Markets Weekly May 9, 2026
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#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
01:26 - Lower K Falling Apart
04:27 - Semi Boom
08:35 - Financial Stability Report
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
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中英文字稿 
你好，我的朋友们。今天是5月9日，欢迎收听《市场每周》。在我们开始之前，我想提一下，上周五美国政府解密了一大批不明飞行物（UFO）的文件。在这些文件中，你可以看到早在20世纪40年代，美国空军就已经在调查关于飞碟的大量报告。我知道这一点，是因为我亲身经历过一次UFO事件。2013年，我在伦敦郊外散步，抬头看夜空时，看到几个像火焰一样的东西，高速排列飞行。所谓火焰，就像你点燃火柴时，火苗会跳动，我看到的东西在空中飞舞。我立刻拿出手机拍照，令我惊讶的是，手机拍摄的照片显示的不是火焰，而是一个圆形物体，基本上就是一个飞碟。正如他们所说，真相就在那儿。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is May 9th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, before we begin, I'll note that on Friday, the U.S. government declassified a whole bunch of UFO files. And among those files, you can see that as early as the 1940s, the U.S. Air Force was investigating widespread reports of flying saucers in the air. I know this because I have a firsthand account of a UFO. Back in 2013, I was walking outside of London, I looked into the night sky, and I saw what looked like flying flames, flying in formation at high speed. By flame, I mean kind of like when you light a match, you can see that flame dancing around. That's what I saw flying out in the sky. I immediately took out my cell phone and took a photo, and to my surprise, this is what the cell phone photo looked like. To my naked eye, it was a flame, but to the cell phone camera, it was a circular object. Basically, a flying saucer. So, as they say, the truth is out there.
现在，今天，我们来谈谈三件事。首先，我们必须讨论一下“K”的下半部分是如何分崩离析的。其次，我们当然要谈谈股票市场，特别是半导体股票，它们已经变得非常疯狂，在我个人看来，这些股票不可避免地会崩溃。最后，我们要讨论美联储最新的金融稳定报告，其中有一些关于金融体系现状的有趣图表。好吧，先从“K”的下半部分开始。上周，我们收到了非农就业报告，整体就业数据不错，创造了超过10万个就业机会，远超预期。鉴于人口结构的变化，我们真正需要关注的是失业率，它保持在4.3%，这还是相当不错的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, today, let's talk about three things. First off, we have to talk about how the lower part of the K is falling apart. Secondly, let's talk, of course, you have to talk about the stock market that has gone absolutely crazy, especially the semiconductor stocks, and that, in my personal view, that will inevitably implode. And lastly, we have to talk about the latest financial stability report from the Fed, some interesting graphs as to the state of the financial system. All right, starting with the lower part of the K. So, last week, we had the non-informs perils report, and the headline job number was good. It was over 100,000 jobs created, much better than expected. Now, we have these changing demographic shifts, so what we really want to focus on, of course, is the unemployment rate, which stood pat at 4.3%, which is totally decent.
现在，真正引起我注意的是工资，因为工资增长正在减缓。如果你预期劳动力市场火热，那么你会预料到雇主们会在竞争中争夺工人，尤其是在劳动力总量没有增长的情况下。他们会通过提供更高的工资来吸引工人，但事实并非如此。上周，我们还收到了最新的密歇根大学消费者信心调查，令人惊讶的是，它的结果创下了最低记录。这个调查已经进行了几十年，虽然有一些方法上的变更，但结果还是很低。现在，按照坊间说法，消费者因为通货膨胀而非常不满，对吗？通胀正在侵蚀他们的生活水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, what really caught my eye, though, were wages, because wages are decelerating. If you were expecting a hot labor market, what you would expect is employers to compete for workers, especially as the workforce is not growing. And they would compete for workers by offering higher wages, but that's just not happening. Last week, we also got the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, and to my surprise, it printed at record lows. Like, this survey goes back decades, and there have been methodological changes, but still, it's a very low read. Now, anecdotally, it seems like consumers are very unhappy because of inflation, right? That is eroding their living standards.
当你看到通货膨胀指数时，会发现它在加速上升。如果通胀加速而工资增长减缓，那就意味着你的实际工资在下降，你的生活水平在下降。比如说，随着汽油价格飙升，消费者需要在加油站花费更多的钱，他们会感到经济压力更大，开车出行的次数也会减少，剩下的钱可用于购买其他物品的也会更少。这似乎就是目前的情况。上周，我们看到一批公司发布了财报。比如，卡夫亨氏就表示，他们的消费者几乎用光了存款，根本无法维持生计。卡夫亨氏是一家生产大量食品产品的公司，尤其是针对中低收入群体。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When you look at the inflation numbers, they are accelerating, and if inflation is accelerating and wages are decelerating, that means your real wages are declining, your living standards are declining. So, let's say, with gasoline surging up here, surging higher, consumers are going to have to spend more money at the pump, they're going to feel poor, they'll drive less, and they'll have less money left over to buy other things. And that seems to be what's happening. So, last week, we also had a bunch of companies report. We had, for example, Kraft Heinz suggest that, for them, their poor consumers are literally running out of money, reaching into savings, and just not able to make ends meet. Kraft Heinz is a company that produces a lot of food products, particularly for those in the lower part of the K.
现在，我们来看健身房公司Planet Fitness，该公司主要迎合K字母曲线底部的群体，其财报数据同样不太乐观。而且，看看他们的股价，市场显然对他们的信息不满意。同样有趣的是，我们还看到了惠而浦的报告。根据惠而浦的说法，他们的家电需求基本处于衰退水平，情况不容乐观。其中一个原因可能是由于高抵押贷款利率限制了新房市场的发展。通常情况下，人们买了新房后也会买电器，这可能对他们的业务造成了影响。从他们的股价来看，市场对他们的财报电话会议并不看好，且他们的表现一直不佳。惠而浦是主要在美国生产制造的公司。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, we also had Planet Fitness, a gym company that caters more towards the lower part of the K, also suggesting weaker numbers. And, of course, if you look at their stock price, the market just didn't like what they heard. Interestingly, we also had Whirlpool report. And according to Whirlpool, demand for their appliances is basically at recessionary levels. Things are not going well. Part of this could be, of course, that high mortgage rates are limiting the new housing, new home market. So, usually, when you buy a new home, you buy appliances as well. So, that could be impacting them. If you look at their stock price, they did not like the earnings call, but they've been doing it very poorly for some time. Whirlpool is a company that largely manufactures in the United States.
因此，他们实际上并未受到关税的影响，但本应成为美国制造业复兴的受益者。不过，你知道，这似乎还没有发生，至少目前还没有。所以，总体来看，许多美国工人正在遭受痛苦。这种情况与我们在市场上看到的形成对比，这就引出了我们的第二个话题。股市每天都在飙升，不断创下历史新高。特别是科技股，节节攀升。当你回过头来观察几周前战争恐慌后的复苏情况时，真的感觉就像是直线上升。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, they are not really impacted by tariffs, but they should have been a beneficiary of a potential U.S. manufacturing renaissance. But, you know, that just doesn't look like it's happening, at least not yet. So, overall, a lot of the workers in the U.S. are suffering. And so, that kind of stands in contrast with what we see into the market, which goes to our second topic. The stock market is just surging, like, every single day, all-time highs, all-time highs. Especially the tech stocks, they just go higher and higher and higher. Really, when you take a step back and look at this recovery from the war panic a few weeks ago, it really looks like we've gone vertical.
现在，这一切的主要推动力当然是人工智能的热潮。如果你查看SOX指数，那个半导体指数，你会发现它的增长曲线呈现抛物线形状。我想不用我多说，这种情况是不可持续的。每当图表呈现这样的走势时，最终都会崩溃。我特别想指出英特尔。回顾一下英特尔的股票，这简直是疯狂。首先，英特尔受益于半导体和人工智能的热潮。此外，政府支持的预期也对他们有利。特朗普总统代表美国纳税人对英特尔进行了重大股权投资，目前看来这项投资表现不错。但是，归根结底，其实跟其他任何事情一样，都是供需关系在起作用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, the big driver of this, of course, is the AI boom. Now, if you look at the SOX index, the semiconductor index, you can see that, guys, it's going parabolic. And I don't think you need me to tell you that this is not sustainable. And whenever a chart looks like this, on the other side, eventually, it will ultimately implode. Now, in particular, I'm going to point out Intel. Intel, zooming out, looking at Intel stock, it's just insane, right? Now, first off, Intel is benefiting from the semiconductor AI boom. But also, of course, the perception that the government there is there to support them. President Trump made a big equity investment in Intel on behalf of the U.S. taxpayer. And it looks like that investment has been doing well so far. But, of course, at the end of the day, like anything else, just supply and demand.
在我个人看来，这就是动量和杠杆的作用。在 1920 年代和互联网泡沫时期，很多杠杆是通过保证金贷款实现的。现在，人们不再像以前那样频繁使用这种方式。最新的杠杆方式是通过期权。Zero Hedge 的一张有趣的图表显示，认购期权的活动有激增的趋势，这可能促使股票市场出现当前的状况。很多人可能会指出，这次不同，因为有收益等因素。但我对此并不信服，因为我并不认为收益有多大影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And in my personal view, it's just momentum and leverage. Now, in the 1920s, in the dot-com era, a lot of leverage was through margin loans. People don't really do that as much now. The latest way to get leverage is through options. And you have this interesting chart from Zero Hedge suggesting that there is a surge in call option activity. And that probably is contributing to what you see in the stock market. Now, many people will note that, oh, it's different this time because of, you know, earnings and stuff like that. But I don't find that persuasive at all because I don't believe earnings matter.
一个简单的说法是，如果你观察互联网泡沫时期，那些公司基本上没有收益，但它们的股价却飞速上涨，对吧？所以，显然收益本身不是那么决定性。关于收益的重要性，强调它也不太准确。但我们可以进一步探讨一下这个问题，整个标普500指数确实有很强的收益增长。科技公司也有很强的收益增长，尽管有些更深思熟虑的人会指出，这些收益并不完全如表面所示。例如，《金融时报》上有一篇文章提到，对于很多大型科技公司来说，他们的收益很大一部分实际上是来自于他们对AI初创公司（如Anthropic和OpenAI）投资中的股权增值。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So one easy way to say that is if you look at the dot-com boom, these companies had basically no earnings, but they went to the moon, right? So obviously, obviously, earnings is that important. So putting at earnings is neither here nor there. But just to further on that point, the S&P 500 as a whole does have strong earnings growth. Technology companies do have strong earnings growth, although some of the people who are a bit more thoughtful will also note that those earnings are not completely what they say. For example, there's this article in the FT noting that for a lot of the big tech companies, a lot of their earnings are basically just in equity gains from their investments into AI startups like Anthropic, like OpenAI.
基本上，这些公司持有OpenAI和Anthropic的股票，但这些股票并未在公开市场上交易。由于人工智能的热潮，这些股票的估值在上升，这反映为超大规模计算公司的收入增加。此外，还要注意这些公司表示他们有大量已签约的收入来源。在未来，有很多客户在购买他们的计算服务。但仔细观察，这些客户中有很多实际上是他们投资的公司。也就是说，像亚马逊或微软这样的超大规模计算公司向Anthropic和OpenAI这类公司投资，给予资金，以换取股权。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So basically, these companies have stock, again, not publicly traded stock in OpenAI and Anthropic. And because of the AI boom, the evaluations of these stocks are going up. And so that is showing up as increased income for the hyperscalers. Also note that the hyperscalers are suggesting they have a lot of contracted revenue. In the pipeline, a lot of people are buying their computing services. But when you look in detail, a lot of the people who are buying their services are basically the companies they're investing in. So basically, you have a hyperscaler, say an Amazon or something like that, or Microsoft investing, giving money to Anthropic, to OpenAI in exchange for equity.
那些 AI 初创公司把资金循环投入，换取计算能力。这是一个非常循环的过程，如果 AI 热潮持续下去，这当然是件好事。因为如果 AI 热潮继续，AI 初创公司的估值会上升，他们就会有越来越多的能力购买更多的计算资源。因此，他们的收入和合同收入都会增加，这对他们来说就像是一个良性循环。但是，如果市场情绪发生变化，这个良性循环就会逆转。无论如何，我仍然认为，这种巨大的激增仅仅是由于动量和杠杆效应，这让整个系统变得脆弱。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And those AI startups turning around and sending the money right back and getting compute in exchange. So it's a very circular thing, which, of course, can be very good if this AI boom continues. Because if the AI boom continues, then the valuation of these AI startups go up and they will have more and more capacity to buy more compute. So revenue, contracted revenue will go up for, and so it's kind of like a virtuous cycle for them. But if, you know, there's a change in sentiment, then that virtuous cycle will go in reverse. In any case, I continue to think that looking at these huge, huge surges, again, it's just momentum and leverage that makes the system fragile.
我不知道是什么改变了这种动态。但当你脆弱时，真的不需要太多改变。好的，最后我想谈谈美联储最新发布的金融稳定报告。现在，让我们来看看其中一些我认为有趣的内容。首先，当然是美联储或其工作人员对股市估值的看法，实际上并不是特别高。虽然市盈率在历史上是偏高的，但并没有高到离谱的程度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
What changes the dynamics, I don't know. But when you're fragile, it doesn't really take much. All right, the last thing that I want to talk about is the latest financial stability report released from the Federal Reserve. Now, looking through it, let's highlight a few things that I thought were somewhat interesting. Well, first off, of course, we have to go with the Fed's perception or the Fed staff's perception of the valuation of the stock market, which actually isn't super high, though. Like the P-E ratio is historically elevated, but not ridiculously so.
你可以看看这张P-E（市盈率）图表，很容易就会发现市盈率其实没那么重要，对吧？有时候市盈率会飙得很高，有时候又会降得很低。如果市盈率真是股市投资者的重要指标，那么当股票便宜时，人们就应该买入；而当股票价格很高时，人们就应该卖出。这样市盈率就会是一个均值回归的序列，但事实并非如此。有时候它会高得离谱，有时候又会非常低。按照市盈率进行投资的人，我们称之为价值投资者。现在这种投资者已经不多了，因为这种策略已经几十年不太奏效了。市场的价格基本上是由人的心理决定的，每个人都是根据各自的视角来买卖股票的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But you can just look at this chart of P-E, and you can immediately see that P-E does not matter, right? So sometimes it goes really high. Sometimes it goes really low. If P-E were an important metric for stock investors, then what you would expect is that when stocks are cheap, you'd have people come in and buy them. And when stocks are very high, you'd have people come in and sell them. And so the P-E ratio would be a mean reverting series, but it's just not, right? Sometimes it goes ridiculously high. Sometimes it's very low. The class of investors that would have invested according to this, we would call them value investors. These guys are – there's not that many of them left because it just hasn't worked for decades. So it's – and markets are basically – prices are basically psychological, right? Everyone buys and sells based on different perspectives.
如果你用这种方式看世界，比如用价值投资的方式，但这种方式的适用范围在缩小，那这就不会对价格产生影响。也许在20世纪80年代，这种看待世界的方式是有用的，但今天显然不是这样了。好，我们继续，正如我们都知道的，目前单户住宅的价格相较于租金来说相当高，并且这种情况在过去几年一直持续。不过好消息是，房价虽然在上涨，但涨得很慢。因此，随着时间的推移，你会预期工资增长速度快于房价，正如Chirpah提到的，经过一段时间，价格水平就不会显得那么贵了，因为工资已经超越了房价的增速。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so if you have this, I guess, way of looking at the world, value investing way of looking at the world shrinking, then that's just not going to shape prices. And so maybe in the 1980s, this was a useful way of looking at the world, but it very obviously is not today. Okay, so moving on, you can see, in addition, as we all know, home – single-family home prices are quite elevated when it comes to – relative to rent. And that's something that's been persistent for the past few years. The good news is that the prices basically are just increasing, but increasing very slowly. So over time, what you would expect, and Chirpah was noted this, is that prices will increase slowly, wages will increase faster than home prices, and after a period of time, the level of prices won't look that expensive because wages have been outpacing them.
这需要很多年的过程，并且可能会受到低利率的影响，但现在很难说这方面会发生什么变化。我发现一件相当有趣的事情是，美联储的工作人员表示，农田的价值被大幅高估。很多人由于担心货币贬值等问题而争相购买硬资产，不过，从历史角度看，如果把农田的价值与其能够产生的租金相比，它现在的估值确实较高。因此，目前似乎并不是个好的投资选择。我们再看看其他的情况。哦，好吧，接下来我们来看看消费者信贷的情况。有趣的是，信用卡贷款水平在各个领域都有所上升。其中，经济条件较差的消费者增加幅度很大，这与我们之前讨论的内容一致。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's a process that takes many years and could be held by lower interest rates, but, you know, it's hard to say what will happen with that right now. Now, one thing that I did think was pretty interesting was that, according to the Fed staff, farmland is massively overvalued. Now, a lot of people are rushing towards hard assets in fear of debasement or whatnot, but, you know, when you're looking at farmland relative to the rents that you can collect on it, historically, it's quite elevated. So it doesn't seem like that's a great place to hide at the moment. Let's see what else is here. Oh, okay, so next up, let's look at what's happening in the consumer credit. So interesting thing is that credit card loan levels have been rising across the spectrum. This looks like there's a very big jump for consumers that are less well-off, and that's kind of consistent with what we talked about earlier.
对于一些收入最低的消费者来说，他们的钱已经所剩无几，因此可能会通过信用卡借款来维持生计。现在，信用卡贷款似乎也在增加，甚至那些经济状况较好的人也在增加，但这可能是因为他们对自己的消费更有信心。因此，经济呈现出一种“案例型”特征。有趣的是，汽车贷款违约率历史性地居高不下。这其中的一个原因可能是，许多人在疫情期间因为供应链紧张，购买了价格过高的汽车，结果发现车的价值低于贷款，可能他们现在并不想还款。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
For some of the least well-off consumers, they are literally running out of money, and so they might be trying to make ends meet by borrowing from their credit cards. Now, credit card loans are also growing for, looks like, the people that are better off, but, you know, that just could be because they feel more confident about their spending. So very much a case-shaped economy. Interesting that auto delinquencies are historically quite elevated. Part of that could potentially be that a lot of people during the pandemic era just bought cars that were vastly overpriced because of the supply line chain squeeze, and so they were stuck with cars that were worth less than their loan, and maybe they don't feel like paying it at the moment.
我在金融稳定报告中看到的最后一件有趣的事情是关于私人信贷的小部分。众所周知，很多人对此感到担忧。他们向一些被颠覆中的软件公司提供了大量贷款，因此许多投资者要求收回他们的钱。在一些私人信贷公司中，私人信贷是一个庞大的生态系统，拥有不同类型的基金结构。其中一些基金提供季度流动性，到目前为止，这些基金实际上出现了净流出。即使有新投资者的资金流入，总体上还是有更多的投资者要求赎回资金。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The last thing I thought was pretty interesting in the financial stability report was this small segment on private credit. As we all know, a lot of people are worried about private credit. They made a whole bunch of loans to software companies that are being disrupted, and so there have been a lot of investors asking for their money back. So for some of the private credit firms, so private credit is a large ecosystem. You have different types of fund structures. Some of them provide quarterly liquidity, and so far for those funds, there actually has been a net outflow. So even though they get inflows from new investors, on net, more investors are asking for their money back.
现在，这并不是美联储员工担心的问题，因为首先，这其实并不是金融体系中很大的一部分。此外，这些私人信贷基金有很多流动资金。它们与商业银行有信用额度，显然它们有足够的信贷来覆盖相当于三个季度的资金流出。说到底，它们只需要为大约5%的基金提供流动性。而且对很多基金来说，如果他们认为对基金有利或者类似情况，他们有条款可以完全不提供流动性。所以这里有可能设有一些限制措施，可以防止出现任何严重的问题，所以这不是什么需要担心的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, this isn't a concern to Fed staff because, well, first off, it's actually not that big of a part of the financial system, but these private credit funds have a lot of liquidity. They have credit lines with commercial banks, and apparently they have enough credit to cover, let's say, three-quarters worth of outflows. At the end of the day, of course, they only have to provide liquidity for about 5% of their fund, and for a lot of them, they have clauses such that they don't have to provide any liquidity if they deem it's, I guess, an interest of the fund or something like that. So there are potential gates here that prevent any kind of serious run, so it's not something to worry about.
好的。需要注意一点的是，在我们讨论时，霍尔木兹海峡仍然关闭。彭博社有一张有趣的图表显示，虽然世界无法从霍尔木兹海峡获取那么多石油，但全球的石油库存正在迅速减少。未来几周，这种减少可能导致石油短缺的状况出现，我们现在可能就面临真正的供应不足问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. Just one thing to note is that, as we discuss, as we're talking, the Strait of Hormuz is still shut, and there's this interesting graph from Bloomberg showing that so far, even as the world is not getting as much oil from the Strait of Hormuz, that they're drawing down their global inventories, and the global inventories are drawing down rapidly, and in the coming weeks, it may reach a point where scarcity will hit, and we could have some real shortages right now.
据我所知，总统几天前向伊朗发送了停火或和平提议。他每天都说他希望能尽快收到伊朗方面的回复，但我猜伊朗并没有回电给总统，所以我不太清楚现在的情况。让我们看看这周会发生什么吧。当然，下周末，我们还有特朗普总统会见习近平主席的安排。这将是一次激动人心的会晤。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, I guess the president sent a ceasefire or peace proposal to Iran a few days ago, and he's been saying every day that he's been expecting to hear from the Iranians imminently, but I guess the Iranians are just not calling the president back, and so I'm not sure what's happening. So let's see what happens to that this week, and of course, at the end of next week, we have President Trump going to meet with President Xi. It's going to be an exciting meeting.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听。下周再和大家聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. So that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Talk to you guys next week.