Daily Market Coverage Apr. 1, 2026 9AM-11AM (ET) | Yahoo Finance
发布时间 2026-04-01 15:28:20 来源
I welcome to Yahoo! Finance is morning brief on this Wednesday April 1st, 1st day of the 2nd quarter on myosalvan. That is Ryan Payne. He is with Payne Capital Management. Ryan, thanks so much for stopping by. Let's talk a little bit about the calendar. How do you feel about calendars in general? I think in the news business, calendars are a big deal. We are now in Q2. We exit in Q1. I went through Monday, Tuesday, this week with the team. We are like, okay, we have to go through top five of this. Bottom five of that. Really make a big deal of it. How are you thinking about the setup here as we exit? Again, time is arbitrary, calendar based, and of what has been an eventful Q1. I personally feel looser calendar. That is my life. But no, I think obviously when you think about the calendar in the markets, I follow it pretty closely.
我欢迎来到雅虎财经的早间简报。今天是4月1日星期三，也是第二季度的第一天。我们这里有Ryan Payne，他来自Payne资本管理公司。Ryan，非常感谢你抽空来参加。我们来聊聊日历吧。你对日历一般有什么看法？我觉得在新闻行业，日历是非常重要的。目前我们进入了第二季度，第一季度已经结束。本周一和周二，我和团队一起度过，我们想，好吧，我们必须理清这些事情中最重要的五个，最不重要的五个，真的要把重点放在这上面。你对现在的局势有什么看法？尽管时间是任意的、基于日历的，但第一季度确实是多事之秋。我个人觉得时间上比较轻松，这是我的生活方式。但显然，当你考虑市场时，我还是非常密切地关注日历的。
You think about earning season as you come into April. It brings back a lot of chaos back to focus on the actual fundamentals. Obviously, every day, we are talking about this year. You just wake up in the morning. What are you missing in the news that you have to catch up on right away? At the beginning of the year, I don't think I was going to predict that we were going to invade Venezuela. We are going to war in Iran. The list goes on. You just don't know what is going to happen right now. I feel things are more day to day, maybe a little less. Focus on the cyclical calendar or the cycle of the calendar, as you like to say. I guess I am curious. You follow markets. You have to talk clients through their concerns.
你考虑到四月的时候的财报季，就会联想到很多混乱又开始聚焦在实际的基本面上。显然，我们每天都在谈论今年的事情。每天早上醒来，你都会想，新闻中有什么是你必须立刻了解的？年初的时候，我并没有预测我们会入侵委内瑞拉，也没想到我们会与伊朗开战，这类事情真的是层出不穷。你根本无法预测接下来会发生什么。我感觉现在的情况更像是日复一日的状态，也许少一些对周期性日历的关注。你在关注市场，还需要与客户探讨他们的担忧，这让我很好奇。
People are going to call about this at the other. But at the same time, my perception is, you can correct me if I am wrong. For me, it is like wake up, hairs on fire. If we have more bombs drop than Iran or Trump says something. He has got lessons out overnight in Switzerland. It is like, oh my gosh, we have got to plan around this. How do you think about those distinct news events, which may or may not set off a chain reaction within your own firm's communication? No, no, it is a good question. First off, you always have to be prepared ahead of time. Because let's face it, no one predicted the beginning of the year that oil is going to be the place to be. Commodities are going to be the place to be.
人们可能会对此议论纷纷，但与此同时，我的看法是，如果我错了，请指正。在我看来，这种情况就像突然爆发的紧急状况。如果我们遇到比伊朗问题更严重的情况，或者特朗普发表什么言论，就像是，他隔夜在瑞士就推出了某些决定，我们就得围绕这个来做计划。您如何看待这些独立的新闻事件，这些事件可能会或可能不会在您公司内部引发连锁反应？这是个好问题。首先，您必须提前做好准备。毕竟，没有人能在年初预测到石油和大宗商品会成为热门。
I think by having that proverbial all-weather portfolio, what fascinates me is everyone of my clients hated commodities for years. They did nothing. I am kind of like bad cop. I am like, you need to own your commodities and your portfolio. So, right when you are this year where commodities are up over 25%, energy infrastructure and report flow is up 25%. So it is just fascinating to me that someone who is in the business who thinks about all the time, you just can't predict the future. So you always have to have all your basis covered because whatever is going to happen or whatever is going to work in your portfolio, it is probably going to be unexpected. And I find that really interesting because I am like, thinking of being in the air like, there is no way I could have actually factored this into my asset allocation.
我认为，这种所谓的全天候投资组合很有意义。让我觉得有趣的是，我的每位客户之前都不喜欢商品投资，因为这些投资一直都没有什么表现。我有点像"坏警察"，总是告诉他们需要在投资组合中持有一些商品。今年，商品上涨了25%以上，能源基础设施和报告流也都上涨了25%。我觉得这很有意思，因为即使是那些时刻关注市场的人，也无法准确预测未来。因此，你必须确保你的投资组合各方面都得到很好的覆盖，因为最终有效的投资可能会是你意想不到的。这让我感到非常有趣，因为我总觉得，不可能提前把这种情况纳入我的资产配置中。
And if you think about going into this year, everything was about going global with your portfolio. It is a nice seven and going to start going up again, which we are still patiently waiting for. But whatever we are obsessing about, tends not to be what is actually going to happen. So let's talk about the commodities part of it because I am curious how you think about decomposing. Let's call it heavy industry because I think it is commodities but you have also got utilities, materials, a lot of things that have worked in there. How you decompose, if at all, what piece of it is still the AI trade, still a bunch of people buying materials to try to build these data centers.
如果回顾这一年，可以发现所有重心都放在了让你的投资组合走向全球化上面。这是个不错的七分，正在开始再次上涨，我们依然耐心地等待着。但是我们过分关注的事情往往不是实际会发生的事情。那么让我们谈谈商品部分，因为我很好奇你是如何分解这个领域的。我们可以称之为重工业，因为这不仅涉及商品，还包括公用事业、材料等很多方面。你是如何分解这些的，能否理解仍然有一部分是与人工智能相关的交易，仍然有很多人在购买材料以建造这些数据中心。
But then there is obviously all the geopolitical headlines, which have been a huge boom specifically for oil prices and how you have seen that impacting the stocks of some of the majors. Yeah, no, it is really good point. I think we have gone back to old school economy versus new school economy. We have seen that transition. I know I got so tired about talking about it. It sure makes this way as well as the journalists. I don't want to talk about meg seven anymore. I am so tired of it. We will talk about them in a little bit. I am sure we are going to talk about them. Having said that we are going to talk about the meg seven. But no, I just think you get to a point where there is just so much brain damage to figure out, OK, open AI is not profitable.
然而，显而易见的是所有的地缘政治新闻，这些新闻对油价产生了巨大的推动作用，并且也影响了一些大公司的股票表现。是的，这是一个非常重要的观点。我认为我们正在经历从传统经济向新兴经济的转变。我们已经看到了这种转型。我知道，我已经厌倦了一直谈论这个问题。就连记者也是这样。我不想再讨论"G7"了，因为我真的厌倦了。不过，我们稍后还是会谈到它们。我确信我们会讨论它们。尽管如此，我觉得当面对如此多的信息时，有时脑子会搞得一团糟，特别是在思考像OpenAI这样的公司目前还没有盈利时。
When are they going to be profitable? How does that factor into all the spending by the hyperscalers? Are they going to see a return on an investment? There are so many variables there where I like the old school, I guess investment theme is just so easy to understand. It is like, OK, everyone is boosting their defense budgets. We have got urbanization happening rapidly in places like Southeast Asia, India where obviously you need a lot of old school base metals for all of that, right? All this has been undermined for years now. You are just seeing these old school industries, industrialization happening and you need all the metals to do that. You need all the different commodities to do that, minus gold because gold really isn't that much commercial years.
他们什么时候才能盈利？这对超大规模公司的支出有什么影响？他们能从投资中获得回报吗？这里有太多的变量，我比较喜欢传统的投资主题，因为它很容易理解。就像，当大家都在提高国防预算时，我们在东南亚和印度等地看到城市化快速发展，显然这需要大量的传统基础金属。多年来，这些需求一直被低估。现在你可以看到这些传统工业正在发展，而你需要各种金属来支持这一进程，当然，还需要各种商品，除了黄金，因为黄金的商业用途并不多。
What is kind of fascinating here is all the stuff trades super cheap around the world, like if you look at a lot of the mining stocks that are in places like Latin America where a lot of these deposits are, you have had the dollar a week and a lot of the last two, three years. All this stuff has come to life and it is really the antithesis of this digital trade that we are all talking about. Actually, I find it refreshing and it is a component to our portfolio. You get lots of big dividends, lots of lower valuations. I just feel like everybody needs to have this in their portfolio and not to say the Iran Wars a gift from the gods, but as an investor, since the dollar is kind of strengthened here, a lot of stuff sold off here, you are getting a nice window here to diversify your portfolio outside of the AI trade, which is like again, it is like everyone is just so over concentrated there.
这段话中令人感兴趣的是，世界各地的很多东西交易得非常便宜，比如在拉丁美洲这些矿床所在地区的许多矿业股票。过去两三年里，美元通常都很弱。所有这些东西逐渐活跃起来，这与我们一直谈论的数字交易正好相反。事实上，我觉得这令人耳目一新，也是我们投资组合的一部分。这些投资通常有很高的股息和较低的估值。我认为每个人的投资组合中都应该有这样的成分。虽然不说伊朗战争是天赐的礼物，但作为投资者，由于美元在这里有所走强，很多东西的价格有所回落，现在正是将你的投资组合多元化的好时机，从集中于人工智能投资转向其他领域。
You know, the phrase you brought up, which when I left Yahoo for a little bit went to a fintech where we were investing and I came back, right? Like a phrase that used to come up a lot was this idea of brain damage. It is like in an investing context, it is a really interesting one. We rarely bring it up on this program, but to me, it is, so here is my interpretation of it. Here is how I always thought about it, how do you think about it now? Which is basically like, okay, are we going to spend huge amounts of our time and resourcing to try to figure out something that it feels like literally everybody else is also trying to figure out when we could just move on and not have to have a strong view about the best model.
你知道，你提到的这个说法让我想起，当我离开雅虎一段时间去了一家金融科技公司进行投资，然后又回来了。当时经常会提到“脑力消耗”这个概念。在投资环境中，这是一个非常有趣的说法。我们在这个节目里很少提到它，但对我来说，这个概念很重要。下面是我对它的理解：我一直认为这是在考虑，我们是否要投入大量的时间和资源去弄清楚一个感觉上似乎每个人都在试图解决的问题，而不是选择放手，不必对哪个是最佳模式有强烈的看法。你现在是怎么看待这个问题的呢？
Like in this case, the way you referenced it, we don't have a strong view on the best model, the best AI research lab. The best LLM wrapper around a healthcare solution, all this got like, if you are venture capitalists, maybe you need to do that. But in the public markets, like everyone had a view on where Meta's cash flow was going to go, whatever it is, you know, how we want to do it. It is like, why don't we just do anything else with our time? Let's just do anything else and it feels like you are like, okay, let's have an industry in Southeast Asia. There is an opportunity that I don't hear about every day.
在这种情况下，根据你提到的方式，我们对哪个是最佳模型、最佳AI研究实验室，或者是围绕医疗解决方案的最佳大语言模型（LLM）封装并没有明确的看法。如果你是风险投资家，可能需要关注这些。但在公开市场上，就像大家对Meta的现金流走向都有自己的看法一样，无论是什么情况，都是以我们认为的方式来进行。为什么我们不去做其他事情呢？我们可以去做任何其他事情，而且感觉就像是， 好吧，我们可以在东南亚发展一个行业。这是一个我不常听到的机会。
Mag 7, it is like, I am just going to move on, I am going to take back the time as people might say and just choose to sit this one out in a way. And I think as an investor, you don't hear that often or we don't hear a lot of investors too often tell us like, you know, we decided that our time was just better used somewhere else. And maybe it's because I am talking to more specialized people who run a portfolio that is only this or only that and you guys are looking at full sleeves for clients across all kinds of needs. But yeah, I think that concept is very interesting.
Mag 7，就好像我只是想继续前进，我要把时间拿回来，就像人们可能会说的那样，只是选择在某种程度上袖手旁观。而且我认为，作为投资者，你不常听到这种说法，或者我们不常听到有投资者告诉我们，他们决定把时间用在其他地方可能更好。也许这是因为我在和那些更专业的人交谈，他们管理的投资组合非常专注，而你们则关注客户的全方位需求。但是我觉得这个观点非常有趣。
Listen, I don't need to figure this out actually. I can find plenty of other ways to make money. No, I mean, amen. It brings the grind. I think it comes under two things. Number one, I think people forget investing is a low IQ business, not a high IQ business. I think more. I think it's said that. I'm from Philadelphia. It's like really simple. So I think the other second part of that is the index is going to figure that out anyway. It's capitalization weighted. So like 90% of fund managers in the growth space have underperformed their benchmark.
听着，我其实不需要弄清楚这个。我可以找到很多其他挣钱的方法。不是，我的意思是，对，很辛苦。我认为这可以分为两个方面。首先，我觉得人们忘了投资其实不是个需要高智商的事情，而是个低智商的事情。我想这已经被提到过了。我来自费城，事情其实很简单。所以我觉得第二点是，指数会自己解决这些，因为它是按市值加权的。因此，大约90%的增长型基金经理表现都没有超过他们的基准。
So when we sit here and we debate about like, I'd rather own more meta than more, you know, Google or AlphaBetter, whatever, the index is going to figure out already for you. So you don't have to do that. So we're like, you know, why are we wasting all this time? At your point, there's all these other huge geopolitical opportunities happening right now where valuations are much lower and you don't have to think that hard. And I like not to think that hard. It's like my goal in life.
所以，当我们坐在这里讨论时，如果说我宁愿多持有Meta的股票而不是谷歌或者其他公司的股票，其实指数基金已经帮你做出了选择，你不需要自己去思考这些问题。所以我们会想，为什么要浪费时间纠结这些事情？正如你所说，现在全球还有很多巨大的地缘政治机遇，那里的估值要低得多，你不需要过于费神。而我就喜欢不费脑筋，这几乎是我人生的目标。
Yeah. So then let's go back to like the diversification part of it. And I guess the way, like on my head, I see that you probably look at it. The JP Morgan, like quarterly review slide deck. Yeah, right. That they update every quarter. Yeah. That is where I pull my favorite stat from, which is that on average, the S&P goes down at least 14% every year, peak to trough. Yep. And that's also the chart where I pull stocks usually go up because that's the one that shows. Goes back to like 83. And I think it's like every year except six, you have counter your gains, basically. Or, you know, not just counter your gains, counter your gains in excess of 10%. Et cetera. And there I'm seeing the investment quilt where every asset class is a different color. And you can track all the colors moving around. And commodities last year, right? Commodities, gold. All these things international, specifically, back at the top of the list after spending years just languishing in the bottom.
好的。那么我们回到多元化这一部分。我觉得在我看来你可能会参考JP摩根季度回顾的幻灯片，对吧？他们每季度都会更新。在这份幻灯片中，我找到了我最喜欢的一些统计数据。例如，标准普尔指数每年都会从最高点到最低点下跌至少14%。这同样是我找到股票通常会上涨的那个图表，它可以追溯到1983年。从那时起，几乎每年都会有收益超过10%的情况，只除了六年之外。还有"投资拼图"，每种资产类别都有不同的颜色。你可以追踪这些颜色的变动。去年，大宗商品和黄金等国际资产在长时间位于榜单底部后，重新回到了榜单的顶部。
Like do you look at that? And to your point, you're like, this is just going to come back to me. Like I can just be patient. And this shirt clearly shows a durable pattern over time where different assets outperform and I don't need to again, like worry too much about not having nailed every last inch of big tech leads the markets, which I think it did, you know, for three straight years. Yeah, I wish I could like say it's more complicated than that miles. It really isn't. It really isn't. And I think that's the other great thing about investing is the compounding effect. Right? If you look at international specifically, like to your point, you know, underperform every year and then it became obviously international is going to underperform until it didn't last year. I dramatically outperformed, but you know, you're getting three, four percent dividends for like over a decade. So that compounding effect is huge because you get one big move up in international markets like you did last year.
你看到了吗？就像你说的，这些都会回到我身上。我只需要耐心一点。这个图表清楚地显示了一种长期稳定的模式，其中不同的资产表现优异，而我也不需要再过于担心不能在科技股主导市场的时期抓住每一个上涨点，因为我觉得那种情况已经持续了三年。我希望能说这里面更复杂些，但事实并非如此。而且，关于投资的另一大好处就是复利效应。对吧？举国际市场为例，像你说的，可能每年表现不佳，但直到去年它突然表现出色。我明显跑赢了大市，而在此之前的十多年里，你每年能获得三到四个百分点的股息。这种复利效应非常强大，因为一旦国际市场有大的上升，比如去年那样，收益就会很可观。
And now you have all these shares you've been compounding so that returns, then came into overnight, it comes a big return. And I think I like that to me. That's like great investing. It's not trying to again try to figure out what's the hot momentum trade and how do you play that trade. And if that was that smart, you know, I'd be on my yacht, man. Right. You know, but I think it's really hard to figure that out. And I think people who actually do figure out a lot of times they get lucky. But yeah, but I think the fact that you just had such an underperform such a long period of time, the cyclicality says it's time for stuff to come back into favor. And again, like commodities, a great example, it's just the fact that so many commodities have been undermined for so long because that sector didn't do that well. But now there's this huge catch up, which makes all those investments that much more valuable as a buyer right now.
现在你拥有的这些股票通过复利增值，最终在某个夜晚带来了巨额回报。我喜欢这样的投资方式。这是一种伟大的投资，不是去追逐热门股票或尝试短期操作。如果我真那么聪明，我可能早就坐在自己的游艇上了。我认为很难预判这样的机会。有些人确实能判断出来，但这更多是运气。然而，当某个领域长期表现不佳时，周期性规律使得它有机会再次受欢迎。以大宗商品为例，过去由于行业表现不理想，很多大宗商品被低估，但现在情况反转，对于买家来说，这些投资的价值大大提升了。
All right, I want to spend some time talking actually just about your business and like the business of financial advising and the way that's changing. Yeah, right. No, I mean, like we could do investing all the time. We'll do investing tomorrow. We'll do it Friday, etc. So I'm just curious like for one, what millennial clients, let's say your clients under 45, like how that's different from older clients, what they're looking for and like what the shape of managing money is going to mean for like our peer set versus what I think our parents probably wanted. Yeah, yeah. Well, first of all, I think everyone eventually turns into their parents. I think if you look at millennials, it's the same. It's just the same stuff all the time. Well, kind of the kind of, because like I noticed the shift when millennials and oldest ones are in their 40s now, they start looking like their parents before that, right? The crypto trade obviously is a younger person's trade. There's not a lot of baby boomers calling me like, hey, like I need to get an Ethereum yesterday. Right? That just doesn't happen.
好的，我想花点时间实际讨论一下你的业务，特别是金融咨询行业及其变化。对，是的。我是说，我们可以随时进行投资，明天可以，周五也可以，等等。所以我很好奇，比如说对于千禧一代客户，也就是45岁以下的客户，他们和年长客户有何不同，他们在寻找什么，以及对我们这一代人来说，理财管理的意义如何，与我认为我们父母那一代人想要的有什么不同。嗯，首先，我认为每个人最终都会变得像他们的父母。我认为如果看看千禧一代，基本上情况是差不多的。因为我注意到，当千禧一代中年纪较大的那些人现在进入40多岁时，他们开始表现得像他们的父母。那么，比如加密货币交易显然是年轻人的领域，我几乎没有听过婴儿潮一代的人打电话给我说：“嘿，我昨天需要买以太坊。”对吧，这种情况基本上不会发生。
You see with most younger clients, they'll say they probably have a crypto portfolio. They're probably sad they have it right now because not doing so well. Wasn't the hedge that everyone promised that it would be. But I also think the other component right now it's really interesting is all this private credit that's been sold. And I've been doing this for 25 years. I think it's Jesse Livermore, the famous trader from the 20s, has a famous quote that was, there's no new errors on Wall Street. Stock speculations is older to the hills. So in my mind, whenever something new or something Advent Guard is happening in the market, I'm just like, okay, what in the past can we learn from this?
你会发现，大多数年轻客户通常都会有一个加密货币投资组合。然而，由于目前表现不佳，他们可能对这个投资感到失望。加密货币并没有像大家承诺的那样起到对冲作用。与此同时，现在有个很有趣的现象，就是市场上正在大量出售的私人信贷。我从事这个行业已经25年了，我想起20年代著名的交易员杰西·利弗莫尔的一句名言：华尔街没有新的错误，股票投机由来已久。因此，每当市场上出现新事物或前卫的东西时，我都会想，我们能从过去学到些什么呢？
And private credit has been pitched very hard to firms like mine. And I was just thinking, man, this reminds me so much of the real estate crisis when we had all those mortgage-backed securities where they love to sell you something that has a really high yield. And guess what? It doesn't price. So it doesn't feel like it's volatile, but it's just not priced. And there's like gates around when you can get your money out. And when you have ill-equity and retail clients, it's like the worst combination ever. So to me, I saw this happening a couple of years ago. I was like, oh, this is going to end up just like a way a lot of these other funds during the financial crisis ended up.
私人信贷一直在向像我们这样的公司大力推销。让我想起房地产危机时的情景，那时他们喜欢卖给你那些收益率非常高的抵押贷款支持证券。你猜怎么着？这些东西没有真实的市场价格。因此虽然表面上看起来不那么波动，但其实只是没有定价。而且，当你想取出资金时，还有各种限制。如果遇上流动性不足和散户投资者，那真是最糟糕的组合。几年前我看到这种情况时，就觉得这会和金融危机期间很多其他基金的结局一样。
Now, I don't think it's systemic for the whole financial industry. But anyways, in these funds, those things, that valuation is just going to keep just a rowing over time. It's going to keep just deflating, in my opinion. So I think there's a lot of. You guys didn't feel the need to then go and start stuffing client portfolios with a bunch of this stuff and didn't feel like that had to become whatever, a 10, 15% part. Unless I mean, people can ask for it. You can go and do it. But it wasn't like, seems like you didn't sit there, get the pitch and say, you know what? You guys are right. I'm going to totally reshape how I put my standard client into some of this stuff.
现在，我不认为这是整个金融行业的系统性问题。但无论如何，在这些基金中，那些东西的估值只是会随着时间不断下降。在我看来，它会持续贬值。因此，我认为有很多这种东西。你们并没有觉得需要马上去为客户的投资组合塞满这些东西，也没觉得这类资产需要占据投资组合的10%或15%。除非有人特别要求，否则你可以去做。但似乎你们没有在听完推介后就决定大幅调整客户的标准投资组合，加入这些东西。
Whenever I hear something that was for institutions is now for you, walk away, run away from the table because you know it's not going to end well. So yeah, so to me, it just felt very much like a lot of what we saw during the financial crisis. And that's where the scars in my back come from. Yeah. Going through a great financial crisis. Going back to this generational, generations of investing, you have two generations now, Gen Z and Gen millennials that didn't go through the financial crisis or they weren't old enough to experience it with actually money to work.
每当我听到什么东西以前是给机构用的，现在是给个人用的，我会赶快离开，因为这通常不会有好结果。所以对我来说，这让我想起了很多金融危机中的情景，这也是为什么我对此深有体会。经历过一次重大金融危机，对投资的不同世代产生了影响。现在的Z世代和千禧一代中，有许多人没有亲身经历过金融危机，或者当时年纪太小，没有足够的资金参与其中。
I started my firm during the financial crisis. So I acutely remember exactly how that transpired. So no one really understands, you've got a lot of investors that don't really understand what a credit crisis looks like. We haven't had one since then, probably have one at some point in the future, they always happen. So I think there's still a lot of naive tape that maybe around some of the younger investors. Yeah, I was going to say, do you feel like there are conversations that you have with, again, a younger client that maybe they're just unrealistic about what you say to them, like, okay, we're going to do this at the other and we think 7% 8% is like a nice bogey and they're like, that's it.
我在金融危机期间创办了我的公司，因此我对当时的情况记忆犹新。然而，很多投资者其实并不真正理解信用危机是怎样的。自那时以来，我们还没有经历过这样的一次危机，但可能在未来的某个时候还会发生，因为这种情况总是会重演。我认为，一些年轻的投资者可能仍然存在一些天真的想法。我想问一下，你是否在与年轻客户谈话时，感受到他们对你所说的内容抱有不切实际的期望？比如，你告诉他们计划实现年化7%或8%的回报，他们却觉得这不够。
I was told there would be much more than that in terms of returns. We feel like there's an unrealistic expectation from a lot of folks in that 35 to 45 bucket around what you can get from any kind of financial asset, obviously stock market or primary among them. 100%. And the only way they're going to learn is to actually go through some sort of financial crisis. The old saying is all the sheep will be shorn. So I just think it's got to happen, deverage generation. For the baby boomers, it was when the tech bubble burst. I'm technically on the Cusp Gen X. So I really experienced the financial crisis. As well, I actually got in right at the, we're in the bubble burst, the tech bubble.
有人告诉我，收益会比这多得多。我们觉得，许多年龄在35到45岁之间的人对从各种金融资产（尤其是股票市场）中获得的收益有不切实际的期望。毫无疑问，唯一能让他们真正学习到的是经历某种金融危机。有句老话说，所有的羊都会被剪毛。我认为这种情况是必然会发生的，是去杠杆化的一代。对于婴儿潮一代来说，这种情况发生在科技泡沫破裂的时候。我自己技术上属于X世代，但我真正感受到金融危机。我也是在科技泡沫破裂时进入市场的。
So I'd actually been through two big crises and also like, you can't compare that to the pandemic. Yeah. That was like an engineered shutdown. They added stimulus right away. It's not the same thing as a real credit crisis. Like that's not the same thing. You have an experienced real pain. I don't believe it. Yeah. Well, it does feel like, and I look at the market, you know, not to make it like two day to day, but whatever. That's the world I live in. I was talking to whether it's the folks here, like texting my buddies yesterday, the way the market behaved with like a couple of headlines that had sort of been recycled, but were kind of new on like, there might be an end to this.
所以我实际上经历了两次大的危机，但这和疫情是没法比的。疫情就像是一次人为的停摆，他们立刻增加了刺激措施。这和真正的信贷危机不是一回事。那不是真正的痛苦经历。我不相信这两者是一样的。是的，虽然现在看起来，尤其是当我观察市场的时候，也不想把事情搞得过于细碎，但这就是我生活的世界。我昨天和这里的人们或者给我的朋友们发短信，市场的反应就像是对一些好像已经被反复提及但又有点新意的新闻做出的，而这些新闻可能暗示这场危机可能会结束。
The market was just ripping. I mean, as the NASDAQ's up 3%, and there's so much memory, it feels like whether it's from, you know, pod shops, which are a big part of that kind of marginal bid, which are mostly staffed by millennials at this point. And then also the retail millennial bid to your point that hasn't seen a prolonged downturn other than 2022. And it's like any sign of anything positive, it's like buy everything. Buy everything by the worst things, actually. That's where all the opportunity is. And there's just such an ingrained like caught, like call and response. It feels like with within the market, but then I think even probably broader.
市场表现非常强劲。我是说，纳斯达克上涨了3%，而且记忆犹新的是，这种增长是否来自一些投资公司，它们是这种边际买入的重要组成部分，目前大多数员工都是千禧一代。此外，还有你提到的零售领域的千禧一代买家，他们除了在2022年外，没有经历过长时间的市场低迷。就像是任何一点积极的信号出来时，就会有买入一切的行为出现。甚至是买入最差的东西，因为机会就在那些地方。市场中似乎存在一种根深蒂固的反应，就好像是条件反射一样，我觉得这种情况可能在更广泛的范围内也存在。
Like people are going to say, oh, well, the market rebounded after this and that. And you might have a meeting set with them for six weeks from now. And they're going to bring that up. They're like, hey, markets ready to rip. Like what are we doing here? And I feel like that's probably a different conversation than it is with a different kind of client who's seen a different amount of cycles. Yeah, I think the old saying is there's old pilots and there's bold pilots, but there's no old bold pilots. And I think like you see that overconfident. Every millennial is maverick now, I guess. Well, he's maybe he's both, I think.
就像人们会说，哦，好吧，市场在某事之后反弹了。而且你可能和他们约好了六周后的会议，他们会提到这一点。他们会说，嘿，市场准备大涨了，我们要怎么应对？我觉得这和那些经历过不同市场周期的客户的对话是不同的。我认为有句老话说：有年长的飞行员和大胆的飞行员，但没有年长而大胆的飞行员。我觉得现在你可以看到那种过度自信。每个千禧一代好像都变成了"壮志凌云"里的那种飞行员。我想，他可能两者兼具。
Maybe that's the point of the movie. That's a great analogy. Yeah, but I think that's so much true though. Yeah, 100%. Yeah. So I'm curious another part of this, and this is, I'm not just pumping you for information, but I'm like, okay, so I have learned about costs as the only thing that matters, right? Or it feels to me, like I don't have any edge investing wise. Only thing I care about is like I'm just going to get the cheapest thing I can. And that is how I'm going to essentially generate my personal alpha, right? By the S&P for the least amount of cost.
也许这就是电影的重点。这是个很棒的比喻。是的，但我觉得这非常有道理。是的，100%同意。所以我很好奇这个话题中的另一部分，我并不是单纯想从你那获取信息，而是我最近了解到成本好像是唯一重要的事情。又或者我觉得自己在投资方面没有什么优势。对我来说，唯一关心的就是拿到最便宜的东西。通过这种方式，我希望能够在个人投资中创造出超额收益。比如，以最低的成本买入标普500指数基金。
Do millennial clients have any different expectations or young clients around what you're charging them for your services? How do they think about just how do they think about the role that financial advisors play in their lives? Because, you know, I mean, my dad is old enough to remember, you got a call of a broker and it's 10 bucks to do a trade. And now it's like, that's crazy. And that all goes downstream, I think, to, you know, to your firm and you're in the part of the business that's growing the fastest as well. Like that advisory piece of Wall Street is the fastest growing thing that's out there.
千禧一代客户或年轻客户在您对他们的服务收费方面有不同的期望吗？他们如何看待财务顾问在他们生活中所扮演的角色？因为你知道，我的父亲还记得过去打电话给经纪人做一笔交易要花10美元，而现在想想这就太不可思议了。这种变化影响到您的公司，尤其是在您所在的业务快速增长的部分。而华尔街的顾问这一块是当前增长最快的领域。
So I'm just curious if at all this is, I don't know, just a different mind. A mindset or resistance you see from filter, how you've changed your approach to these conversations. Yeah, no, no, it's a good question too, because I feel like, you know, you have two kind of buckets of advisors. You have ones that are maybe pitching on performance, alpha. And again, the dirty secret of our industry is, well, you can buy an index and it performs 90% of the fund managers, which I always love on some broke old school brokers, I guess, a stock strategy.
所以，我只是有些好奇，不知道这是否只是换了个思维方式。也许你在面对这种态度或抗拒时，改变了与他人交流的方式。是的，这确实是个好问题，因为我觉得，咨询顾问可以分成两类。你会遇到那些可能专注于业绩，专注于超额收益（Alpha）的顾问。而且，不可否认的行业秘密是，你可以买指数基金，而它的表现能超过90%的基金经理，这总让我对一些依赖旧有股票策略的老派经纪人感到好笑。
I'm like, okay, that's the dude or do that. That's going to outperform the index. Like he's one has that inside information or that inside, gifted insight, we'll call it, not inside information. But I think that's a very hard value ad because then that's when you start pitching some of these more exotic products like private credit that you're getting 10% on, you know, where you're really predicated on performance. And I think it's a dangerous game to play. And I think that's one type of firm, the other firm, which essentially is where I've run money.
我觉得，那家伙或那伙人就是能够跑赢指数的人。他们拥有那种类似“天赋洞察力”的东西，而不是内幕消息。但我认为，这种价值增值是非常困难的，因为这时候你就会开始推出一些更复杂的产品，比如能获得10%收益的私人信贷产品，这类产品非常依赖于表现。我认为这是一场危险的游戏。不过，这是一类公司，还有另一类公司，基本上就是我管理资金的地方。
I started one of the big wire houses, Merrill Lynch back in the day, which kind of exists as Bank of America now. They went out business. I love to date themselves by referring it to as Merrill instead of V.E.V. Even though it's been V.E.V. Merrill for like 15 years at this point, but you can sound cool by referring to Merrill and stuff. I just make it feel old. Yeah. That doesn't exist anymore, right? That's like I was at, you know, EF Hutton or whatever. Right. So, first boss then guy.
我当年是从一家大型证券公司美林证券开始的，那时候的美林在业内很有名，现在基本上是美洲银行的一部分了。美林原来倒闭了。我喜欢通过称呼它为“美林”而不是“V.E.V.”来证明自己更“资深”。尽管已经有大概15年，美林一直被称作“V.E.V.美林”，但把它叫作“美林”听起来比较酷，只是会显得有些过时。就像我说自己曾在EF Hutton工作过一样。对的，那时候的第一任老板就是这样。
Yeah. So I started there. I left it in the summer of 08, then Merrill Lynch went out of business and that fall. So it was clear because I left the firm. Bad joke. But I think the real value ad for as an advisor is giving holistic, which is kind of overused financial advice. Like people want, they want real advice on their money. Like they want retirement projections run. They want to figure out how might invest my money? How is it quarterly to my goals? You know, what are all the other fats of my financial life that need to be addressed?
好的。我是从那儿开始的。我在08年夏天离开了，不久后，美林证券就在那个秋天倒闭了。所以很明显，这是因为我离开了公司（开个玩笑）。但我认为，作为顾问，真正的价值在于提供全面的，也许有点被过度使用的财务建议。大家真正需要的是关于他们钱的实际建议，比如他们想要了解退休规划预测，想弄清楚如何投资他们的钱，与他们的目标如何保持一致，还有他们财务生活中所有需要解决的问题。
So it becomes a very, very, someone's like the Ritz Carlton of your money. You know, you want somebody who's like very, very service-oriented and actually most of my advisors are millennials, which is an old industry. Like it's 100,000 advisors like me, older dudes that are going to retire in the next 10 years. So there's actually really like a big gap in terms of employment there. But I think the bottom line is if you're not giving real holistic financial advice, then you got to justify your fee. And that's a hard place to be. But if you're actually giving that real advice on their money and also just like simple diversification, like how many people have commodities or energy infrastructure in their portfolio, which is a cheap hedge, by the way. I buy them as ETFs.
所以，这就成了一个非常非常像“丽思卡尔顿”般的服务，针对你的钱财。你知道的，你会希望有人提供非常以服务为导向的帮助。实际上，我大多数顾问都是千禧一代，而这是个相对老旧的行业。有大约10万名像我这样的顾问，这些年长者将在未来十年内退休。所以在就业方面实际上有很大的人才缺口。但我认为关键是，如果你没有提供真正全面的财务建议，那么你就得为你的收费找理由。这是个困难的处境。但如果你确实提供实质性的建议，比如对他们的钱进行简单的多样化，比如有多少人在他们的投资组合中持有商品或能源基础设施，这其实是一种便宜的对冲手段。我通过ETF购买这些。
Yeah. And then all these other people are going on buying like private credit and all these quote, unquote alternatives, which are supposed to be hedges when the market goes down and they're even more of a disaster. So I think it really is about like the foresight with your process and you know, how it ties into again your goals. And I think that people like put a shingle out there as they do financial planning like every insurance person. Yeah. But they don't really do it. They just want to sell you a product and charge you a commission like you said. Yeah. So that's like the difference. And I think that's where you're really impactful. You need to do a great job for people versus like you're just a product salesman selling something for commission, hoping to get paid.
好的。然后，其他人纷纷购买私人信贷和所谓的另类投资，这些本来是市场下跌时的对冲工具，但现在却更糟糕。所以，我觉得这真的关乎你在过程中的远见，以及如何再次与目标相结合。我认为有些人就像那些做财务规划的人一样，挂个牌子出来。是的，每个卖保险的人都这样，但他们实际上并没有真正做财务规划，他们只是想卖给你产品然后收取佣金，就像你说的那样。是的，这就是区别所在。我认为这就是你的影响力所在：你需要为客户做好服务，而不是仅仅为了佣金而推销产品，希望能得到报酬。
Well, it's like one of these things where you know, you'd be surprised how many people send their kids to private school, but like haven't really thought about how that's going to impact them financially or like, you know, like, okay, you can afford that now. Can you afford that for like the next nine years when this is like a million dollar tab over this and that of time or it's stuff like you drive around. You're like, how does everyone afford these cars? And I'm always like, they don't. They just buy stuff they can't afford. And so it's like a lot of people probably just need someone to be like, hey, let's be realistic. Like, here's the cash in, here's the cash out. And if you're spending this, that the other on, you know, this, that and the other, like you might not have as much leftovers, you think.
这就像是这样的情况，你知道，你会惊讶于有多少人把孩子送到私立学校，但并没有真正考虑到这对他们的经济状况会产生怎样的影响。就像，你现在可以负担得起，但接下来的九年呢？如果这期间需要花费上百万美元，该怎么办？或者说，你在路上看到很多人开着好车，就会想，他们是怎么负担得起这些车的？实际上，他们买的往往是自己负担不起的东西。所以很多人可能需要有人来提醒他们，保持现实一点。比如，看看自己的收入和支出，如果你在这方面、那方面花了很多钱，可能最后剩下的钱就没你想的那么多了。
I think the nominal dollar game of like, I make whatever the high number is. And at the end of the day, I've got a much lower number than I thought. Some people just, or feels like a lot of people just can't get their heads around that kind of math. That's really, you know, something that this younger generation that has a lot higher nominal incomes than their parents did. Like, a lot of people just, you just need to hear that of like, hey, this isn't going to go as far as you think that's okay. But like these are the decisions that are available to you.
我觉得这个涉及名义美元的游戏就像：我赚的金额看起来很高，但到头来却比我想象的要少得多。有些人，或者说很多人，就是无法理解这种计算方式。尤其是现在的年轻一代，他们的名义收入比父母那一代要高得多。很多人需要意识到这一点：嘿，你的钱可能没有你想象的那么多，但这没关系。重要的是，这些都是你可以做出的选择。
Yeah, I think that's part of it also. It's just like exploiting every tax strategy available to you. There's so many simple things you can do for a tax perspective. It's like, you know, Roth conversions back to a Roths, you know, okay, if you're, you know, there's more small businesses opening every day in this country, about their record high for that. Like, what kind of plan can you set up for your business? Right? So there's just a lot of things you can do from a tax perspective that aren't complicated, that aren't illiquid products that these big brokers from going to sell you, that you can solve a lot of these problems.
是的，我认为这也是其中的一部分。就像是利用所有可用的税务策略。有很多简单的方法可以从税务角度出发进行操作。比如说，将传统退休账户转换为罗斯退休账户。如果你开始经营一家小企业，现在这个国家每天都有创纪录数量的新小企业开张，那你可以为你的企业制定什么样的计划呢？因此，从税务角度来看，有很多不复杂的方法，不涉及那些大经纪公司会卖给你的不流动产品，而这些方法可以帮助你解决很多问题。
So I just love a simple versus a complex solution. And to your point, just like figuring out how much you need to be saved. What's your saving strategy at miles? Mine. Yeah, I'm curious. Well, right now, so right now we're saving for a house project. So it's basically as much cash as possible after you max out your 401k. And we actually, I've actually switching away from a Roth to, to, you know, like, there are some, that's like a very simple minor tax thing you do. I've only ever been Roth, but I've kind of looked at it. We've got hiring earner now, right?
我更喜欢简单的解决方案，而不是复杂的。就像你提到的，弄清楚你需要储蓄多少。你的储蓄策略是什么，Miles？我的呢，我很好奇。那么，现在我们正在为一个房屋项目储蓄。所以在最大限度地缴纳401k后，就是尽可能多地储蓄现金。另外，我其实正在从Roth账户转向其他一些账户，这是一个非常简单的小税务策略。我以前一直用Roth，但现在看看我们的收入水平有所提高。
Yeah, well, it's like books now. Right. So you're trying to find ways to, to, you know, to double, double W2 household. And it's like, yeah, and we own one house. So there's nothing that I can really do outside of like very small, you know, whether it's an FSA kind of thing. We kind of export HSA, but I don't know, the two little kids, whatever. But yeah, same as much money as possible. And then in three years, take the whole back of the house off.
是的，就像现在的书籍一样，对吧。所以你在想办法，希望能让家庭收入增加一倍。我们的情况是，我们只有一套房子。所以我也只能在一些很小的事情上尝试，比如FSA（灵活支出账户）或者HSA（健康储蓄账户），不太确定，毕竟有两个小孩子。但总而言之，就尽可能多地存钱，然后三年后，把房子的后部全部改造。
Yeah, I hope that like the world is fine. I guess that's just tragic. But that's good. You got more out of me than anybody else has, of course. Now the audience knows what's going on with me. Unfortunately, we'll leave it there. Ryan Payne is the president of Payne Capital Management, also hosts the pain points of wealth podcast. Ryan, thanks so much for stopping by. This is a lot of fun. Good to hear about. Thanks, man. Great. All right. Coming up next on Yahoo Finance, we have Brian Sazi and opening bid. Much more come here on the first day of the second quarter of 2026.
是的，我希望世界一切安好。我觉得这真是个悲剧。但这挺好的，你比任何人都更多地了解我。当然，现在观众们也知道我发生了什么。不幸的是，我们就到这里吧。瑞安·佩恩是佩恩资本管理公司的总裁，也是《痛点财富》播客的主持人。瑞安，非常感谢你的到来。这次交流很愉快，很高兴了解这些。谢谢你，伙计。太好了。好的。接下来在雅虎财经节目中，我们将看到布莱恩·萨齐和开盘竞标。更多精彩内容将在2026年第二季度的第一天呈现。
It's funny. So my good Wednesday morning. Welcome to opening bid. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi, coming to you live from our New York City headquarters studios, actually in our studio today. Here's what's on my mind right now. The word of the day, at least for right now, is optimism in the markets. That after President Trump suggested the war on Iran can end within three weeks. The president's slated to address the nation at nine p.m. today. Markets around the world, trading with a bullish bias in the wake of these comments from the president.
这很有趣。早上好，今天是美好的星期三。欢迎收看“开盘竞价。”我是雅虎财经的执行主编布莱恩·萨兹，今天我是真的在我们纽约市总部的演播室现场播报。现在，我脑子里想的事情是，至少目前为止的关键词是市场的乐观情绪。这是因为特朗普总统暗示与伊朗的战争可能会在三周内结束。总统计划在今天晚上九点发表全国讲话。在他发表这些评论后，全球市场交易呈现出乐观的倾向。
I caution you though that if you are one of these bulls, this is a news-driven market. And the news in Iran is literally changing every 10 minutes or so. It seems I didn't like the quarter or outlook out of Nike last night. Meanwhile, more on the stock plunge shortly. And mag seven bulls enter the second quarter bruised after steep pullbacks in the first quarter. Oracle's mass layoffs and botched job on the messaging don't exactly swing bullish for the mag seven trade out of the gate in the quarter. At least that is my opinion.
不过，我要提醒你，如果你是看涨的一方，目前的市场是由新闻推动的。而且伊朗的新闻几乎每10分钟就会发生变化。好像我昨晚对耐克的季度业绩或前景不太满意。同时，稍后会详细讨论股票暴跌。对"魔法七牛"而言，在第一季度大幅回调后，进入第二季度时已经受挫不小。甲骨文的大规模裁员和失败的消息传递在这个季度初对"魔法七"的交易并不看好。至少这是我的看法。
On the open to bid round table today, Peter Berzen, BCI research chief, global strategist and director of research, Adam Coons, Winthrop Capital Chief and Investment Officer and Yahoo Finance senior reporter. And as for right, and as I want to get over to you out of the block here, eyes remain fixed on oil. We still oil trade off on these comments from the president. What's the latest here? Right. The president saying that it could be another two to three weeks, also indicating that Iran wants a ceasefire and that the US would be willing if the Strait of Hormuz were to be open.
在今天的竞价圆桌会议上，Peter Berzen（BCI研究主管、全球策略师和研究总监）、Adam Coons（Winthrop Capital首席和投资官）以及Yahoo财经高级记者都在场。当前大家的关注点仍然是石油市场。由于总统的讲话，石油交易出现了波动。请问，现在的最新情况是什么？总统表示可能还需要两到三周的时间，同时还提到伊朗希望实现停火，并表示如果霍尔木兹海峡能开放，美国会愿意配合。
And that is really the question here, whether or not the Strait of Hormuz will be open if the US decides to pull out of this war. And you're seeing oil prices right now that are slightly lower, but they're still around $100 a barrel. You have B.A.V. that came out with a note this morning that is saying that they are seeing a mild stagflation, the risk of mild stagflation, if oil stays around $100 for the rest of the year, which is their base case. And that is if the ending fights by the end of April.
这就是问题的关键：如果美国决定退出战争，霍尔木兹海峡是否会保持开放。目前油价稍微下降，但仍然在每桶100美元左右。B.A.V.今天早上发布了一份报告，指出如果全年油价保持在100美元左右，他们预期会出现轻度滞胀的风险，这也是他们的基本判断，前提是战争在四月底结束。
Peter, let me get over to you here. Let's say the president comes out today at 9 PM and says we're about near the end of this war. I guess the economy goes back to what happened to be prior to the war, re-accelerate, stocks go hit new records, right? Maybe not. I mean, the problem is that the president has been declaring victory now for three weeks. It's really more of a question of what the Iranians are going to do. They clearly want to avoid a situation where they get bombed six months from now, especially after the midterms.
彼得，让我跟你说说这样一种情况。假设总统今晚9点公布，我们快要结束这场战争了。我想经济会回到战前的状态，再次加速发展，股市创下新高，对吗？可能不会。问题在于，总统已经连续三周宣布胜利了。关键其实在于伊朗会怎么回应。他们显然想避免在六个月后，尤其是中期选举后，被轰炸的局面。
So they feel that they need to send a message that, listen, you know, if this happens again, we're going to close this strait again. And what's complicating the situation is that there's probably no real true leader within Iran now. There's just a lot of infighting within the upper circles. And the problem is that when you have that, to become the leader, you need to sound tough. And you don't sound tough by saying, okay, we're going to do what the Americans want. So I suspect that this is going to drag on for a while longer.
所以，他们觉得有必要传达一个信息：听着，如果这种情况再发生，我们会再次关闭海峡。复杂的是，现在伊朗内部似乎没有一个真正的领袖。上层圈子里充满了内部斗争。问题在于，在这种情况下，要成为领袖，就需要让自己听起来很强硬。而说“好吧，我们会按美国人说的做”是不会显得强硬的。因此，我怀疑这种情况还会持续一段时间。
Peter, what has been the damage to the economy because of high oil prices and in terms of consumer sentiment as it relates to this war? I mean, so far it's not visible in the data, but you wouldn't expect it to be that visible yet. We know that this is going to have a major impact on the economy. Gasoline prices are up a dollar. Diesel prices are up about $1.70 per gallon. And that's going to affect everything from the cost of transport to other important expenses that households face, fertilizer prices are going up.
彼得，由于高油价对经济造成了哪些损害，以及消费者情绪在这场战争中的反应如何？目前这些影响在数据中还不太明显，但你也不应该期望它们立刻显现。我们知道这对经济将产生重大影响。汽油价格上涨了一美元，柴油价格每加仑上涨约1.70美元。这将影响从运输成本到家庭面临的其他重要开支，化肥价格也在上涨。
So this is going to weigh on the economy. And at a time when the economy was not particularly strong to begin with, outside of health care, we've barely had any job growth now for 12 months. Adam, let me get over to you here. What do you think this means? Let's take the president on face value that the war will end within three weeks. What does this mean for the outlook for rate cuts or rate hikes in this country from the Fed? Yeah. I mean, I think if we really do get at least a tapering here, it probably means that we're not going to see much out of the Fed either way.
这将对经济产生影响。而且在经济本来就不是特别强劲的时刻，除了医疗保健领域之外，我们在过去12个月里几乎没有任何工作增长。亚当，我来问问你的看法。假设总统所说的战争会在三周内结束，这对于美联储在本国的加息或降息前景意味着什么？是的，我认为如果我们真的至少看到削弱态势的话，可能意味着美联储的行动不会有太大变化。
Obviously, we've got a little bit of an issue where we're going to get a change of the Fed chairman with Powell leaving. But any short term blips with inflation, I think the Fed's going to overlook. They understand that, you know, energy prices that obviously have a vast impact. But it probably would be short term if this really does end soon. But like you guys are just saying, it is very unlikely that that's going to happen. So there's a good chance that this extends inflation and possibly the stack inflation, I agree with that extends. And that would really put the Fed in a difficult position. And as I do wonder, you know, going back to what you said about stack inflation, I'm on board with you. I think it's really right.
很明显，我们面临一个小问题，就是美联储主席鲍威尔将要离任，这将带来一些变化。但我认为美联储会忽略任何短期的通胀波动。他们明白，能源价格显然有很大影响，但如果情况真的很快结束，这可能也是短期的。不过，正如你们所说，这种情况不太可能发生。所以很有可能这会延长通胀，并可能导致滞胀，我同意这种延长的看法。这确实会让美联储陷入一个困难的境地。我也在想，回到你刚才提到的滞胀问题，我完全同意你的看法。
What does this mean that gold trade comes back into focus? It does. I mean, oh, sorry. Go ahead, Ness. Oh, yeah, definitely Wall Street is saying that they are seeing gold going higher. I mean, what you saw in gold till over the last month, okay? There was a liquidation. There was a sell off. But they're saying from here, it's going to go higher. And they're also expecting that the Fed will need to turn dovesh at some point, that at some point, this is going to be about a growth story and that you're going to see a softening labor market.
黄金交易重新成为关注焦点是什么意思？确实如此。我是说，哦，抱歉。请继续，Ness。哦，是的，华尔街明确表示他们看好黄金价格会走高。过去一个月黄金经历了一波抛售和清仓。但他们表示，从现在开始，黄金价格将会上涨。他们还预计，美联储将需要在某个时候转向鸽派政策，届时这将与经济增长有关，并且劳动力市场将会趋于疲软。
You've got Goldman Sachs that's still expecting two rate cuts by the end of this year, a total of 50 basis point because they are saying that you're seeing a softening labor market. And if the Fed has to choose, they're going to choose that. At a max seven, didn't have a good first quarter in video, didn't, didn't do great despite Glitz, EGTC. Gold didn't do good. I mean, these were trades that dominated 2025. If this board does end, should investors go back to these names that work so well last year here in the second quarter? I mean, they should be giving it a hard look.
你看，高盛公司预计今年年底之前会有两次降息，总共50个基点，因为他们认为劳动力市场正在走软。如果美联储需要做出选择，他们会选择降息。而在Max七号季度视频中，第一季度表现不佳，尽管有Glitz和EGTC的辅助，市场表现仍旧不理想。黄金也表现不好。这些交易在2025年占据了主导地位。如果这个趋势结束，投资者是否应该在第二季度重新关注去年表现良好的这些股票？我认为他们确实应该认真考虑一下。
I think the difference this year from last year is that it's not going to be a market where high tide is lift all boats. So there aren't going to be this vast, you know, winning pool of AI players. It's something like a video, obviously, it is big in the space. So probably be a winner. There's some other names we like. I think if you go down the chain and start looking at different software names, those have really been beaten up and they were all kind of beaten up the same way, even though they're not all the same.
我认为今年和去年相比，市场的变化在于，不再是大潮来时所有船都能浮起。因此，不会出现遍地开花的AI赢家。像Nvidia这样的公司显然在这个领域中占据重要地位，所以可能会成为赢家。我们还有一些其他看好的公司。我觉得如果你深入研究不同的软件公司，会发现它们的股票普遍被打压了，虽然它们各不相同，但都经历了类似的困境。
And we do think that there are some AI stories where, you know, it actually is an enhancement to the business model. Not death to the business model. So I think you look for those names and those of a venture would be the winner. I think volatility is here to stay for the near term. So it's not going to be this just rock it up. If we do get some reprieve in the conflict, I think there's still many, many things outside of it. Obviously, there's focus on this conflict in the Middle East, but there's still a lot of other economic and kind of macro issues that I think are going to add to volatility this year.
我们确实认为有些人工智能的应用故事实际上可以提升商业模式，而不是对商业模式造成冲击。因此，我觉得可以关注那些有望成功的企业和项目。我认为短期内市场的波动性将继续存在，所以不是一帆风顺的上升趋势。如果冲突有所缓和，我认为仍然会有很多其他的因素影响。显然，人们关注中东地区的冲突，但除此之外，还有很多其他经济和宏观问题会在今年增加市场的波动性。
Peter, you've written a lot about how AI is powering the economy. I think you just wrote about it in your latest aloe piece that I really, really enjoyed. On the one hand, we had Oracle sending people 20 to 30,000 people reportedly emails at 6 a.m. say, hey, you're fired. Get your ass out of the building. That was yesterday. That continues here today. But they had open AI, open AI raise what, $122 billion, largest ever capital raise in Silicon Valley. What is the state of AI growth in this country? At the same time, we were still going through a war. Is it continuing at the pace it was last year?
彼得，你写了很多关于人工智能如何推动经济发展的文章。我非常喜欢你最近在《芦荟》杂志上发表的那篇文章。一方面，据报道，甲骨文公司给2万到3万人在早上6点发邮件通知他们被解雇，必须马上离开公司。这件事昨天发生，今天仍在继续。但与此同时，OpenAI筹集了大约1220亿美元的资金，这是硅谷有史以来最大的一次融资。在这个国家，人工智能的发展现状如何？同时，我们也在经历一场战争。它的发展速度是否如去年一样？
I think investors are becoming increasingly worried about the magnitude of the spending on data centers. In Oracle's case, it's a real concern because Oracle now is negative free cash flow. They're spending more money on catbacks than they're generating and operating earnings. And so they're increasingly reliant on external finance.
我认为投资者越来越担心数据中心支出规模。在甲骨文的情况下，这确实是个问题，因为甲骨文现在的自由现金流为负。他们在资本支出上的花费超过了他们的经营收益。所以，他们越来越依赖外部融资。
Yeah, let me, I think Peter, we briefly lost your audio, Peter. Let me get over to Adam. Peter was talking about Oracle and these mass layoffs. Is that a warning sign that the mag seven sell off that we saw in the first quarter? That is justified here at current levels. Well, I'm going to go back to, I think it is stock and company specific. Oracle is its own kind of animal. And that was a stock that we saw. I really hype up what they were going to do and how they were going to do it.
好的，让我来看看。我想彼得的音频刚才短暂中断了，让我们转到亚当这边。彼得刚才在讲的是甲骨文公司和他们的大规模裁员。这是否是一个警示信号，表明我们在第一季度看到的"七巨头"的抛售是合理的？我想，就我个人而言，这与特定的股票和公司有关。甲骨文是一个独特的存在。我们看到这只股票当时真的非常炒作他们的计划和执行方式。
And then, you know, it's the worst thing you can do on Wall Street, which is over promise and under deliver. And that's what they did. And you saw this, that was one of the first stocks to sell off. They're raising a lot of debt and they were already fairly levered coming into this cycle. So I think that there are one off story that, and I think you're going to have other one off stories like that, but I don't think you want to kind of loop them all in together.
然后，你知道的，这是你在华尔街上能做的最糟糕的事情，就是夸下海口却无法兑现诺言。而他们正是这么做的。你们也看到，这是最早抛售的股票之一。他们正在大举举债，而原本进入这个周期时就已经有相当高的杠杆率了。所以我认为这就是一个个别案例，我觉得你会看到其他类似的个案，但我不认为你应该把它们全部混为一谈。
Oracle has a lot of headwinds. So it's one I would stay away from, but I think there are other opportunities where they said this is just really a story with Oracle and some other specific kind of AI stocks that have kind of like said done that over promise under deliver. And as I don't think Oracle's done here, it's a company that had what, over 160,000 employees, their powering AI, I think they're just getting started on how many people they're going to lay off. And especially as they try to now focus more on their free cash.
甲骨文公司面临很多阻力，所以我会远离它。但我认为还有其他投资机会。甲骨文和一些特定的AI股票有些过度承诺但未能兑现的情况。我不认为甲骨文已经完蛋了，这家公司拥有超过16万名员工，并且在推动AI的发展，我觉得他们的裁员才刚刚开始。特别是当他们现在更加关注自身的自由现金流时，这一点尤为重要。
But I know you're also taking a look at all things Polymarket this morning. Yeah, so I was taking a look at all things Polymarket with respect to the S&P 500 Bitcoin and also gold, as you mentioned earlier. And if you take a look at what betters are expecting for this year, they're expecting gold to outperform the S&P 500 and also a Bitcoin. So they're expecting gold and look, you've got 18% that is saying that the S&P 500 is going to outperform this year.
好的，我知道你今天早上也在关注Polymarket的一切。是的，我正在研究与S&P 500指数、比特币和黄金有关的所有事情，正如你之前提到的那样。如果你看看赌客们对今年的预期，他们认为黄金的表现会比S&P 500指数和比特币更好。所以他们预计黄金会表现突出，并且有18%的人认为S&P 500指数今年会表现更好。
So it's interesting that as you're talking about this broader theme, about the Mag 7, about tech, which makes up so much of the S&P 500 that there is not that much optimism that that will do better these of these gold or Bitcoin. Peter, let me get back to you. I think we got your audio sorted out here. If I read your note correctly, you're still are you still looking for the S&P 500 to finish the year lower compared to where it is today?
您提到的这个更广泛的话题很有意思，涉及到"Mag 7"和科技板块，而科技占据了标普500指数的很大一部分。但人们对其表现会超过黄金或比特币的乐观情绪并不多。彼得，我想回到您这边。我想现在我们的音频问题解决了。如果我没理解错的话，您是否仍然认为标普500指数年底的收盘水平会低于今天的水平？
Well, I mean, I wrote that the S&P was due for a bounce and we've seen a bit of a bounce, but I do think that it's a bit like a ball bouncing down a set of steps. It's going to end up lower in the end, even if it temporarily goes higher. Because I do think that A, the economy is weak and probably going to weaken further and B, the whole AI trade is starting to unravel. We saw that with software. I think increasingly we're going to see it with hardware as investors reach the conclusion that we can have an AI powered world without trillions of dollars and data center spending.
好吧，我的意思是，我之前写过标普指数会有反弹，现在我们确实看到了一些反弹。但我认为这有点像一个球在楼梯上弹跳，虽然会暂时升高，但最终会落得更低。因为我觉得，第一，经济疲软，可能会进一步恶化；第二，整个人工智能的市场交易开始瓦解。我们已经在软件领域看到了这一点。我认为，随着投资者意识到我们可以在没有数万亿美元和数据中心开支的情况下构建一个由人工智能驱动的世界，硬件领域也会越来越明显地出现这种情况。
Peter, if you've done a lot of work on how AI is impacting jobs, we're going to get this job support later this week. I've been reading a lot of surveys that are suggesting more corporate use of AI in the workforce. This comes alongside. You see big tech driving a lot of layouts. I think this is a tip of the iceberg. How severe could the job loss be as a result of AI?
彼得，如果你已经研究了很多关于人工智能对就业影响的工作，我们将于本周晚些时候得到这方面的工作支持。我读过很多调查，这些调查显示更多公司在职场中使用人工智能。同时，你也会看到大型科技公司推动了很多裁员。我觉得这只是冰山一角。由于人工智能导致的失业情况可能会有多严重呢？
I mean, so far a lot of the job loss has come from companies that are cutting staff in order to have more money to buy and video chips. In terms of actual efficiency gains, we're starting to see that, but I wouldn't say it's broad-based. If you look, for example, at a chart which shows the degree to which particular industries are seeing a lot of AI usage versus job openings in that industry versus employment growth in industry, you don't see a strong correlation. I think those efficiency gains are coming. I don't think we're seeing that in the data quite yet.
我的意思是，到目前为止，很多失业是因为公司在裁员，以便有更多资金用于购买视频芯片。从实际效率提升方面来看，我们开始看到一些变化，但还不能说这是普遍现象。如果你查看某个图表，显示某些行业的AI使用程度与该行业的职位空缺和就业增长情况，你会发现二者之间没有强烈的关联。我认为效率的提升正在到来，但在当前的数据中我们还看不到明显的体现。
Peter, Adam and I stick with me. We are just getting a cooking here on opening bid. For more, Polymarket odds, you can scan the QR code on your screen to go to the Yow Finds prediction market tub powered by Polymarket. Coming up, I'm taking a Hershey and Nike to task. More on all this next. I think I got a shout out to Brad Rees. Brad, I thank you for setting the table for Hershey to be my stock of the day.
彼得、亚当和我一起坚持下去。我们现在正开始一个新的开盘竞标。想了解更多，可以扫描屏幕上的二维码，进入由Polymarket提供支持的Yow Finds预测市场。接下来，我将对好时（Hershey）和耐克（Nike）进行分析。更多内容稍后带来。我还要特别感谢布拉德·里斯（Brad Rees）。布拉德，非常感谢你为好时成为我今日关注的股票做出的准备。
I'm still digesting Hershey's investor day, which was all day Tuesday. A real saga. I like hearing a lot about new products coming in the snack category, but I really liked that Hershey is ditching fillers in iconic products like Reese's and recommitting to milk and dark chocolate. This comes after HB Rees to send it. Brad Rees took to LinkedIn on Valentine's Day and ripped Hershey for using ingredient fillers to boost its profit margins. Rees said at the time, Hershey wasn't living up to the Reese's high quality name.
我还在消化周二整天的好时（Hershey）投资者日活动信息。这真是一段漫长的经历。我喜欢听到他们在零食类别中推出新产品的消息，但我更欣赏的是好时决定在像Reese’s这样的经典产品中去掉填充成分，重新专注于牛奶和黑巧克力。这一决定是在HB Rees的推动下做出的。布拉德·里斯（Brad Rees）曾在情人节当天在LinkedIn上抨击好时公司，为了提高利润率使用低质量的填充料。里斯当时表示，好时并没有达到Reese’s高质量的标准。
Now, Hershey recently, a moment to go to send me a statement, reiterating everything that just wrote in my story that's now on our whole page. Brad Rees is posting a lot about me on LinkedIn saying what Hershey was doing was creating a lot of brand risk. Again, a lot going on. I go into more on this on my Instagram account, so check that out after my show ends today.
现在，Hershey刚刚给我发了一份声明，重申了我在报道中所写的内容，这些内容现在已经在我们的网站主页上发布。Brad Rees在LinkedIn上发布了很多关于我的信息，说Hershey的做法会带来品牌风险。事情很复杂。我在Instagram账号上对此有更多的讨论，所以请在我的节目结束后去看看。
But let me put this to the opening bid round table by cell or hold Hershey. As I know, you're not going to tell me by Sarah Holt. However, at the end of the day, this is a defensive stock in Hershey that has it been doing well right now at a period of really strong market volatility. And I look, I'm surprised. And when input costs are going up, look, I will tell you what the street is thinking.
让我用中文表达这个意思。请允许我将这一点带到开标会议上进行探讨，无论是通过电话还是持有好时公司股票。据我了解，你不会通过Sarah Holt告诉我。然而，总的来说，好时作为一只防御性股票，在当前市场剧烈波动的时期表现得相当不错。我有些惊讶。当投入成本上涨时，我会告诉你市场的看法。
You've got six by 18 hold and one cell on Hershey right now. But the fact that they are going towards classic milk, dark chocolate, the fact that they are leaning into healthier, what consumers want, consumers will pay more for something that has not as much sugar, less sugar than some of the products that are out there. So this is all leaning into the right direction of what consumers are asking for. And as I'm tired of this crap, that is shrinkflation. I mean, I open these candy packages and as the product sizes are down, the products don't taste the same as that when they tasted to me like in late 80s, early 90s, like at some point, this has to stop.
你现在有六个18的持有量和一个关于好时的买入。但事实上，他们正在转向经典牛奶黑巧克力，且倾向于更健康的选择，迎合消费者的需求。消费者愿意为含糖量较低的产品支付更多。这些趋势都在朝着消费者期望的方向发展。而我对缩减通胀感到厌倦。我打开这些糖果包装时发现，产品变小了，味道也不如我在80年代末到90年代初时候的感觉。在某个时刻，这种情况是时候该停止了。
I mean, Hershey was using something called compound coatings and it has, I don't even know what the hell that stuff is, but it sounds horrible. I have no idea what it is, but I will tell you that people will pay more for things that are, why would you buy that if you are still paying a lot of money anyways? Because these these candy bars are like 250, there can be three bucks now at the grocery store. So why would you pay that if you can pay for something that is healthier? And to your point about shrinkflation, I saw this first hand when a little kid the other day took this little snack that was one of these little Dorito things and he's like, this is so small.
我的意思是，Hershey使用一种叫做复合涂层的东西，我都不知道那到底是什么东西，但听起来很糟糕。我不知道具体是什么，但我可以告诉你，人们愿意多花钱买更好的东西。为什么你还要花很多钱买那些东西呢？在超市里，这些糖果棒差不多要2.50美元甚至3美元。那么，为什么不花钱买一些更健康的东西呢？说到缩水现象，我最近亲眼看到一个小孩拿了一包小的Dorito零食，然后感叹说，这么小啊。
And I thought to myself, wow, this kid is even noticing that shrinkflation. Amen. And as that's you are my, you're my new food correspondent. Thank you, Nes. Adam, let me get over to you here. Look, I want to check myself because I just mentioned a lot of these consumer staple stocks. I've grown up and I imagine maybe you two do thinking stocks like this, they pay a healthy dividend. They are safe havens. I think it's time to just put the bed and this view that consumer package goods and especially food companies are safe haven companies because they pay dividends and they have steady income and revenue.
我心里想，哇，这个小孩竟然注意到了“缩水通胀”。太好了。从现在起，你就是我的新食物特派员了。谢谢你，Nes。Adam，让我来找你谈谈。听着，我想反思一下，因为我刚提到了很多消费类股票。我成长过程中一直认为这些股票能提供不错的股息，是避险选择。我认为是时候放下这种观点了，因为认为消费品公司，尤其是食品公司，因为支付股息并有稳定的收入和收益就是避险之地的看法可能不再适用。
That's no really no longer true in terms of revenue and set in terms of revenue and profits. I mean, they're being attacked by GLP ones. The consumers under pressure and inflation is sticky. Like what what in the world will make these safe havens? Yeah, I mean, the difficult thing is it seems like the consumer has gotten pickier and so that adds to the variability and they are more volatile. The cash flow isn't there, like it used to be and that's a large part to the input cost.
在收入和利润方面，这已经不再是真的了。我的意思是，他们正受到GLP-1类产品的冲击。消费者面临压力，而且通货膨胀居高不下。那么，到底是什么能让这些变成“避风港”？是的，困难的是，消费者似乎变得更挑剔了，这增加了不确定性，他们变得更加不稳定。现金流不像以前那样充裕，这很大程度上是因为成本的增加。
So I get the shrinkflation thing, but as a, you know, as a executive of any of these companies, they've got to try to find some way to squeeze margins out and I would agree that trying to go down market is not the right way to do it. I think you want to go up market. And so I think that's really going to be where you're looking for the traditional staple consumer good where you're looking for more steady cash flow. You know, contrary to maybe the way it used to be in this new regime, it's going up market because, you know, you hear about it a lot, but the K-shaped economy is real and so trying to go towards those higher and consumers, they're stickier, they have a bigger wallet and they can kind of be more resistant through kind of economic fluctuation.
我理解缩减通胀的概念，作为这些公司中的一名高管，他们必须找到某种方法来提高利润率。我同意，降低市场定位不是正确的方法。我认为应该提高市场定位。这是因为在追求传统消费品的过程中，我们应该寻找更稳定的现金流。与过去的方式可能不同，在当前的新格局中，提高市场定位更为重要。因为“K型经济”是真实存在的，瞄准那些高端消费者，他们的消费更稳定，购买力更强，并且能够更好地抵御经济波动。
So I think it's really smart for Hershey to try to go in that direction rather than try to go towards, you know, cheaper goods. And you know what I mean, that story like this is Taylor made for me. So I dropped a saucy fun fact. Let's throw that on the screen here. A little fun fact on Hershey, there I am. I mean, I'm smiling. That's me. I think that picture was taken after I ate a competing or a competing chocolate bar. I should note that Brad Wies originally attacked Hershey on Valentine's Day. Stock has traded down really ever since and despite that big investor to yesterday.
所以我认为，Hershey选择朝着这个方向发展，而不是走向生产廉价商品，是很聪明的。你知道我的意思，这个故事对我来说是量身定做的。让我透露一个有趣的小事实，我们把它放到屏幕上。关于Hershey的一个小趣事，就是我在那里，我在微笑。那张照片是在我吃了一块竞争对手的巧克力之后拍的。我应该指出，布拉德·韦斯在情人节时首次对Hershey发起攻击。从那时起，这支股票的价格就一直在下跌，尽管就在昨天，有个大投资者加入了。
But Peter, the stock like we've been talking about here is still valued at a premium to the broader market. I mean, do you think it's time to just take these CPG companies off the safe haven table? Well, that's been the problem with a lot of consumer staples. They've been trading at very, very expensive multiples. And Walmart, Costco, even big players trade at a premium to the overall market. And of course, what's happening now is that input costs are going up. If you look at commodities in general, but especially oil and food commodities, like most agricultural commodities are up five to 10 percent already.
但是彼得，就像我们之前讨论过的那样，这支股票仍然比大盘有更高的估值。我的意思是，你认为现在该把这些消费品公司从避险资产名单中移除了吗？这一直是许多消费必需品的问题。它们的交易市盈率非常高。沃尔玛、好市多，甚至一些大公司也以高于整体市场的溢价交易。当然，现在的问题是原材料成本在上涨。看看大宗商品，特别是石油和食品类商品，比如大多数农产品，价格已经上涨了5%到10%。
If you look at the futures, that's going to hurt the bottom line of these companies. At a time when underlying sales growth is pretty weak. Now, population growth has really slowed. The job market is not particularly strong. So this is not a great environment for a lot of these companies. They're generally safer. So they're probably not going to do poorly in relative terms, but in absolute terms, they could still struggle.
如果你看看期货市场，这将对这些公司的盈利造成影响。当前，基础销售增长相当疲弱。此外，人口增长已经显著放缓，就业市场也不是特别强劲。因此，对于许多公司来说，这并不是一个理想的环境。虽然这些公司相对来说较为安全，所以可能不会表现得特别差，但从绝对意义上讲，它们仍然可能面临困难。
All right, staying on all things consumer. Nike stocks and smacked around after a rough quarter and not so great outlook. Important to me here when Nike is that it called out an uncertain cost outlook, surprise week, just in Europe and a modest growth in fall, order books likely because of cautious consumers. I should say a modest fall in sales, that is. My question of the day is this. Did Nike just give the market a taste of what we will hear from corporate America this earnings season?
好吧，让我们继续讨论与消费者相关的一切。耐克的股票在经历了一个糟糕的季度和不太乐观的前景后遭受了冲击。对于我来说，关键在于耐克指出不确定的成本前景、欧洲市场的惊人疲软，以及由于消费者态度谨慎，秋季订单的增长仅为温和水平。准确地说，是销售额的温和下降。今天我的问题是：耐克是否给市场预示了我们将在这个财报季从美国企业听到的消息？
Peter, what's at you? Yeah, I mean, I think consumer discretionary is probably the last place you want to be right now because households around the world are going to be spending more on energy products, which means that they're going to have less money to spend on other goods, other discretionary goods in particular. So this is not a sector you want to be in a weakening economy.
彼得，你怎么看？是的，我的意思是，现在消费品行业可能是你最不应该涉足的领域。因为全球各地的家庭要在能源产品上花更多的钱，这意味着他们在其他商品上的花费会减少，特别是在非必需品上。因此，在经济疲软的情况下，这个领域并不适合投资。
I also boil this quarter down kind of like what I did with Hershey. Let's throw that up on the screen too. Some areas of concern. As you're digging through this Nike quarter, I also put a video out on my Instagram, on my X-Fee. I should say this morning breaking down this Nike quarter even more. But a lot of my concerns are this. I mean, the European business under severe pressure, the guidance really wasn't up to snuff, the China business under pressure.
我也像分析好时公司那样，把这个季度的情况简单总结了一下。我们也把这些展示在屏幕上。有一些需要关注的领域。在你深入分析耐克这个季度的表现时，我还在我的Instagram和其他社交平台上发布了一段视频，详细解析这个季度的情况。我的很多担忧在于以下几点：欧洲业务面临严重压力，业绩指引并不理想，中国业务也在承压。
And Adam, I didn't get the sense that this business that is Nike was nearing some form of an inflection point. So there's a market. There are my concerns on Nike. I don't see a lot of these abating anytime soon. What I'm concerned about is hearing some of these concerns from other companies not in the consumer space is earning, starting the wires.
亚当，我没有感觉到耐克这家企业正接近某种转折点。所以市场上有我对耐克的一些担忧。我认为这些担忧短期内不会消失。我担心的是，从一些不在消费领域的公司中也开始听到类似的担忧，这些消息正通过财务报告传递出来。
Yeah, I, you know, I would say that this story with Nike is a little bit idiosyncratic. Nike has been a tremendous failure recently and maintaining and propping up their brand name, brand image globally. And so I think that's really what's happening here. Now, we'll probably, like I said, the consumer is weakening and you're going to see some of that.
这段话可以翻译成中文，表达为：
是的，我想说，这个关于耐克的故事有些独特。最近耐克在维持和提升他们的全球品牌名声和品牌形象方面遇到了很大的失败。我认为这就是问题所在。正如我之前所说的，消费者的购买力正在减弱，你会看到一些这样的迹象。
But I'll go back to what I said earlier about the K-shaped. I think you're going to still see specialty retail do just fine. But where you've had some of these companies that like Nike that have deteriorated their brand a little bit trying to go down market, Nike's trying to pivot right now, but they've really blown a lot of collaborations and different projects that they've worked on.
我会回到之前提到的“K形”状况。我认为你会看到一些专业零售商仍表现良好。但对于一些公司，比如耐克，它们在将品牌定位下调的过程中品牌形象有些受损。耐克现在正在尝试转型，但他们确实在过去搞砸了很多合作和项目。
And so I think this is more of a Nike story, more of a brand deterioration story than a kind of holistic retail issue. And as last word to you, the other thing I didn't get a sense from on Nike is how big a lift if any will the world cup be to sales over the next few months? Yes, and that should be a huge event here, at least for Nike and also all the all the sports sort of brands.
所以我认为这更多是一个耐克自身的品牌问题，而不是整个零售行业的问题。而且，最后一点，我不太清楚耐克接下来几个月能从世界杯中获得多少销售增长？是的，这应该是一个很大的事件，至少对耐克和所有体育品牌来说都是如此。
But to the point, look, Nike's last all-time high was in 2021 for the stock. It is in the middle of a turnaround plan. What concerned me and what would I listen to in that conference call was oil prices, input prices are going up, disruptions from the Middle East, Terra. So all of these headwinds at the time that they are trying to go through this turnaround plan.
简明扼要地说，Nike股票的上一次历史最高点是在2021年。现在公司正处于一个转型计划的中期。我关注的问题以及在电话会议中需要听到的内容是油价和原材料价格上涨、中东地区的动荡以及其他问题。这些不利因素都在当前公司努力进行转型的过程中出现。
The vertical Wall Street seems to be unique more patients for this turnaround plan for now. But you are seeing two downgrades as of now Wall Street downgrades today. I would implore Nike to make a start making some sustainable shoes, but look how that ended up for all birds. That business sold for $39 million yesterday. That is absolutely awful to see.
华尔街对此翻盘计划暂时表现得更加耐心，但目前已有两家机构对其评级进行下调。我建议耐克开始生产一些可持续发展的鞋子，但看看Allbirds的结果就知道了。那家公司昨天以3900万美元的价格售出。这结果让人感到非常糟糕。
All right, big thanks to Peter Adam and it is good to see y'all. Appreciate it. I saved the date for you friends. Tomorrow at 8 AM, a new episode of my opening bid on filter podcast drops. I sat down with Insomnia Cookies founder Seth Berkowitz on how his recent sale to a private equity firm may impact the future of specialty cookies.
好的，非常感谢彼得·亚当，很高兴见到大家。感谢你们。我为你们留了时间。明天早上8点，我的《过滤器》播客有新的一集上线了。这次我采访了Insomnia Cookies的创始人塞斯·伯科威茨，讨论了他最近将公司出售给一家私募股权公司，可能会如何影响特色饼干的未来。
And yes, my healthy self tried one of these Insomnia Cookies on camera. And I can tell you this, those cookies did not shrink in size, like a lot of the products that Hershey sells. Tune in on Y'all finance or YouTube to watch the episode or listening on Spotify, Apple or Amazon, Market Catalyst is coming up next.
是的，我健康的自己在镜头前尝了一块Insomnia Cookies的饼干。我可以告诉你，这些饼干并没有像好时公司卖的许多产品那样缩水。请关注“Y'all Finance”或在YouTube观看这期节目，或者在Spotify、Apple或Amazon上收听。接下来是Market Catalyst节目。
I'm Brooke Topham. We're now 30 minutes into the US trading day. Let's take a look at all three major averages because what we are seeing is this return to momentum after we heard from President Trump this morning via truth social post that essentially Iran is looking for a ceasefire that the US will talk if they do reopen this straight, but all waiting to be determined because if that doesn't happen, he said that escalation will continue. We saw the Dow come off at highs of the day now up about 6 tenths of a percent. The NASA, we're going to see if they hold on to the momentum that we saw yesterday likely continuing into today at this start this morning up about 1 percent.
我是布鲁克·托普汉姆。我们现在已经进入美国交易日的第30分钟。让我们来看看三大股指的表现。今天早上总统特朗普在他的社交平台上发布消息说，伊朗希望达成停火协议，如果他们重开航道，美国将愿意进行对话，但这一切尚未确定，因为如果不成功，他表示将继续升级对抗。我们看到道琼斯指数一度上涨，现在约上涨了0.6%。此外，纳斯达克指数我们也在观察是否能够延续昨天的动能，今天早上开盘上涨大约1%。
And the S&P 500 after its worst first quarter since 2022, now seeing an upbeat start to queue to this is the first day of trading not only for the second quarter, but for April. So lots to look out for the S&P 500 trading higher up about 6 tenths of a percent. But taking a look at crude oil, what we are seeing there is a bit of a reversal similar to what we have been seeing so far this year. Every time that markets are moving higher, we have seen an inverse reaction when it comes to crude, crude down about 2 percent today and Brent after its largest monthly gain on record, now moving lower down about 2.5 percent.
在经历了自2022年以来表现最差的第一季度后，标普500指数在第二季度开始时表现强劲。这不仅是第二季度的首个交易日，也是四月的首个交易日，因此值得关注。标普500指数上涨了约0.6%。然而，观察原油市场时，我们看到类似于今年以来的逆转趋势。每次股市上涨，原油市场往往出现相反的反应。今天原油价格下跌了大约2%，而布伦特原油在刚刚经历其历史上最大的单月涨幅后，目前下跌约2.5%。
On top of that, we also did get March ISM manufacturing index that did rise to 52.7. The estimate that forecasted was 52.3. So coming in just slightly above expectations there that is taking into consideration for investors this morning. On top of that too, we did get a stronger than expected private sector jobs report from ADP and a stronger than expected retail sales report in the month of February. And then optimism continuing when we look at the NASDAQ here at Google Tesla, trying to hold on to momentum that we saw during Tuesday's trading session as well, mostly in the green today.
在此基础上，我们还获得了3月份ISM制造业指数的数据，该指数上升到了52.7，而之前的预测值是52.3。因此，这一结果略高于预期，投资者今早正在考虑这一点。此外，我们还收到了ADP发布的好于预期的私营部门就业报告，以及2月份好于预期的零售销售报告。在这种乐观情绪的推动下，当我们看纳斯达克市场时，谷歌和特斯拉也在努力保持周二交易中看到的上涨势头，今天大多呈上涨趋势。
We'll see if they can hold on to this momentum like I said before. But I do want to take a look at retail because one stock that is dragging the retail sector lower is Nike this morning. Nike down about 13 percent to start the day. And Nike has had quite the year taking a look over the past year. What we've seen so far is this optimism when it came to the timeline around August, September, but now from that we're down about 30 percent over the past year. And Nike now, yesterday afternoon, did issue a disappointing outlook despite topping third quarter expectations. The retailers turn around progress being weighed down by ongoing weakness in China.
我们将看看他们是否能像我之前说的那样保持这种势头。但我确实想看看零售业，因为今天上午拖累零售板块下跌的一只股票是耐克。耐克今天开盘下跌约13%。回顾过去一年，耐克经历了颇为不平凡的一年。在八月、九月的时候，我们看到了乐观情绪，但从那以后，过去一年我们下跌了约30%。耐克在昨天上午发布令人失望的展望，尽管第三季度的预期超过了市场预期。零售业的复苏进程受到了中国市场持续疲软的影响。
Joining me now is Sydney and Seagullis, Guggenheim Security, senior managing director Simon, a city in Sarasinian, walk us through exactly what we saw during this past quarter. And how this is sort of playing out, is this reaction sort of overblown here? Hey, bro, yeah. So I think that it's a good question leave frame it because what happened this quarter versus the guidance are two different things. And so there is no question investors are losing patience with Nike. We're seeing that and that chart on the very green looking day, that chart of yours looks scary. And it tells us all we need to know, right?
现在加入我们的是古根海姆证券的高级董事总经理西蒙，他在萨拉西尼安市。请为我们详细说明我们在过去这个季度里看到的情况，以及事情的发展是否有些反应过度。嗨，兄弟，是的。我认为你提的问题非常好，因为这个季度发生的事情和之前的预期是两回事。所以毫无疑问，投资者对耐克失去耐心了。从你那张绿色为主的图表上，我们就能清楚地看到情况，那张图真让人感到不安，这也就向我们传达了所有需要知道的信息。
People are saying I don't believe you. People are saying Nike of the past, Nike's dominance of the past is exactly that it's in the past. I think what is interesting is if you actually look at the quarter, there is a lot of nuance. And I'm not going to say that it's all green, but Nike North America is growing. People were worried that Nike North America wouldn't grow again. We're seeing Nike North America grow. Now ex tariffs, gross margins are actually looking pretty good. Ex severance, the EBIT, the operating profit looked a lot better, but they're not telling that story or at least people don't really buy it because the go forward number you still have to worry about all the things that made Nike good in the first place was that they were global.
人们在说我不相信你。有人认为过去的耐克、过去那个占据主导地位的耐克已经成了历史。我认为有趣的是，如果你真正看看这个季度，会发现很多细微的区别。我不会说一切都是一片绿意，但耐克北美市场确实在增长。人们之前担心耐克北美市场不会再次增长。而现在，我们看到耐克北美市场确实在增长。去掉关税后，毛利率其实表现得相当不错。去掉遣散费后，息税前利润看上去也好多了，但这种情况并没有被广泛传递，或至少人们并不买账，因为往后看，我们仍需担心那些让耐克变得优秀的因素，因为耐克过去是全球化的。
Now right now the global pieces are setting up these other dominoes that people are worried about. And so I think the primary question is does this guidance set a floor? Is this finally we're troughing estimates we can make expectations as bad as they need to be and then start building back up? Or is it just pushing the recovery out further? The market's telling you it's the latter. Simian, when you do take a look at that guidance particularly for their greater China segment, we are seeing expectations that they're going to see sales drop by roughly 20% next quarter. When you hear that, what do you make of that?
当前，全球局势正在形成一些人们担心的多米诺骨牌效应。因此，我认为主要的问题是，这一指导方针是否可以起到托底作用？我们是否已经到了可以将预期调到最低，然后开始逐步恢复的阶段？还是说这只是把复苏的时间进一步推迟？市场的反应告诉我们是后者。Simian，当你特别关注他们在大中华区的指导意见时，我们看到的预期是，他们的销量在下个季度可能会下降大约20%。听到这样的消息，你怎么看？
You know, is that warranted? Is that approved an approach? Are they sort of saying this is worst case scenario here? So it's always worth asking yourself, we look at guidance as if it happened. They're going to beat that number, right? That Nike gives low guidance then they beat it. And so setting a very low expectation, the question is where do they round out? Today we're looking at 20. They just came off of doing down seven. The quarter before they were down 17. And so if they wouldn't have guided what we would have been saying about China is, oh, you just went from a down 17 the prior quarter. By the way, that was a down 20% in units because price versus units is important. They were selling much, much fewer goods last quarter. Now that number sequentially improved. So it's still down seven, but that's a lot better or it's a lot less bad as the right way to frame it. If that's all we had, then we would say, okay, we're really on this great progress.
你知道，这样的做法合理吗？是否得到批准？他们是不是在说这是最坏的情况呢？因此，值得问问自己，我们是否以一种既定的事实来看待指导意见。他们会超出那个数字，对吗？比如，耐克给出一个较低的预测然后超出。设置一个非常低的预期，问题是他们最终会达到什么水平？今天我们看到的是20，而他们刚从下降7的情况走出来。前一个季度他们下降了17。因此，如果他们没有提供指导意见，我们可能会说，关于中国的情况是，哦，你们刚从上个季度的下降17走出来。顺便说一下，那个下降了20%的销量因为价格和销量是重要的因素。上个季度他们的商品卖得少得多。现在这个数字有了逐步的改善。因此，虽然仍下降了7，但这比之前的情况要好得多，或者说，情况并没有那么糟糕。如果我们只有这些信息，我们会说，好吧，我们真的在取得很大的进展。
We're moving in the right direction by next year China will be growing again. The same way that last year North America had huge declines. And now it's growing. The problem is your point, right? The problem is no, they just told us it's going to get worse again. And so if it does do down 20, then we have to understand like, yeah, then there's a serious demand issue. If that down 20 is them level setting a bar, they can then be the same way that they did it this past quarter, then that's going to be another story. And so I think what is interesting is we're looking at America, we're looking at North America, Emia, this kind of European region. And then we're looking at greater China. China was the big problem. This quarter was not. Emia started becoming a problem. We have to see where it goes from there. And so I think what people are looking at is I'm like, how many problems am I going to give you credit for as opposed to watching you're actually taking care of each problem as they surface?
我们正在朝着正确的方向前进，明年中国将重新开始增长，就像去年北美经历了大幅下滑，而现在又开始增长一样。问题是你的观点，对吗？问题在于，他们刚刚告诉我们，情况可能会再次恶化。所以如果真的下降20%，那么我们必须理解，这意味着确实存在严重的需求问题。如果这个下降20%是他们设立了一个基准，就像他们在上一季度所做的那样，那又是另一回事了。所以我认为有趣的是，我们在关注美国、北美、欧洲地区以及大中华区。中国曾经是个大问题，但本季度不是。欧洲地区开始成为一个问题，我们需要观察事态的发展。因此，我认为人们关注的是，我要给你多少信任，而不是看着你如何在每个问题出现时加以解决。
Now in a report that Bloomberg just had put out it said that Elliott Hale the CEO over at Nike said that he's tired too of this turnaround progress. He said, quote, I'm so tired of talking about fixing this business. What still needs to happen? And what's sort of the tie up because we saw this stock run up. Now it's down 30% since September. It seems like once liberation tariffs, liberation day tariffs, sort of were in the rear view mirror. The company was able to get ahead. Now we're hitting this halt again. So what's the hold up here, Simian? So I think, I think you can take quotes and decide where we want to take them. I think Elliott still very much believes in the business. I think the line you said he's tired of talking about it. Right. What's interesting about Elliott vis-a-vis if you think about different types of CEOs, there are CEOs that want to get stuff done and there are CEOs that want their name out there. Elliott's not the latter. He's been thrust into that spotlight because of how high of a level Nike was.
根据彭博社最新的报告，耐克的首席执行官艾略特·海尔表示，他对公司的转型进展感到厌倦。他说：“我已经厌倦了谈论如何修复这项业务。” 那么，接下来还需要做什么呢？目前是什么阻碍了我们的发展？此前，耐克的股价一度上涨，但自九月份以来已下跌了30%。看起来在“解放日关税”问题解决后，公司似乎有了一些进展，但现在又遇到了停滞。那么问题出在哪里呢，西米恩？
我认为，可以从他的话中分析出一些信息。我觉得艾略特依然非常相信这项业务。他表达的意思是，他厌倦了不断地谈论修复业务的问题。有趣的是，如果考虑不同类型的首席执行官，有些希望实实在在地解决问题，有些则希望自己的名声广为人知。艾略特并不是后者，但由于耐克处于非常高的品牌地位，他被推到了聚光灯下。
But if we think about the prior. Gus from whatever $15 million to $45. So I think what that line, my guess is, I don't want to put words into his mouth. My guess is what he's saying is it's getting very tiring. Have to talk about this. Let me just do it. But maybe that's not the case. But so I think that is an interesting point. But I think what we have to do, listen, there is a lot of pieces. It does feel a little bit like whack-a-mole. And that's why the stock is showing us what it's showing. And I think for better or for worse, a reality is the tariffs are here. If the tariffs weren't, I think you and I would be talking about a North American business that's growing sales and profits after people thought it wouldn't. And that would then give people at least comfort and that they could do it again in China and in Europe as it happens.
如果我们考虑之前的情况，Gus从1500万美元涨到了45美元。所以我猜，他可能想说的是，谈论这个话题已经变得很疲惫，不如直接去做。但这也许不是他的意思。我觉得这个观点很有趣。我们需要做的是认识到，目前有很多问题需要解决，这感觉有点像打地鼠游戏。这就是为什么股票表现成这样的原因。而且不管好坏，现实是关税确实存在。如果没有关税，我想你我现在可能在谈论一个在北美销售和利润双增长的业务，尽管人们之前认为它不会增长。这至少能够让人们感到安心，并且相信他们在中国和欧洲也能再现这种成功。
On the other hand, because you can't show that, because tariffs are weighing down North American profits materially, people are looking at this and saying, well, nothing is fixed yet. And if nothing is fixed, then it is whack-a-mole. And so I think that's probably what he's seeing. He has to see the nuance and say, no, my underlying business, North America, actually is healthier. And therefore, I feel really, I feel pretty good about what I can do to fix the problems as we go forward, which was effectively the tone on a conference call last night. But it very much becomes a burden of proof on execution because unfortunately, those tariffs and they put out a lot of severance and didn't one time it out like most companies do made it look like the profits are being pressured as well.
另一方面，由于无法显示关税对北美利润的实质性影响，人们认为问题还没有解决。这种情况下，就像是在玩打地鼠的游戏。我认为这正是他所看到的局面。他必须认识到其中的细微差别，并说明自己的北美业务实际上更为健康。因此，他对于未来解决问题的能力感到相当有信心，这也是昨晚电话会议的基调。然而，执行力的证明变得非常重要，因为不幸的是，这些关税以及发放的一大笔遣散费，并没有像大多数公司那样一次性处理，使得利润看起来受到了压力。
So, I mean, 30 seconds here. Is this a red flag for what we could hear from other retailers about tariffs? Well, so it's a good question. I think that the reality is this right now is Nike specific. I think we know the tariff pressures that we are getting. Nike, I think, is more at the tail end of an earnings report than the beginning of an earnings quarter. So I think right now that's okay. I think what we saw last quarter by and large was an acceleration in revenues across retail and then maybe a pressure point on costs. And so they felt that you are, they got price lifts because of tariffs, but they also absorb some of the costs. I think we'll see kind of an ongoing version of that.
所以，我的意思是，这需要30秒钟。这是否预示着我们可能会从其他零售商那里听到有关关税的警示信号？这是个好问题。我认为目前这仅仅是耐克的具体情况。我们清楚地知道现在所面临的关税压力。耐克目前更像是在一个财报周期的末尾，而不是财报季度的开始。所以我认为这暂时没问题。我认为我们在上个季度总体上看到的是零售收入的加速增长，成本方面可能承受了一些压力。他们感受到因为关税导致的价格上涨，但同时也吸收了一些成本。我想我们会看到这种情况继续发生。
Simi and Segal and Guggenheim, thank you so much for joining us this morning. Appreciate your time. Good to see you. AI startup and Thropic is racing to contain the fallout after an accident leak of its source code. The company attributed the leak to human error now in Thropic representatives are using a copyright takedown request to force the removal of more than 8,000 copies and adaptations of the raw cloud code, construction, according to the Wall Street Journal. The accidental release came to light in a post on X linking to the code and garnered more than 30 million views.
西米、塞加尔和古根海姆，非常感谢你们今早加入我们的讨论。感谢你们的时间，很高兴见到你们。AI初创公司Anthropic正在努力应对源代码意外泄漏后的影响。公司将泄漏归因于人为错误。根据《华尔街日报》的消息，Anthropic的代表们正在使用版权撤除请求，要求删除超过8,000份源代码及其改编版本。这次意外泄漏最初是在X上的一篇帖子中曝光的，并获得了超过3000万次浏览。
The leak has touched off thousands of posts online, with people saying they've scoured the code. The accidental release marked in Thropic's second security slip-up in a matter of days, but the company says no customer information was released. However, security experts are warning on vulnerabilities now that the code can be studied. And coming up, all your market's action ahead, stay tuned. You're watching Market Catalysts. The US stocks are rallying yet again amid hopes the war in Iran will soon come to an end. The president says the US will be leaving in a matter of weeks ahead of his plan to address the nation tonight.
泄漏事件在网上引发了成千上万的帖子，人们表示他们已经仔细研究了代码。这次意外泄露标志着Anthropic公司在几天内的第二次安全失误，但公司表示，没有客户信息被泄露。然而，安全专家警告说，现在代码已经可以被研究，可能存在漏洞。接下来是市场动向，请继续关注。您正在收看的是《市场催化剂》。由于对伊朗战争即将结束的希望，美国股市再次上涨。总统表示，美国将在几周内撤离，并计划今晚向全国发表讲话。
But is the market getting ahead of itself? Joining us for more is Lizanne Saunders, she's Charles Schwab, Chief Investment Strategist. Lizanne, are we getting a bit too optimistic here? Maybe. Maybe not. Tell me what the next post is going to be. What the next narrative change is going to be. I think there were perceived lessons that were learned in the first week of April of last year when the April 9th announcement of the 90-day delays, the whole notion of Taco. And I think that has been ingrained in a lot of at least shorter-term traders' mindsets.
但市场是否有些过于乐观了呢？跟我们一起来探讨的是查尔斯·施瓦布的首席投资策略师莉赞·桑德斯。莉赞，我们是不是有些过于乐观了？也许是，也许不是。请告诉我接下来市场会怎么走，会有什么新的叙事变化。我认为，在去年的四月第一周，有些被认为的经验教训被人们铭记，比如4月9日宣布的90天延迟计划和“塔科”（Taco）的概念。这些想法已经在许多短期交易者的思维中根深蒂固。
What's different, of course, about this time is that even if the war ends, whatever the heck that looks like, the dislocation and disruption associated with the Strait of War moves, not just in terms of the feeder of energy to various regions, but everything else that goes through that straight, the fact that stockpiles built up, production has been shut down, not to mention some of the military conflict bringing out other production, particularly in LNG out of Qatar. It's going to take a while to bring that back. So I think the economic ripple effects wouldn't immediately be behind us. I think that's something that's going to still have to be assessed.
当然，这次的不同之处在于，即使战争结束，不管以何种形式结束，与战争相关的动荡和混乱依然存在。这不仅涉及能源向各个地区的输送，还包括所有穿过那条海峡的物资。库存的增加，生产的停滞，更不用说一些军事冲突影响到了其他生产，特别是卡塔尔的液化天然气（LNG）生产。恢复这些需要一段时间。所以我认为经济上的连锁反应不会立刻消失。这仍然需要进一步的评估。
So do you think the investors right now are taking that into consideration and do you think maybe this could be the sort of Q3 where we can even see the real effect? Well, this is a very important earnings season coming up because analysts have not done much adjustments to estimates based on the implications of the war. We've seen an increase in 2020's success estimates largely because of up-adjustments for the energy sector, duh. And a pretty significant increase in technology estimates, but largely concentrated in just two stocks, Micron and Nvidia, as those estimates go up.
那么，你认为投资者现在是否在考虑这些因素？你认为这可能是我们可以看到实际影响的第三季度吗？ 这即将到来的盈利季节非常重要，因为分析师们并没有根据战争的影响对预期进行太多调整。2020年的成功预期有所提高，主要是因为能源行业的上调，显而易见。而科技行业的预期也有显著提升，但主要集中在两个股票上，即美光和英伟达，因为这些公司的预期在上升。
For the most part, though, analysts are not making many adjustments. I think until they start to hear from companies. So I think that's the next phase we have here where we might be able to put some meat on the bones in terms of the impact of this war on actual companies. If you're an investor and you're looking at this market right now, you're trying to take into consideration all those posts that we're getting, taking into consideration the president speaking this evening, how do you sort of think about, okay, how can I get into this market? Well, there's so much uncertainty, so many unknowns of when exactly this war will end.
总的来说，分析师并没有做出太多调整。我认为，只有等到他们开始听到来自公司的反馈时，情况才会有所改变。所以我认为这是我们接下来的阶段，我们可能会更具体地了解这场战争对实际公司的影响。如果你是投资者，正在关注当前的市场，你会试图考虑我们获得的所有信息，包括今晚总统的讲话，那么你会怎么想呢？嗯，目前有很多不确定性，战争何时结束尚未可知。
Well, I'm glad you asked me the question with a couple of specific words in there, get in. And I always say, either get in or get out as an investing strategy. That's just gambling on two moments in time, which I don't think investors should ever do that. Let alone in today's unique set of circumstances. Investing really needs to be a disciplined process over time. I know it doesn't make for good FinTV to talk about why diversification matters so much, why rebalancing matters so much. But that's really what we're talking about.
好的，我很高兴你用了一些具体的词来问我这个问题，比如“进入”。我总是说，作为一种投资策略，要么进入要么退出。这其实就是在赌博两个时间点，而我认为投资者永远不应该这样做。更不用说在当今这种独特的环境下。投资确实需要通过时间磨练出来的纪律性过程。我知道谈论多元化为什么如此重要、再平衡为什么如此重要并不适合做成好的财经节目，但这才是我们真正应该讨论的内容。
I love to do jigsaw puzzles. This is a big puzzle right now that we're dealing with. And I often will pose a rhetorical question, what's the most important piece of a jigsaw puzzle? People will say the corners are the final piece and I always say it's the picture on the box. That's the plan. And so that's the way to navigate through this is to actually have a long-term plan, strategic asset allocation, use diversification, use rebalancing strategies without having to try to sort of pick entry and exit points, especially in an environment like this where narratives can change literally on a dime. When you see so many investors maybe rotating into energy right now, rotating utilities, how do you create this diversified portfolio while also thinking, okay, what about those AI concerns? What about the private credit concerns that we had back in Q1 that got overtaken by this conversation of the war?
我喜欢拼拼图。我们现在面临的这个问题就像一个大拼图。我常常会问一个修辞性的问题：拼图中最重要的部分是什么？很多人会说是角落或是最后的一块拼图。而我总是回答说，是盒子上的图片，那就是计划。因此，要有效解决问题，我们需要有一个长期计划，比如战略性资产配置，利用多元化和再平衡策略，而不是试图在瞬息万变的市场中选定买入和卖出的时机。特别是在这种环境下，市场走势和故事可能瞬息万变。当你看到很多投资者或许正在转向能源或公用事业时，如何在创建多元化投资组合的同时，也考虑到人工智能的担忧以及第一季度时私人信贷的担忧，这些都被战争话题所掩盖了？
Yeah, I think we've had a strong bias toward quality. And I know that seems like an obvious statement as an investor, would you always want to consider quality? But there are times where you want to sacrifice a little quality if you're sort of anticipating a turn out of an economic crisis. But we think you want to stay up in quality. The other thing to understand about things like sectors, sector rotations have been really rapid fire. Not to mention the fact that be careful about monolithic sector-based investment decision-making, especially given the concentrate, we talk about the concentration problem at the index level, less so at the sector level. Communication services, the two main stocks represent between 75 and 80% of that entire sector. So it was certainly over there. Even energy, the top two stocks, represent more than half of that sector.
是的，我认为我们一直对质量抱有很强的偏好。这可能听起来像是投资者的常识，因为大家都会关注质量。然而，有时候在经济危机即将过去时，你可能会选择牺牲一点质量。然而，我们认为还是应该坚持高质量。另一个需要理解的是，关于行业和行业轮动，这些变化可能发生得非常迅速。我们也要注意，以单一行业为基础的投资决策时要谨慎，特别是在指数层面的集中度问题比行业层面更突出的时候。比如，通信服务领域的两个主要股票就占到了整个行业的75%到80%。即使是能源行业，前两大股票也占据了该行业的一半以上。
So this is an environment where you've got to go just a layer deeper to understand not only how to think about diversification in the context of sectors or industries, but also understanding the mechanics of the market. And what is happening from a short-term leadership-ship perspective? So what are you looking for in this coming Ernie season with this all in mind, especially as we are seeing maybe a return a bit to the Mag 7? So obviously an important Ernie season because we haven't seen much of that adjustment yet on the part of the analyst to 2026 numbers. So we'll have to see whether there are major pre-announcements on the part of companies, either positive pre-announcements, those typically would have already happened. Companies like to get the good news out, or negative pre-announcements, particularly industries and companies that have high energy costs as an input, how are they handling that?
这是一个需要深入理解的环境，你不仅要从行业或产业的角度思考多元化，还要了解市场的运作机制。短期内市场的领导地位正在发生怎样的变化？在即将到来的财报季中，你关注的是什么，尤其是在我们可能会看到“MAG 7” （可能指七大科技股）有所回归之际？显然，这将是一个重要的财报季，因为分析师对于2026年的预测数字还没有太多调整。我们需要看看公司是否会有重大预公布，无论是正面的（好消息通常会更早公布）还是负面的，尤其是那些高能源成本做为投入的行业和公司，他们是如何应对这一挑战的？
Are they making adjustments in other areas where they can contain costs? Are they looking at a potential hit-to-profit margins? And even on those subjects to your point about AI, that again has to come back into the conversation. It sort of became second-page news, but that was the whole story we were all- Hitting in a discussion with X. And even just heading into March, the AI disruption story and the combination of, I think, in the AI space investors figuring out who's being disrupted, but who are the biggest beneficiaries of that? So certainly once we get through this war, whatever the heck that looks like, I think there's going to be a shift back to, okay, what were the fundamentals we were grappling with?
他们是否在其他领域进行调整以控制成本？他们是否考虑到利润率可能受到的影响？关于您提到的人工智能，这个话题也必须重新回到讨论中。虽然它似乎成了次要新闻，但实际上这是我们与X讨论的整个故事的一部分。即使是在进入三月时，关于人工智能的颠覆性影响及其与投资者在AI领域中识别受影响者和最大受益者的结合也一直是个热门话题。因此，一旦我们渡过这场战争，无论结果如何，我认为将会回到关注那些我们一直在努力应对的基本面问题上。
How do we think about profit margins? How do we think about valuations? You know, the good news about going through a corrective phase like this, in this case in particular, is it was all valuation compression because we haven't seen the deterioration to underlying denominator in the PE equation. We'll have to see whether that stays part of the story once we get into reporting season. Well, the Z-Star to Q2 to say the least, Lizanne's honors. Thank you so much for coming in to the studio. Appreciate it. And it's coming up. We're taking a look at some of today's trending tickers. Stay tuned. You're watching Market Catalyst.
我们如何看待利润率？我们如何看待估值？在这种情况下，经过这样的调整阶段，好消息是，这完全是估值的压缩，因为我们还没有看到市盈率公式中分母基本面情况的恶化。一旦进入财报季，我们得看看这一点是否会继续成为故事的一部分。Z-Star到第二季度至少要说明这一点，Lizanne，非常感谢你来到演播室。感谢您的参与。接下来，我们将关注一些今天热门的股票。请继续关注，您正在收看《市场催化剂》。
Now time for some of today's trending tickers. We're watching R-E, I'm sure. And so there's a big, anytime you have a big down day, you got to look at what's happening under the hood. But let's go out after some of those numbers that really kind of spook the street here. Near term demand is looking softer than the bulls wanted. That's really what the headline is there. So first quarter revenue guide with the projection for the first quarter, that is down 2 to 4%. And then fourth quarter revenue rose only 3.7% to 843 million. That was a little bit light there. Bloomberg intelligence, I got a quote from them saying the outlook for a 2 to 4% first quarter revenue decline following a fourth quarter miss. This just points to a sharp drop in demand that could extend beyond the first quarter.
现在是时候看看今天的一些热门股票了。我们当然在关注R-E。通常在出现大跌的时候，你需要关注幕后的情况。但我们来看看一些真正让市场紧张的数据。短期需求看起来比乐观者预期的要疲软，这就是主要的标题。第一季度的收入预期下降了2%到4%。而第四季度的收入仅增长了3.7%，达到8.43亿美元，这略显疲软。彭博情报的一则评论表示，第一季度收入预计下降2%到4%，继第四季度未达预期之后，这表明需求可能会在第一季度之后继续大幅下滑。
Then you have international expansion. That's weighing on margins. City, which rates to stock a neutral. Price target is down to 150 from 183. They're saying that the sales ramp and margin recovery is going to take longer than expected. And then cash generation is still the main bull counterpoint. So that's not, that's a decent area right now. Full year 26, adjusted free cash flow guide is 300 to 400 million. Full year 25, free cash flow was 252 million. Morgan Stanley saying ongoing improvement in cash generation is encouraging. But obviously not enough to power the stock today.
然后是国际扩张的问题。这对利润率产生了压力。花旗银行对该股票的评级是中性，目标价从183下降到150。他们表示，销售增长和利润率恢复的时间将比预期更长。此外，现金产生仍是主要的看涨理由之一，所以这一点目前还是不错的。2026年全年调整后的自由现金流目标是3亿至4亿美元。2025年全年自由现金流为2.52亿美元。摩根士丹利表示，现金产生的持续改善令人鼓舞，但显然还不足以支撑股价上涨。
Since you mentioned the stock, let's go to the Wi-Fi interactive. And I just wanted to chart this real quickly. This is intraday. Let me just go to a six year. And I used six year to show you what happened at the beginning of the pandemic. Everybody was buying furniture. Everybody there was a huge home improvement boom. And it's just kind of been from the upper left to the lower right, which is now when you want to see in a chart since then. And then you also had tear off stood against consideration, the impact of that. Exactly.
既然你提到了股票，我们就来看一下无线网络互动图。我想快速展示一下这个走势。这是当天的走势图，让我切换到一个六年的图表。我选择六年是为了让你看到疫情开始时的情况。当时大家都在买家具，家庭装修市场出现了一次巨大的热潮。从那时起，股票走势就从左上角一路下降到右下角，这就是自那时以来的表现。此外，撕掉立场的影响也需要考虑进去。
And what we're looking at now is a heat map of my home furnishing spaces. You can see our H is at the bottom today. But let me just show you it's been kind of a rough year for a lot of these names. Wow. There's a lot of red, a lot of dark red there. So it's been challenging for its peers. And then you have idiosyncratic risk, you know, execution. It's kind of a show me story right now. And it might be that way for the whole industry.
我们现在看到的是我家庭家具空间的热力图。你可以看到今天我们的“H”在底部。但是让我给你看看，今年对很多这些品牌来说都比较艰难。哇，有很多红色，很多深红色。所以对同行来说，这是一个挑战。同时还存在特有的风险，比如执行问题。现在有点像是“用事实说话”的阶段。整个行业可能都是这样。
And on top of that, think about it. This has been a worse winter than what we could have anticipated. The weather certainly taking impact on that. We did get a note from Chelsea advisory group pointing to that unfavorable weather in January that did weigh on the quarter. But some are sort of pointing out, like, okay, there's long to potential when it comes to those 20, 27 to 20, 30 financial targets that they had pointed out. They do expect a bounce back in revenue growth.
而且，想一想，这个冬天比我们预料的要糟糕。天气确实对情况产生了影响。我们确实收到了来自切尔西顾问组的通知，指出一月份的不利天气对这个季度造成了影响。但是，有些人指出，他们在2027年至2030年的财务目标中看到了潜力。他们确实预计收入增长会回升。
The 10 to 12 percent in 20, 27 reaching about 5.5 to 5.8 billion dollars in sales by 2030. But it just doesn't seem like the street is buying it because of all this consumer headwinds that they're up against right now. Anytime you're at multi year lows, you know, it's a show me story. And so we're going to have to be showing a few more quarters here.
到2027年，这个比例将在10%到12%之间，到2030年销售额将达到大约55亿到58亿美元。但由于目前面临的种种消费者逆风，市场似乎并不太买账。每当处于多年低谷时，这都是一个“让我看看”的故事，所以我们还需要再展示几个季度的表现。
Right. Next up, let's take a look at Boeing and Lockheed Martin because the Pentagon has signed a seven year contract with the company. It's a triple production capacity for the PAC three missile pack three missile. So when you think about this, tripling production, they're obviously not too much reaction on the street, sort of a muted reaction, but Boeing is down about a rather up, rather about 4.7 percent. What do you make of this story?
好的，接下来我们来看一下波音和洛克希德·马丁，因为五角大楼与这家公司签订了一份为期七年的合同。这份合同将使PAC-3导弹的产能增加三倍。当然，当你想到产能增加三倍时，市场上的反应并不算太大，只是稍显平淡，但是波音的股价却上涨了大约4.7%。你对这个消息怎么看？
Yeah. So this is kind of an incremental story. So here's the deal. There's a seven year Pentagon production ramp agreement around this Patriot PAC three MSC missile program. And this is this whole deal is meant to help scale output much faster as demand for air defenses rise. And that's of course with all the geopolitical ramp that we've seen recently.
好的。这是一个逐步推进的故事。事情是这样的：关于爱国者PAC-3 MSC导弹项目，国防部有一个为期七年的生产提升协议。整个协议旨在随着对防空系统需求的增加，帮助更快地扩大产能。当然，这与我们最近看到的所有地缘政治局势加剧密切相关。
So here's what Boeing does in the deal. They make the secret. This is the guidance piece that sits inside the interceptor that helps it find and hit the target. Boeing had already been set to make about 3,000 plus of these up to 750 a year through 2030. This framework now points to an even bigger ramp.
以下是波音公司在这项协议中的做法：他们制造了秘密武器。这是一种安装在拦截器内部的制导装置，帮助拦截器发现并击中目标。到2030年，波音已经计划每年生产大约750个，总共超过3000个。而现在，这项框架协议表明他们的产量将进一步大幅增加。
And here's what Lockheed does. They are the prime contractor for the full PAC three MSC interceptor. So in January, Lockheed said that they had a framework to lift this production from roughly 600 a year to about 2000. This Boeing deal is now going to help solve one key part of the bottleneck. And here's why investors should care. This is really a capacity plus supply chain certainty story.
以下是洛克希德公司所做的工作。他们是完整PAC-3 MSC拦截器的主要承包商。因此，在一月份，洛克希德表示他们已制定计划，将产量从每年大约600枚提高到大约2000枚。这项与波音的合作将有助于解决瓶颈中的一个关键部分。投资者应该关注这一点，因为这实际上是一个关于产能提升和供应链稳定性的故事。
So for Boeing, it supports a steadier defense manufacturing growth lane. And then for Lockheed Martin, it improves the odds that it can actually hit some of those big targets with no pun intended with those missile output. Yeah. And also when you think about it, this is a seven year contract agreement. That's a pretty long timeline for investors to think about right here.
对于波音公司来说，这有助于稳定其国防制造业务的增长。而对洛克希德·马丁公司来说，这增加了实现其大型目标的机会，尤其是在导弹生产方面。这份合同为期七年，对投资者来说，这是一段相当长的时间需要考量。
And what we actually heard from Jeffries was that they were sort of saying that this is additional cast neutral Boeing investments throughout the production value stream, also modernizing manufacturing, workforce development, strengthening the supply chain. So lots of sort of tailwinds, so to say, for these companies as well.
从Jeffries那里我们实际了解到的信息是，他们表示这些是波音公司在整个生产价值链中追加的投资，基本上是不会影响资金平衡的。这些投资还包括现代化制造、员工技能发展以及供应链的加强。因此，这些措施可以说给这些公司带来了很多有利的条件。
The US government spends a lot of money on defense. And let me let's go to the left one. And this is something that we've been seeing over the past month. These stocks began popularity. Yeah, you know, it's been interesting because defense stocks, let's go to the Wi-Fi interactive. Defense stocks have done very well over the last year. So and that goes back to that remember of Liberation Day when we had that huge rally off of the lows. Defense was one of the better performers there. And in fact, they didn't even take that much of a hit over Liberation Day. So it was kind of like, you know, defense in multiple and multiple aspects there. But you can see there's a lot of dark green here in some of these stocks. Here's Raytheon up 47 percent. But over the last month, we saw a bit of a hit there.
美国政府在国防上花费了大量资金。让我们来看看左边的部分，这是我们在过去一个月中看到的一些情况。这些股票开始受到关注。你知道，国防股票的表现一直很有趣，特别是过去一年里，国防股票表现得非常好。这可以追溯到解放日，当时我们从低点开始大幅反弹。国防类股在那次反弹中表现得很出色，事实上，它们在解放日时几乎没有受到太大影响。可以说，国防在多个方面都表现出了优势。你可以看到，这些股票中有很多都呈现深绿色。比如，雷神公司上涨了47%。但是在过去的一个月里，这些股票受到了些许打击。
So ironically, when the war kind of ramped up about one month ago, a lot of these companies that had done so well over the last year, well, they it was kind of like a cell the news story. But that doesn't mean that the theory that the thesis is dead. Defense is here to stay in terms of all this spending. And so you got to think, okay, maybe that was a near-jerk reaction. Maybe we're about to see a little bit of a second leg here. And here's what we're seeing today in that sector. Right. We're definitely seeing a return to optimism here as you make your way. The possibility that this war could come to an end. Let's get to our last stending ticker.
讽刺的是，大约一个月前战争升级的时候，去年表现优异的很多公司，反倒出现了一种消息出尽后的卖出的情况。但这并不意味着它们的理论或投资逻辑结束了。因为在国防支出方面，相关投入仍会持续。所以我们要考虑，也许那是一个急于出售的反应。也许我们将会看到这一轮的第二波上升趋势。如今在这个领域，我们确实看到了乐观情绪的回升，这可能意味着战争有结束的可能性。现在让我们关注到最后一支备受关注的股票。
And that is Canagra, the food and snack company, is seeing elevated costs from a volatile macro environment. They also sort of point out to higher inflation than expected during the quarter. They did trim their full year earnings outlook to the low end of the range. They also said that consumers are just shopping less. They're under this economic stress. This is what we've been hearing about snack brands for years and years. It seems like these companies just cannot get ahead. You know, I keep hearing that salty is here to stay. And that seems to be the one constant. But yeah, in terms of sugar input, things fall out of favor.
佳那格拉，这家食品和零食公司，正面临因不稳定的宏观环境带来的成本上升压力。他们还指出，本季度的通胀率比预期的要高。他们调整了全年盈利预期至预期范围的低端。此外，他们还提到消费者在经济压力下购物减少。这是我们多年来关于零食品牌经常听到的问题，这些公司似乎总是赶不上变化。不过，我一直听说咸味零食将长期受欢迎，这似乎是唯一不变的。但在糖类输入方面，情况就不太理想，受欢迎度在下降。
And it's a very fickle industry. And then you have the GLP craze, which kind of upset the a lot of these staples a few years ago. And I'm going to get to the charts in a second here. Let me just go over some of the earnings stuff. So underlying sales were better than the headline. Organic neck sales rose 2.4%. Even as reported net sales, they fell 1.9%. Profit guidance still getting pinched their full year adjusted DPS. Now seen at about a buck 70 cost inflation. That's still running around 7%. That's very high for this company. Barclays, which rates is talking overrate, price target of 21.
这是一个非常多变的行业。几年前出现的GLP热潮扰乱了许多行业的基本格局。我马上会谈到图表。先简单回顾一下盈利状况。基本销售好于预期，净销售额增长了2.4%。尽管报告的净销售额下降了1.9%。利润预测仍然承压，全年调整后的每股收益预计在1.70美元左右。成本通胀仍在7%左右，这对公司而言已经非常高。巴克莱评级为“增持”，目标价为21。
Saying notably management has called out a 10 cent headwind from ardent mills relative to its original four year 26 assumption. And then you have cash flow in the leveraging those remain a support being there. So the company's paying down debt or they're trying to anyway while they're generating free cash flow, which seems to be at a decent clip here about 105%. But you go to the charts. Let's go to the Wi-Fi interactive one more time. I'm going to show you what's happening in food today. And you can see a lot of red there. Here's what she is Unilever. Yeah. All those good guys. But check out what happened over the last month.
管理层特别指出，相较于最初四年的26假设，Ardent Mills带来了10美分的逆风影响。同时，公司正在通过产生自由现金流来支持减债，尽管他们仍在努力还债，但自由现金流的产生速度相当可观，大约为105%。现在，让我们再次查看Wi-Fi互动图表，看看今天食品行业的表现。你可以看到很多股票在下跌（红色）。这里是联合利华以及其他相关公司。查看一下过去一个月的情况吧。
There was just I'm going to sort by equal weight. So you can see a lot of the bottom row there. These names off by 20 30%. Staples did really did really poorly over the last month. In fact, they were the worst performing sector of March. I think in part that's because they had picked up in December and January and they were outperformers. And so they just kind of got sold the most in March. But this is another story where you got to wonder, okay, is this a one off? Are we going to see staples kind of lead again where they were in January, February? We'll have to see. But maybe not today because that's kind of a red pick.
我打算按等权重进行排序。这样你可以看到很多底部的数据。这些名字下跌了20%到30%。生活必需品板块在过去一个月表现非常差，实际上是三月份表现最差的板块之一。我认为部分原因是因为在去年十二月和今年一月份时，它们表现出色，表现优于其他板块。因此，它们在三月份被大量抛售。但这又是一个让人思考的情况，我们要考虑这是一次偶然事件吗？生活必需品是否会再次像一月、二月那样领涨？我们需要观望。但可能不会在今天，因为今天的数据不太乐观。
And Jared, this week around look could also be an indication of what we could hear from other food companies when it comes to the impact of this war and rising oil prices. So definitely keep a lookout for that. Jared, look great. Thank you so much. Appreciate your time. And fun rises. Pushing back against a short seller position against the company's public publicly listed tech innovation fund. The VUNDWEN public in mid March with the aim of giving investors access to private venture capital across the tech sector. Yowl Finance is Josh Lipton spoke to fund rise co-founder and CEO Ben Miller. Ben, great to have you on the show.
贾里德，这周的情况可能也会预示其他食品公司在谈到战争影响和油价上涨时，我们可能会听到些什么。所以一定要留意这些动向。贾里德，看起来很不错。非常感谢您的时间。趣升公司正在反对一名卖空者针对其上市科技创新基金的立场。该基金于3月中旬公开上市，旨在为投资者提供进入科技行业私人风险投资的机会。雅虎财经的乔什·利普顿采访了趣升的联合创始人兼首席执行官本·米勒。本，很高兴你能参加我们的节目。
Maybe to start sort of big picture, Ben, just your viewers, you might not be familiar. Just explain, Ben, a little bit more about your innovation fund. Like what do you sort of offering everyday investors, Ben, and what's the problem you're solving for? Yeah, so we created the first public venture fund about four years ago. We went to the SEC and created this investment company that allows anyone to invest in venture capital. And then over the course of the last three and a half years, we've invested in Anthropic, OpenAI, Android, Databricks, Canva, basically among the top tech companies in the country. We have had about 100,000 ordinary investors invest in the fund over that time period invested about half a billion dollars. It grew our average client returns about 40% a year.
也许我们可以先从整体上来谈一下，Ben，给那些可能不太了解你的观众讲解一下。请你稍微详细介绍一下你的创新基金。比如说，你为普通投资者提供了什么产品，Ben，你们在解决什么问题呢？
大约四年前，我们创建了第一个公共风险投资基金。我们向美国证券交易委员会申请并成立了这家投资公司，让任何人都可以投资风险资本。在过去三年半的时间里，我们投资了一些国家顶尖的科技公司，如Anthropic、OpenAI、Android、Databricks以及Canva。在这个期间，大约有10万名普通投资者参与了我们的基金投资，总投资额约为5亿美元。我们的平均客户回报率每年增长约40%。
And then we listed it about two and a half weeks ago on New York Stock Exchange. The fund had a meteor increase from when we listed it, went up a lot. It spiked last week. It's kind of moderated to a little bit more normalized price. And the whole idea is that democratizing investing in the best private tech companies, private tech has been one of the most important sources of American growth. And yet ordinary people, everyday investors have not been able to access it, especially not in a low-cost regulated wrapper like VCX. Your point there being that you have these great American companies, Ben, but they're private and they're staying private for longer. Explain that trend to us.
大约两个半星期前，我们在纽约证券交易所上市了这只基金。自上市以来，基金的增长非常迅猛，上周甚至出现了飙升。目前价格已经稍微回调到一个更为正常的水平。我们的核心理念是，让投资最优秀的私人科技公司变得更加大众化。私人科技公司一直以来是美国增长的重要来源之一，但普通人、普通投资者一直难以低成本、合规地参与其中，尤其是像VCX这样的投资工具。问题在于，有很多优秀的美国公司，但它们是私营的，并且停留在私营状态的时间越来越长。请为我们解释这个趋势。
Why is that happening? Well, I mean, what's amazing is over the last 20 years, private companies can now raise all the capital you need in the private markets. You can raise primary capital. You can raise a secondary capital for employees and venture funds to cycle out. So at this point, private markets, rival public markets, you no longer need to be public. You heard to access capital for the company or for the employees. And so since there's no reason to go public anymore, and there's a lot of negatives of being public, a lot of regulations, a lot of drama, a lot of extra work, companies don't have to go public. So I would they. And so they're not.
为什么会这样呢？我的意思是，过去20年里，让人惊讶的是，私人公司现在可以在私募市场上筹集到所需的全部资金。你可以筹集到初级资本，也可以为员工和风险基金筹集到次级资本进行转换。因此，现在的私募市场可以与公开市场媲美，公司再也不需要上市来为企业或员工获取资金了。既然没有必要再上市，而且上市带来了许多负面因素，如大量的法规、琐事和额外工作，公司就没有必要上市。那么他们为什么要上市呢？所以他们就没有选择上市。
And so what's happened is over the last 10 years, I would bet you that the top 20 companies built in the last 20 years are all built in the private markets. There may not have been a world-class company built in the public markets in 20 years. And so as a consequence, American investors are missing out on a really important part of the economy. And that part of the economy is growing very quickly and becoming more and more important over time. Who is your investor, Ben, in this fund? I'm just curious. Do you have sort of line of sight into the kind of average demo?
在过去的10年里，我敢打赌，在过去20年中创立的顶尖20家公司都是在私营市场中建立的。可能在过去20年里，公共市场中没有出现过一家世界级公司。因此，美国投资者错失了经济中一个非常重要的部分。而这个部分正在迅速增长，并随着时间的推移变得越来越重要。我很想知道，Ben，这个基金的投资者是谁？你是否了解一下平均的投资者群体是什么样的？
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, our investors are every day person, average investment was $5,000. You know, it was 100,000 investors averaging about $5,000 in investment. Their average person is in their mid 30s. You know, they're normal like they work in tech, they work in a healthcare. They're just a normal person who previously could never have access to these companies. And so we made it possible to invest in the best companies in the world in a very low-cost wrapper. And now I think what's what's it's become more and more important at the moment because AI is a transformative technology. And if investors don't have access to this technology as an owner, not just as a consumer, I think it's going to have very significant social effects.
好的。我们的投资者都是普通人，平均投资额是5,000美元。大概有10万名投资者，他们的平均年龄在30多岁。你知道的，他们就是正常的上班族，比如在科技行业或者医疗行业工作。他们以前从未有机会投资这些公司。我们现在让他们能够以非常低的成本投资世界上最好的公司。我认为这在现在显得越来越重要，因为人工智能是一项具有变革性的技术。如果投资者不能作为所有者，而不仅仅是消费者来参与这项技术的发展，我认为这将会对社会产生非常显著的影响。
Then we mentioned in the intro this criticism from Citron and listen, you know, Citron speaks people, people tend to pay attention. They listen. And it sounds like what they're saying is, you know, your stock surge, they're arguing and now training kind of just way above the net net asset value. And here's what they posted on March 26 on X. Again, this is March 26. They said, listen, it's training at 400 plus its assets are worth 19 simple math. They say, what was, I mean, you obviously saw that. What was your response to that, Ben?
在开头部分，我们提到了Citron的批评。大家都知道，Citron发声时，人们往往会注意听。他们的意思似乎是，你们公司的股票激增，现在的交易价格远远高于净资产价值。他们在3月26日的X平台上发布了这样的消息。 是的，他们表示，股票价格是400多，但实际上资产的价值只有19，这就是他们所说的简单数学。你显然注意到了这一点，那么，Ben，你对此有什么回应呢？
Well, that was, you know, that was a week ago, the price is now moderated from it was a $5.50. Now it's about $100 a share. So I mean, you know, I mean, basically what happens in public markets is that lots of people can go long and go short. It's very, very normal in any stock. Typically, there'll be two to 10% of short sellers. This stock actually, I think, is only one or two percent short sellers. Very, very low right now, at least. And so some people like to grab news and that's basically how they drive their business. But for us, it's not really relevant.
好的，你知道，那是一个星期前的事了。当时价格为5.50美元，现在已经稳定到了每股约100美元。所以，我的意思是，你知道，基本上在公开市场中，很多人可以选择做多或做空。这在任何股票中都是非常正常的现象。通常会有2%到10%的空头卖家。而这只股票实际上我认为只有1%或2%的空头卖家，非常低，至少现在是这样。因此，一些人喜欢抓住新闻来推动他们的业务发展。但对我们来说，这并不太相关。
It's essentially like, I think about these great AI companies, the rocket companies, you know, what's these companies are, the most important companies emerging out of the private markets today. And if people don't want to invest in them, they don't have to. But I think it's really important that they are able to. Citron, Ben, they made this direct comparison between you all and destiny tech 100. They say it's the same product. And their point is they face the same issue they say and investors and their words ended up just getting destroyed there. Is that a fair comparison, Ben, between products? That's Citron is making.
基本上，我认为这些伟大的人工智能公司和航天公司是当今从私人市场中涌现出的最重要的公司。如果人们不想投资这些公司，他们完全可以选择不投资。但我认为，能有机会进行投资是非常重要的。Citron 和 Ben 对你们和 destiny tech 100 做了一个直接比较，他们声称你们提供的是相同的产品。他们的观点是，他们面临着相同的问题，他们说投资者最终遭遇了重大损失。这样的比较，Ben，是否公平？Citron 这样说。
I mean, I don't think it's very, I mean, there's some comparisons with both of us invest in private tech. I think that company had a different portfolio. As you have different portfolio, we had 100, we had 100,000 normal investors before we went public. I think those investors have done pretty well. All things considered. They're up over 100%. So to me, I don't really, I'm not really focused on where something trades in the short term. Like where there was a point when Amazon had fallen 98% and now it's a $2 trillion company. And so over the short term, the market is a voting machine of a long term is a weighing machine.
我觉得，我们之间确实有一些相似之处，比如我们都投资于私人科技公司。但我认为那家公司有不同的投资组合，而你的投资组合也不同。在我们公开上市之前，我们有10万名普通投资者。我认为总体来说，这些投资者表现得不错，他们的收益超过了100%。 至于我自己，我并不特别关注某个东西在短期内的市场表现。就像曾经有一段时间，亚马逊的股价下跌了98%，但现在它是一家市值两万亿美元的公司。因此，从短期来看，市场就像一个投票机，而从长期来看，它更像一个称重机。
I think that really, if you're a long-term investor, you're focused on AI, you're focused on deep tech, you're focused on technological change, then that's what we're about. And if you're not, if you're a trader, I don't know how to speak to traders. I'm not a trader. I'm not a short-term investor. Ben, great to have you on the show today, sir. We appreciate your time. Thank you.
我觉得，如果你是一个长期投资者，你应该关注人工智能、深度科技和技术变革，这正是我们的核心所在。而如果你不是，如果你是一个交易者，我不知道怎么跟交易者交流。我并不是一个交易者，也不是一个短期投资者。Ben，很高兴今天有你来参加节目。感谢你的时间。谢谢。
Thanks. Coming up, ETFs, you might not know who they want to consider as we kick off the second quarter. That's next on working catalysts. Equating ETFs, notching a nine-month low for inflows in March, still overall ETF volume continues to rise and there may be more opportunities ahead as we kick off the second quarter. Todd Sons, your teagus, your chief ETF and technical strategist joins me now for this week's ETF report brought to you by Pimpco. Todd, walk us through what areas you have seen over this past week, past month, get hit the hardest.
谢谢。接下来，我们将讨论 ETF。在这个季度开始时，您可能不知道它们会考虑哪些方面。在接下来的“工作催化器”节目中，我们会深入探讨。虽然 3 月份 ETF 的资金流入量达到了九个月来的最低点，但 ETF 的整体交易量仍在上升，并且在这个季度开始时可能会有更多的机会。今天加入我们的是 Todd Sons，他是您的首席 ETF 和技术策略师，为您带来由 Pimpco 提供的本周 ETF 报告。Todd，请为我们讲解一下在过去一周和过去一个月中，哪些领域受到了最严重的冲击。
So I think it's actually if you've had volatility rise, if you've had geopolitical volatility rise and that has you filtered in, as you mentioned, a nine-month low for equity ETF inflows. Well below a six-month average, well below a 12-month average, restraint for investors is on the rise. I like that because you're cooling off of sentiment. You're seeing flows out of tech to a pinch and you're also seeing some money come out of areas like financials too. I think this is all necessary but painful to some extent.
我认为，如果市场波动性增加，地缘政治不稳定性增加，并且这已经导致股票ETF资金流入降到九个月来的低点，这大大低于六个月和十二个月的平均水平，说明投资者的谨慎情绪在上升。这种情况我认为是好的，因为它让市场情绪有所降温。我们看到资金从科技板块流出，就连金融板块也有资金撤出。我觉得这一切都是必要的，尽管会有些痛苦。
Now you said in this note as well that this is sort of similar to what we saw last year. Of course around this time now, let's remind our viewers. This is just ahead of the liberation day. Can't even believe that it's been almost a year. So what do you make of that similar sort of move that you see in? If you think about the backdrop, 23 and 24 strong years, and then we got very aggressive on the sentiment front via flows and investor surveys and then the liberation day the tariffs were the catalyst took more cause of correction.
你在这张便条中提到，这种情况有点类似于我们去年看到的。当然，在这个时候，让我们提醒我们的观众，这正好是在解放日前夕。真不敢相信这已经快一年了。那么，你如何看待这种类似的走势呢？如果考虑背景因素，2023和2024年是强劲的年份，然后通过资金流动和投资者调查，我们在情绪方面变得非常激进，而解放日是关税成为催化剂，导致更多的调整。
We rebounded great. And then now it's a similar environment where folks were very bullish and now we just have this kind of war event to wipe out sentiment. So I would expect sentiment to be cooling equity flows to cool off and there'll be a little bit of hesitancy, right? Is it all clear or not? And I like that because it allows you to rebuild and rally in the back half of the day. Sort of get back into this market. Exactly. And now one thing that you did see is industrials lead sector flows since November, I believe.
我们恢复得很好。现在的情况与之前相似，当时大家非常乐观，但现在这种战争事件打击了市场情绪。我预计市场情绪会降温，资金流入股市的速度会放慢，人们会有些犹豫，对吧？情况是否明朗了？我喜欢这样，因为这让你有机会在一天后半段重新建立信心并发动反弹，重新进入这个市场。没错，你还可以看到，自11月以来，工业股一直是行业资金流入的领先者。
So what do you make of that? And also is that a risk moving into the second quarter given that we've seen this string within the sector? Right. So there's no doubt industrials have been leadership. Right. This is a broad sector. You know, machinery and defense professional services and whatnot. I look at sector flows as a temperature. It's gotten very, very hot. So I'm worried about the tactical risk for industrials in the second quarter that maybe you could get a little bit more volatility, a prolonged pullback.
你怎么看待这个问题？另外，考虑到我们在这个行业中看到的持续增长，这是否会在第二季度带来风险？是的，毫无疑问，工业板块一直是领头羊。这是一个广泛的行业，包括机械、国防、专业服务等。我将行业资金流动视为一种温度，目前温度非常高。因此，我担心在第二季度中工业板块的短期风险，可能会出现更多波动甚至长期回调。
I would use it opportunistically. Just be mindful that if you're there in a tactical sense, I would be mindful that you're not alone. It's a very consensus long here. So just stay patient on the industrial. What's the timeline look like for the type of investors that you're watching right now? I would say three to six months quarter to quarter, right? You know, longer term, we still like the sector, but in the very over the next three to six months, when for some of our clients that matters, that's the risk.
我会在合适的时机利用它。不过要注意，如果你出于战术目的在那里，要注意你并不孤单。在这里有很多人持有相同的看法。所以在工业领域要保持耐心。你现在关注的投资者类型的时间线是什么样的？我会说是三到六个月，逐季度的，对吧？从长期来看，我们仍然看好这个行业，但在未来的三到六个月内，对于我们的一些客户来说，这是需要注意的风险。
Yeah. All right. So let's say your mindset into the second quarter. What are some ETFs that you're looking at that people might not know? So one of the extra I'd like to do is say, okay, you have the core of your portfolio, the S&P 500. We know it's large cap growth. It's AI dominant. How can you complement it? Right. So we're looking at risk managed strategies, buffery ETFs because they protect on the downside. We are looking at low-vol ETFs in case of volatility. It's high. You want to have the low-vol exposure. And then we're also looking at thematic sectors, tech financials utilities, especially in the actively managed space to help complement that S&P exposure.
好的。那么，让我们来讨论一下进入第二季度时你的投资思路。有哪些ETF是你在关注的，而人们可能不太了解的？我通常会建议，在你的投资组合中，以标普500作为核心，我们都知道它是大盘成长型并且以人工智能为主导。那么，要如何进行补充呢？我们在考虑风险管理策略，像缓冲型ETF，因为它们可以在市场下跌时提供保护。我们也在关注低波动ETF，以应对可能的市场波动。如果波动性很高，那么你就需要有低波动的投资。然后，我们还在关注主题板块，例如科技、金融和公用事业，特别是那些积极管理的领域，以帮助补充标普500的投资。
Yeah. And now some of those particular names, there was one that stood out to me, this Invesco Bloomberg Financial Data Providers ETF. It actually is sort of betting on the exchanges that are looking to get into prediction markets. Exactly. So why is that now the time maybe to consider that in Q2? So prediction markets are clear again, big, whether they are having regulatory issues or not, we'll see. But it's a question for our clients. How do we get exposure to this? So FDIQ, which is from Invesco, takes all the exchanges, right? CME, CBOE, ICE, and ones abroad too. Packages them up into an ETF for a niche-y financial-themed ETF.
是的。现在有些特定的名字，其中有一个引起了我的注意，那就是Invesco Bloomberg Financial Data Providers ETF。这实际上是在某种程度上押注那些希望进入预测市场的交易所。那么，为什么可能在第二季度考虑这个呢？预测市场无论是否面临监管问题，依然是一个大趋势。这是一个我们客户关心的问题：我们如何在这个领域获得投资机会？由Invesco推出的FDIQ，将所有这些交易所，比如CME、CBOE、ICE，以及一些国外的交易所，整合进一个主题鲜明的金融ETF中。
And that's the way because those companies are getting it to prediction markets. They want to be there. Whether you like them or not, it's clearly an important factor. And so we look at as another way to say, hey, you have financials, but it's mostly banks, get the more thematic exposure from financials via the exchanges. Any other one or two topics? I would take a look at TTEQ from T-Row. That's actively managed tech exposure because tech is going through a speed bump now. Okay, lots to watch out for the beginning of Q2 at the state tuned. Thanks so much, Todd. Appreciate your time.
这些公司正在进入预测市场，这是发展的趋势。他们希望参与其中。不论你是否喜欢这些公司，它们显然是一个重要因素。因此，我们认为，通过交易所获得更多关于金融领域的主题曝光是一种新方式，而不仅仅是依赖银行。如果有其他一两个主题可以关注，我建议看看T-Row提供的TTEQ，它是主动管理的科技投资，因为科技行业现在正经历一些波动。在第二季度初期，我们有很多需要关注的内容。感谢你的时间，Todd。
And coming up, Nissan America's Chair on the Outlook for the region, you're watching Market Catalyst. See with us. Let's get a check on crypto brought to you by the National Cryptocurrency Association. What we're seeing now is you make your way into Q2 also the first day of April. Is it a bit of a return to crypto? Bitcoin moving higher up about 2% Ethereum also moving higher up about 3%. And if you take a look over the past two days, what we have seen is this larger momentum return to cryptocurrency with Bitcoin now up about 2% over the past two days.
即将到来的是日产美国董事长对该地区前景的探讨，您正在收看《市场催化剂》。请继续关注。下面让我们来看一下由国家加密货币协会提供的加密货币情况。现在是第二季度的开始，也是四月的第一天。是否是一种对加密货币的回归呢？比特币上涨了约2%，以太坊也上涨了约3%。如果我们看看过去两天，我们可以看到加密货币市场出现了更大的动能回归，比特币在过去两天内上涨了约2%。
To take a look at our heat map, what we're seeing there across the board is green and intraday trading across the board. Here, including Solana, which was down earlier this week. Now up about 2% as we make our way into today's trading session. And this sort of momentum is extending into crypto stocks as well. We have Robinhood and Coinbase trying to hold on to some momentum here. Not too much when it comes to strategy PayPal Circle. They are down. But would you take a look at year to date? This is an industry that definitely has gone a bit rocked by investors. We have Robinhood Coinbase down double digits, Robinhood down 37%, Coinbase down 22 and a half percent.
查看我们的热力图时，我们看到整体市场呈现绿色，日内交易也显示出上升趋势。其中，Solana 在本周早些时候下跌，现在在今日交易时段上涨了大约2%。这种势头也延伸到了加密货币股票领域。Robinhood 和 Coinbase 正在努力维持这一势头。但在战略方面，PayPal 和 Circle 的表现不佳，它们的股价下跌。不过，从年初至今来看，这个行业确实受到了投资者的冲击。Robinhood 和 Coinbase 的股价均出现双位数的下降，Robinhood 下跌了37%，Coinbase 下跌了22.5%。
So definitely something to watch out for. As we do see a bit of optimism return to the cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, the New York Auto Show is in full swing with the automotive industry facing several geopolitical challenges ahead. Yahoo, finances, processing, and green is down at the Auto Show now. Cross-ready. Thanks a lot. So we're at the Auto Show. Oh, yeah, hey, I've seen a lot of good stuff out here. But yeah, we're at the Nissan stand now. The company is in the midst of a turnaround. So they say, I'm familiar with Christian Munia. He's the head of Nissan America's here. Christian, thanks for joining us.
当然，这绝对是值得关注的事情。随着我们看到加密货币市场的乐观情绪逐渐回升。同时，纽约车展正在如火如荼地进行中，汽车行业正面临着一些地缘政治挑战。Yahoo财经的记者正在车展现场。感谢大家。那么，我们现在就在车展上。哦，是的，我看到了很多好的东西。目前我们在日产展台。公司正处于转型期。熟悉这一情况的是克里斯蒂安·穆尼亚，他是日产美洲的负责人。克里斯蒂安，感谢你的加入。
So we talk about Nissan a little bit of issues before in the path, but now things are improving. Talk to you about that turnaround and how that reset is going so far in 2026. I think it's super exciting, because in the last few months we've had some pretty good success re-growing the business again. And we're rediscovered that scale is important in our industry. That scale is giving you the ability to get the cost of the right place and get the product at an affordable price for people to be able to buy them.
我们之前谈过日产的一些问题，但现在情况正在改善。请谈谈这些转变以及它们在2026年进展如何。我觉得这非常令人兴奋，因为在过去几个月里，我们在重振业务方面取得了不少成功。我们重新认识到规模在我们这个行业的重要性。规模让我们能够把成本控制在合理的位置，并提供对消费者来说价格适中的产品。
And we're bringing some really good product lately. We've launched the new leaf. We launched the new centra, we launched the new armada, and all these products are doing pretty well in the market place. We've been growing the business with fastest growing brand in retail in the US for the last six months. And we're very proud of that. I'm proud of the team. And we're going to keep doing our best to keep that trend. I think the frontier might be part of that, part of that story too. So Nissan wants to grow sales by 10% I believe this year, which is a bit more for the company. President Trump also talking about the company positive things to say about you. Congratulations. He's saying I'm building more in the US even massive plant in Tennessee, I believe.
我们最近推出了一些非常好产品。我们推出了新的Leaf、新的Centra和新的Armada，这些产品在市场上表现都相当不错。在过去的六个月里，我们已经成为美国零售市场上增长最快的品牌，这让我们感到非常自豪。我为团队感到骄傲，我们会继续努力保持这一趋势。我认为Frontier也可能成为这个故事的一部分。因此，我相信日产希望今年的销售额增长10%，这对公司来说是一个不小的目标。特朗普总统也对公司发表了积极评价，恭喜你们！他说我们将在美国建设更多设施，包括在田纳西州的一个大型工厂。
Talk to me about how you're going to improve or sort of build up American manufacturing here in Nissan. You're already building a lot of cars here anyway. So we have three plants in the US. We have two plants in Tennessee, one for powertrain, one for manufacturing, and we have one big plant in Mississippi. We're very proud of our people building the best cars we've ever built. And obviously the US product, the US product that are not impacted by tariffs are the one that have been really growing the most. My baby, the frontier V6 that you can see behind, but also the pass finder and the rogue have been very, very successful and on infinity side the QX60 yesterday will last week will reveal the QX65. We're very, very bullish on what we're going to be able to accomplish with these cars, all made in the US for the US.
请跟我谈谈您打算如何在日产公司提升或发展美国的制造业。您已经在这里生产了很多汽车。我们在美国有三个工厂：两个在田纳西州，一个是动力总成厂，一个是制造工厂，还有一个大型工厂在密西西比州。我们为我们的员工感到自豪，因为他们制造出了我们有史以来最好的汽车。显然，那些不受关税影响的美国产品是增长最快的。比如，我的骄傲，您背后能看到的Frontier V6，还有Pathfinder和Rogue车型都取得了非常大的成功。在英菲尼迪方面，QX60刚在上周发布了QX65。我们对这些全美制造、专供美国市场的汽车所能取得的成就充满信心。
So you need to understand that when the tariff came in play, obviously we had a plan to localize aggressively, but the tariff was not a bad thing for us because it forced us to really accelerate our plan. And we're around 45% of a volume sold in the US, made in the US. Now we're 60, 65% want to go to 80%, we're going to bring a hybrid technology to the US. And that's the rule of the game and we need to build where we sell. That's, that's, there's no magic. We're in a big corporation and that's what we need to do. Obviously we have some cars coming from Mexico and affordability is important.
所以你需要理解，当关税开始实施时，我们已经计划积极地实现本地化。对我们来说，关税并不算坏事，因为它迫使我们加快了计划。我们大约有45%的产品是在美国销售的，而这些是在美国生产的。现在已经提升到了60%到65%，并且我们希望达到80%。我们计划将混合动力技术引入美国。这是竞争规则，我们需要在销售的地方进行生产。这是必须的，对于一个大型企业来说，这就是我们需要做的。显然，我们也有一些汽车来自墨西哥，保持价格合理也很重要。
So, hopefully we're going to get some good news on the tariff from Mexico. Still at 25% hard to sustain. You know, I know that the kicks in central are built in Mexico and that's kind of the problem for affordabilities. How do you get those cars into the US competitively and USMCA negotiations are coming up. What do you want to hear from those negotiations to make it such that you can bring, so bring these cars into America because they're cheap cars. People need them here. We need them in the US. And I think that's the, that's the discussion we've had with the US government and the Mexican government.
希望我们能从墨西哥那边得到关于关税的好消息。现在的关税率是25%，很难维持下去。我知道现在在墨西哥生产的车，比如Kicks，是大家买得起的。但我们怎么能有竞争力地将这些车进口到美国呢？而且USMCA（美墨加协定）的谈判也快到了。你希望从这些谈判中听到什么内容，好让这些便宜的车能够进入美国市场呢？这里的人真的需要这些车。我们在这方面和美国政府以及墨西哥政府一直有在沟通和讨论。
I think it's important that we keep the affordable cars, the entry sedan and three SUVs. Made in Mexico makes a lot of sense because obviously labor rate are a little lower than they are in the US. And ultimately there are a lot of components that we put on a central and a kicks made in, assembled in Mexico, but the parts most of them are coming from the US. A lot of engineering resource is in Michigan as well. So altogether is not a bad thing for the economy and it's good for the American people because they can afford these cars. And enough of these cars that $50,000, $60,000 that people can't afford, right?
我认为保持经济型汽车，包括入门级轿车和三款SUV是很重要的。在墨西哥制造非常有意义，因为那里的人工成本明显低于美国。而且我们在墨西哥组装的很多车型，比如Versa和Kicks，很多零部件都是由美国提供的。密歇根州也有很多工程资源。所以总体来说，这对经济不是坏事，对美国人也有好处，因为他们能买得起这些汽车。那些售价五、六万美元的汽车，并不是每个人都能负担得起，对吧？
You know, we were talking about off-air about cars like the new X-Tera, even cars like the Frontier. Trying to make these cars run $40,000, right, to be affordable for regular people. The Versa was one of those cars which no longer is that duly departed Versa, right? Under $20,000, you know, it got you around town. How do you, what do you tell Americans that if you're going to make it harvester import cars in Mexico, how can I address that affordability? What can you do? I think it's part of the DNF or product and a brand to be affordable. Affordability, durability, quality, and at the same time, I have a spice.
你知道，我们之前在节目外聊过一些车，比如新的X-Tera，还有像Frontier这样的车。我们尝试让这些汽车的价格在4万美元左右，以便让普通人也能负担得起。Versa就是曾经这样的一款车，但现在已经不再生产了，对吧？它的价格不到2万美元，可以满足你在城里的日常出行。那你要怎么告诉美国人，如果你要在墨西哥进口汽车，该如何解决这个可负担性的问题呢？我认为这是产品和品牌的一部分，应该是可负担的。可负担性、耐用性、质量，同时还要有一些特色。
You know, we're not bringing vanilla products. We're not appliance. We love cars. We're passionate about cars. And it's not only about mobility. You know, the car is an extension of your personality and I think with the design we have and the product we have, we bring some passion at the same time. With X-Tera, we're going to bring that. That's really the DNA of Nissan. Affordability, quality, and the edge, the spice and X-Tera is the new baby. We're going to bring in a couple of years. That's going to be the symbol of the turnaround of Nissan and big success and growth in the United States, which is the power engine of Nissan globally.
你知道，我们并不是带来普通的产品。我们不是在做家电。我们热爱汽车，对汽车充满激情。而且这不仅仅关乎移动出行。汽车是您个性的延伸。我认为，通过我们的设计和产品，我们同时带来了热情。通过X-Tera，我们将实现这一点。这就是日产的DNA：实惠、质量、个性，还有刺激感。X-Tera是我们即将推出的新车型。几年后，它将成为日产转型的象征，并在美国取得巨大成功和增长，而美国是日产全球的重要动力引擎。
Yeah, you know, we saw the new Z-Nismo over there at the six-speed manual. That's going to be my pick. But the frontier is a good car to you. So, we're at the New York Auto Show. Talk to me about why this show is so important to Nissan's tri-state area. A lot of buyers here. What are those buyers looking at on the floor here from the Nissan one of you?
是的，你知道，我们在那边看到了新款六速手动变速的Z-Nismo。那辆车会是我的首选。但Frontier对你来说也是辆好车。我们现在在纽约车展。跟我谈谈为什么这个展会对日产在三州地区如此重要。这里有很多买家。这些买家在日产展区都看些什么呢？
I think it's a huge market and it's also an opportunity for us to celebrate, you know, the new portfolio we have, the fact that we're bringing hybrids this year on the CSUV, the compact SUV on the road. This is one of the key markets for Nissan in the United States. A big, least market. We have a lot of very strong dealer foot print in New York and that's really also an international show. It's one of the few that has remained a big show for us and we keep investing in it.
我认为这是一个巨大的市场，也是一个让我们庆祝的机会。你知道，我们今年在紧凑型SUV上引入了混合动力车。这是日产在美国的主要市场之一，是一个很大的租赁市场。在纽约，我们有很多实力强大的经销商，而且这确实是一个国际化的展会。这样的展会为数不多，但对我们来说仍然是一个重要的展览，我们会继续投资。
I think the Z-Nismo manual transmission is a little bit of a symbol of what Nissan is about. It's not only about mobility, what I said. It's about fun excitement. Obviously, mobility is a key component of it. It's a affordable fun that we bring to market. So, I think the three things are building interesting cars that are that are that are that are you're passionate behind. It's affordability. It's also building an American, right? I think that's the main in the US.
我认为Z-Nismo手动变速器有点象征着日产的品牌精神。不仅仅是关于出行，我的意思是，这也关乎乐趣和刺激。当然，出行是其中的重要组成部分。这是我们带给市场的实惠又有乐趣的体验。所以，我认为关键的三点是：制造让人充满激情的有趣汽车、实惠、以及打造一个符合美国市场的产品。我认为这就是日产在美国市场的核心要素。
Okay. Christian Muni, Nissan Americas. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. Thank you. It's been a pleasure. Back over to you, Brooke. Expect to hear a full review of what car we should be looking out for, 2020, 2020, 27. So, more to say on that, but that's it for our catalysts. I'm Brooke DiPomma. Thanks so much for watching. We're young who find it ahead.
好的。我是Christian Muni，来自日产美洲。非常感谢您的加入。谢谢。谢谢。这是我的荣幸。接下来交给Brooke。我们期待听到关于2027年值得关注的汽车的全面评测。后续会有更多内容要说，但我们的主要话题到此为止。我是Brooke DiPomma。非常感谢您的观看。我们是年轻的一代，前途光明。