我不会完全排除政府有这种可能性，因为这当然关乎国家安全和他们的经济政策。好了，这就是我今天准备的内容。非常感谢大家的收听。最近这些日子实在是太激动人心了。我仍然认为市场低估了这次巨大能源冲击的经济影响。我们的经济实际上已经遭受重创，只是目前感觉还不错，直到有一天，也许股市下跌得比预期更快，油价可能会迅速飙升。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I have no idea, but it is something that I would not put it past the governments because this is, of course, a matter of national security and their economic policy. All right. So, that's what I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Again, very, very exciting times. I continue to think that I think that the market is underappreciating the economic impact of this huge energy shock. And we really do just have been, the economy has been nuked and we really are just feeling fine until one day, maybe the stocks draw down faster than expected, oil could shoot up very quickly.
然后，即使到那时，战争结束后也需要一些时间才能让供应恢复正常。好的。下周再和大家聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, even then, it will take time after the war ends for supplies to normalize. All right. Talk to you guys next week.